Sułkowski: Closed system

Since yesterday (5 March 2025) there has been a large stir due to statements made by the Confederate candidate for president – Sławomir Mentzen¹ concerning the Law and Justice and how both parties should treat each another in this campaign. The Dutch editor himself, who interviewed the Confederate candidate on television, was somewhat amazed by the conciliative character of Mentzen's statement, who, like a combination of a peace lamb with a large strategy, told about how it was mainstream polling by artificially pumping support for him “trying to divide right-wing voters”. The leader of fresh Hope explained that, of course, it was about Confederate and PiS voters and that disputes between the voters of these parties were not essential for anything. What would be the intent of this change in narrative? Mentzen, like a full bunch of supposedly right-wing commentaries, talks about the tragic script of "the system's completion" if the presidential election was won by Rafał Trzaskowski, due to the fact that at the time the full power would lie in the hands of Donald Tusk and his crew.

But to begin with, the surprise of Sławomir Mentzen's words is very late. Since its inception, the Confederacy has observed any cracks in the communicative and the language that politicians of this organization began to usage since the 2023 parliamentary elections. At this point, no blame should be placed on the situation surrounding the expulsion of Korwin-Mikke, which was the right move, but was simply the consequence of a change in the Confederacy line. It is hard to close your eyes to the correlation between the appearance in the organization of Przemysław Wipler and this change in the line, especially considering the "making" of this political pest in earlier times. The legal tricks worthy of being bent by the Law and Justice have led to another crack, throwing out Grzegorz Braun and thus as it turns out to be beginning the door to the Confederate alliance with the Law and Justice. Even then, the masks dropped completely, for erstwhile Braun was removed from the ranks of the organization on 17 January 2025² is little than a week later 1 of the Confederate politicians and at the same time Vice president of fresh Hope – Bartłomiej Pejo clearly stated that they do not exclude coalition with Jarosław Kaczyński party³. It is not essential to remind that Mr Pejo gave fuel to narrate to supporters of Grzegorz Braun, who for a long time pointed out that the Confederate had been moving towards mainstream and alliances with those who had been sitting comfortably for 20 years at the table and that the table was to be thrown over. Mr Pejo's message was so the announcement of the script prepared for a long time and making the right ground for something that was most predictable. On February 24, 2025, Marshal Bosak himself, who is besides crucial on television, repeated the signal to his constituents that the ground for an alliance with the Law and Justice is being prepared, due to the fact that erstwhile asked "with whom the Confederate would be able to establish a coalition", he replied that "with anyone wishing to implement a program beneficial to Poland." erstwhile asked if he was besides saying no to this scenario, he argued that it is not a organization that implements specified a program. However, erstwhile asked about specified a coalition with the Law and Justices, he answered strongly: ‘Is this a organization that wants to implement a program beneficial to Poland?’, the editor replied, ‘it must already be you to assess’, what the marshal said: ‘I hope’⁴. What happened in the opinion of Krzysztof Bosak and the Confederate politicians, that they allowed themselves specified a utmost semantic shift? Why did the Law and Justice abruptly become the right and Mentzen counts the utmost socialist and revolutionary faction of Kaczyński into the same ideological camp as the Confederate? What does the marshal hope for? I am not naive that after years of listening to the performance and criticism of the PiS of Bosak's statements after just specified questions as the Republic asked on TV, he abruptly pressed the brake and concluded that "he hopes that it remains for him to measure whether the PiS wants to implement a program beneficial to Poland". After all, we know the Confederate's communicative and the way it was presented – whenever possible, all politicians of the organization declared that they were not curious in any alliance with any mainstream party, due to the fact that their goal is to flip the table and change the quality of Polish politics. Is PiS not abruptly liable for a number of errors pointed out by the Confederacy over the years and on which the Confederacy is designated de facto auDid she? The Kaczyński organization is not liable for ruining Polish farmers, entrepreneurs and average citizens paying always higher bills Green Deal? However, it was not with Morawiecki's hands that the situation was highly unfavourable to Poland, which Bosak pushed in discussions with the erstwhile Prime Minister in the debate of the Jagiellonian Club moderated by Jan Rokita last September? The Law and Justice organization is not to blame for the terrible management during COVID, for thousands of bankruptcies, closed companies and, above all, for over 200 000 excess deaths? They don't should be liable anymore?

