Arthur Troost: late published ECFR report Paweł Zerka compares the European Union to Barbieland, pointing to the dissonance between its bright ideas and their actual implementation. The fresh Euro-elections have shown, for example, that despite the motto "united in diversity", diversity in the EU is not so respected.
Adam Balcer: This thesis will shortly be confirmed if we look at the fresh elections to the European Parliament, the lists of candidates, the results and besides what the election run looked like. We will see that certain groups, especially migrants and descendants of migrants, people of a different skin colour than white, yet people who are not Christians or post-Christians, have no proportional representation. In the second case, it is primarily about Muslims, but in the wider Central and east Europe 1 can add to this the Roma community, which is poorly seen in the electoral lists, and even more so in the Euro-Parliament, in which there is presently – for the first time in years – no Roma.
The study states that only 3% of Euro MPs come from minorities, with around 10% of the population of many EU countries. The author emphasized the associated electoral abstinence of number groups and not only them, because, for example, there are akin problems with the voting of young people. Does this low political participation undermine the state of democracy in the Union?
There is surely a problem with mobilising people from number groups, due to the fact that there is frequently the belief that nothing will change. It is only sometimes that a peculiar politician manages to inspire enthusiasm, and Obama has done so in the United States.
As for young people, this looks different from country to country, as the elections to the European Parliament have shown well, but there is indeed a general tendency that young people are not as politically active as older people. Not to mention exceptional cases, specified as October 15 in Poland. Electoral abstinence puts us in the incorrect circle, due to the fact that if people from unprivileged groups do not vote, have no political representation, it is hard for the situation to change.
This is evidently a cliché, but until we overcome, for example, the apathy of young people, we will prosecute the political agenda of people of retirement age. At the same time, we can't escape the demography. Europeans are getting older. This is well seen in the example of women's representation – there is simply a very strong correlation between their presence in politics and the improvement of the social and economical situation of women.
On the another hand, voting youths associate mainly with supporting the far right.
That's the part of the youth who votes. That's the problem. The tendency to vote for the far right is stronger among young men, as can be seen besides in Poland, but the low turnout only emphasizes this. Radical Right The mobilisation of young people is better, but this does not mean that the results of the elections among this group reflect the views of all young people in a proportionate manner.
Especially since there are countries specified as France, Italy or Sweden, where the voting youth is clearly more left-wing than older generations.
The reaction to the increase in support for the far right and its eating of the mainstream centreright may be a akin process on the left side of the political scene. On the French Left now France Discipline Mélenchona has the strongest position within the left front, which is not good either. In addition, there are more and more national-left hybrids specified as Sahry Wagenknecht. The extremes associated with different environments are increasing, although for Poland it is abstraction, due to the fact that Left is in a dramatically weak situation and much more is the emergence in the popularity of the far right.
Of course, it is crucial to behave as young people, but in blaming her for the results of the Confederacy you can see the desire to make individual a scapegoat.
Among the elderly, the Confederate slow begins to gain support, let alone the PiS, which is besides in fact a far right party, although little radical, and goes to another groups of voters. It is akin at EU level. In the European Parliament we will find a full array, from complete radicals, like Grzegorz Braunwhich no faction wants through a group AfD and her colleagues, to the Patriots' Europe Orbán of Le Pen or Salvini, finally: the European Conservative and Reformist Party.
A choice of color?
As we look at the results of the Euro-election, we will see an increase in support for extremist right-wing forces, as the study besides shows. Older voters frequently vote for parties that are comparatively little radical, but inactive belong to the utmost political environment. Although the Law and Justice has late radicalized due to the fact that the full political scene is radicalizing, which is besides due to the actions of the civilian Coalition. In public opinion polls a fewer years ago or even a fewer months ago, voters of the current ruling coalition in matters concerning e.g. refugees, the right to asylum or the situation on the border were much more liberal.
Their attitude changed due to what they hear from politicians, leaders. These, of course, will say they respond to social sentiments. It is becoming a vicious ellipse due to the fact that it is politicians who mostly form social sentiments.