As you can see, the dream of fresh quality in politics ended comparatively quickly. However, in order to guarantee that voters are not overshocked, the communicative mentioned at the beginning of the narration about "the completion of the system" is built. And although the win of Trzaskowski will not be beneficial to Poland and it is simply a very unfavourable scenario, it is telling people that peaceful relations with the PiS are necessary, which is fundamentally ending the apparent mistakes of the erstwhile ruling organization is simply a complete nonsense and making out of its own electorate of idiots. What are the scenarios? The first and at the same time unrealistic is that Trzaskowski obtained more than 50% of all the votes in the election. Does any ceasefire or the silent alliance of both parties change anything? If so, this will be the consequence of precisely this tactic, due to the fact that if 2 parties put out their candidates aiming at the same electorate – right-wing, then the support will be broken and part of the electorate may not even go to elections. Why should a Confederate vote for Mentzen erstwhile he sets himself in the same block as the PiS and for years the Confederate electorate has been profiled for anti-PiS and anti-PO according to the slogan “PiS, PO 1 evil”? The second script is 1 in which the second circular will take place, and that will undoubtedly include Trzaskowski, and the same script has 2 variants – with Mentzen or Nawrock in the second round. If Mentzen enters the second round, it's not due to the fact that he starts patting himself on the back with the PiS and letting his eye out to their constituents. Just as the Confederate Iron Electorate was built on the communicative “PiS, PO 1 evil”, so the Iron Electorate PiS is built on the communicative “or we or nobody” and “Confederation is Russian onuce”. Mentzen only has a chance for a second circular if he would keep his current narrative, due to the fact that 1 of its essential components is to play on reliability based on the argument "we never sat at a table with PiS or PO". The current attitude of the leader of the fresh Hope shoots himself in the foot, due to the fact that entering into any alliance with the duopol organization he throws out the best weapon among the mark group of the tired PiS and PO, so ready to vote for him. For this reason, I believe that the Confederacy has made a strategical mistake and despite its tremendous work in the campaign, Mentzen greatly reduces his chances of entering the second circular unless he has already crossed them off. And the assumptions of the leader of the fresh Hope on the script of winning with Trzaskowski in the second circular were absolutely right – Mentzen did absolutely nothing to collect the voices of the PiS voters then, who more than Russian onuc do not digest anyone than Tusk. If Karol Nawrocki enters the second round, which is simply a very probable scenario, then only then would the Confederate gotta choose a variant of action – support Trzaskowski, Nawrocki or no one? However, this would not disrupt Mentzen's run and his image as a candidate another than a duopol or force any silent alliances with anyone. Both Mentzen and the full Confederation moving towards the Law and Justice have led to a situation where only the Law and Justice will be won here. Why? due to the fact that Nawrocki in the second circular will alternatively lose to Trzaskowski and the Confederacy will stay with this alliance and support for the Law and Justice like Himilsbach with English. He won't win anything on the political phase – he'll join the losing camp by crossing off his main strength of the anti-duopol-based organization while giving a clear signal to the PiS that this organization is handing out cards and if the Confederate has something to do with the table, he can at most sit on a stool lower than this Kaczyński president. Therefore, any fairy tale about the "downfall of the system" can be spared – the strategy has just closed, due to the fact that the only organization that had a chance to break in it makes all effort to blend into 1 of the revolutionary and conflicted camps, thus perpetuating the image we have been in for over 20 years.

Marcin Sułkowski