If we look at the fresh electoral campaigns, it will turn out that the anti-immigrant slogans that drive the modern utmost right work on an equal footing in countries with large immigration and where it is insignificant. For example, the issue of reception of asylum seekers has grown to the rank of political crisis in the Netherlands, where 50 000 people are granted asylum all year, but besides in much larger Poland, which accepts 5 times less. Isn't there a paradox here?
Once it was said that there might be anti-Semitism without Jews and on a akin basis Islamophobia can work – without Muslims. It is worth to think about what changed in Poland, for example, that the Civic Coalition besides started playing Islamophobia, of course specified in the version of "light" compared to PiS. Why does he usage arguments referring to fear? How is it that in alleged "left-liberal" media, major newspapers and stations, support for this kind of government rhetoric prevails? Why do 85 percent of Poles support the unique right in the EU to usage weapons by services at the border with Belarus, breaking the constitution and global regulations? A climate of moral panic developed around security, migration.
This is mostly a substance of our regional thought of the West. We put all Western migration policies in 1 bag, many in 1 breath mention France and Germany, Sweden and the Netherlands. Yet in each of these countries the situation is different. But with moral panic, you might as well believe in the Martian landing and blame them for all the evil.
Isn't this just a political strategy, easy and convenient to use?
Yes, it is simply a large substitute subject – and for the ruling and opposition forces. In an expanding number of countries, e.g. in Poland or the Czech Republic, mainstream joins specified strategies. It resonates among people due to the fact that we turn them on with fear. There is besides a strong correlation between basing your cognition on social media and sympathy for cultural identities, homogeneity while at the same time viewing an ‘foreign’ as a threat.
If, among average conservatives, the center and the left, no 1 is able to stand up to this, to exposure untruth, to manipulate facts, to exaggerate problems in the West, then we have a recipe for developing xenophobic sentiments.
Of course, politicians of the main parties will say that they read CBOS investigation and it follows that illegal migration is an crucial issue for Poles. Okay, let's get them to read those tests again. What's more important? wellness care. Is that what they're saying? During the COVID-19 pandemic, 2 100 and tens of thousands of Poles "over norm" died. This is the biggest failure in people since planet War II. This should be discussed in Poland. People say wellness is the most crucial thing, but politicians like not to remember it. It is the dominant belief that wellness care has been, is and will be weak and will never change.
Unfortunately, various factors have led to the fact that anti-immigrant threads are very popular in many countries of the region, which sometimes looks completely absurd, due to the fact that it turns out that these Muslims on the place are, colloquially speaking, as much as the cat cried. Politicians will say they're blowing us for safety, protecting us from Islam. They could be asked whether if the West is so terrible by Muslims, they should not “save” Polish citizens, doing anything to guarantee that they do not live and visit Londonists.
The study besides suggests that this may be an component of ‘getting up off your knees’, an effort to appreciate the West, for which the leading relation has long dominated. See, the West falls by immigrants, there is no Sweden or France, but we are inactive this one-national, safe country.
It is comic that if we looked more closely at the EU countries, it would turn out that the most Muslim country of the Union is Bulgaria, where for centuries a large number of Islamists have lived. Or that in any east European countries we will find a truly large number of Roma whose socio-economic situation is much worse than the Muslim communities in the West. This is the only thing we do not want to talk about, and alternatively a black image of selected Western countries, even in terms of crime, is created.
But does anyone in Poland say that the number of murders per capita is respective times higher in Latvia than in Sweden? Not to mention comparisons with the United States. At the same time, it is besides a problem for political elites in Europe, because, for example, the French Minister of the Interior after the execution of a 15-year-old kid with firearms in Poitiers said that there is simply a mexicanization of France. I'd put him on a plane, transport him to Mexico Colma, the most dangerous of the major cities in the world, and say, "get along." respective 100 times more people die in shootings than in Poitiers.
Europe's drama is the ease with which we come to be convinced of the deep crisis inside and to exaggerate our problems.
But how do we get out of this pessimism or even defest? What to do with the increasing popularity of ethnonationalism, which the study considers to be 1 of the main threats to the future of a united Europe and to democracy itself?
The crucial thing is not to become convinced that as societies we are monoliths. In Poland, we will find a group of people who have definitely a negative attitude towards Muslims and a larger group that has a alternatively negative attitude. More like negative for refugees. It's alternatively negative for people with black skin. I guess. This means that they are not hardened in their views and can be recovered. You gotta fight for this group, talk to people who hesitate, and then be able to influence those more determined.
This is simply a task for mainstream parties, but if they want to be chameleons and imitate, take over the agenda of the far right, there is nothing to number on. On the another hand, together with civilian society, they should enter into dialog with the "moderate" voters of the far right and effort to explain to them the consequences of expanding support for it in terms of quality of life, democracy, etc. Paradoxically Viktor Orbán and what happens in Hungary is simply a large anti-example. erstwhile we look at what the economical situation is, what is the scale of corruption or crime, let alone the key issues of democracy, there is simply a grim image of the effects of the governments of the far right.
Something that can halt these trends is, among others, a strong mainstream left.
Why the left?
This is not about individual sympathy – I can do coming out that I mostly have centred political views. However, I believe that a strong mainstream left is needed for democracy. Its presence influences support for the far right, as can be seen, for example, in the Nordic countries – the far right grew stronger, but at any point it began to slam its head into the ceiling, due to the fact that conventional social democracy is holding tight.
However, it is not about sticking to 1 political option. There needs to be a plan, a strategy, a social survey and, on the basis of these, take action to recapture extremist groups. Without this, we are doomed to increase support for the far right, with certain consequences for our political systems.
This all sounds reasonable, but the question is: why do mainstream parties not then? Do they have another strategies?
The problem is that the stronger the utmost right is, the greater the temptation to take over its rhetoric by centre-right parties and even centre-right parties, as can be seen in Poland, the Netherlands or France. This means moving the scene to the right, entering the mainstream of “moderate” xenophobia, nationalism.
At the same time, radicals request to radicalise in order to stay radicals, and unfortunately these processes affect the general perception by voters of human rights, the regulation of law and democratic values.
Another problematic issue is the thought of adapting to radicals by various experts. Prior to the 15 October elections, many studies were conducted on this subject and for example Sławomir Sierakowski with Przemysław Sadura They suggested soft populism is an appropriate method of combating hard populism.
Isn't it?
In the short term, this may be the case, but long-term efficacy contradicts the conclusions of political studies. There is simply a very good survey of Werner Krause, Denis Cohen and Tarik Abou Chadi, who analyzed 70 elections in 13 countries.
These studies leave no uncertainty that the thought of pushing the far right into the corner by taking part of her rhetoric almost never works in the long run. This can be done according to the Austrian model, working with it. The gentlemen from the Chadec OVP claimed respective years ago that they would play inexperienced FPOs and take its popularity. It didn't work out. Today, the FPO has 35 percent support and the OVP has about 20 percent support. Now the same, though on a smaller scale, happening in the Netherlands, and in fresh years we have besides seen the fall of Forza Italia, which was erstwhile the strongest organization in Italy – now plays a insignificant function in the coalition with Meloni and Salvini.
The second model is Poland-France, which is what Macron does, and in our case the Civic Coalition – we argue the utmost right and “in contrast” to it we take over any of its views in a relaxed version. The 3rd model assumes deeper evolution in this direction. It happened to Fidesz Orbán, it's happening with Babišem in Czech Republic. His ANO group inactive in the erstwhile European Parliament word was with the Liberals and now joined Orbán.
Annual reports Variety of Democracy about the state of democracy point to the existence of a pendulum – we have leaders with authoritarian tendencies in power, so a broad coalition of various democratic forces is formed to push them away, which succeeds. The question is, how's this coalition doing after that? According to these studies, in the vast majority of cases, the shuttle fails and returns to the another side, but not to the same place. Authoritarian leaders will be more authoritarian erstwhile they return to power.
* Oh, my God *
Adam Andrzej Balcer – Polish political scientist, cultural anthropologist and publicist specialising in Euro-Asian themes.
