In the cemetery of political hope we will find quite a few gravestones with the inscription “Here lies the 1 who believed in the landmark minute of the campaign.” erstwhile we remember only the last decade in Polish politics, it will be very fast to find that practically no large affair has always changed power, but only the full and long-term string of scandals. Every organization and formation has seen this.. In 2015, the PO-PSL coalition gave power after 8 years of errors and distortions, and although the "tape scandal" actually poured out the bitterness spell, it itself did not origin failure.
Exactly the same thing happened in 2023, erstwhile the “United Right” did not lose due to the “visa scandal”, only a series of errors and fatigues of society after the “pandemic”, aid of Ukraine and “Polish order”. Earlier and later, we had a “ground affair” and “the affair with Sawicka”, both of which were expected to bring down the opponents of the Law and Justice Union, but as we know, they plunged the Law and Justice Party. Just 2 years ago, “lex Tusk” and the movie “Reset” were hailed with a secret weapon on Donald Tusk, who in addition lost a primitive debate on TVP and again the script repeated. Six years ago, the Civic Platform opened champagne on Paul Adamowicz's grave due to the fact that it cynically decided that it would be a fresh beginning and a certain win in the autumn parliamentary elections. The reality showed that the PiS achieved a evidence score and maintained power.
Against the backdrop of these affluences and breakthroughs that lasted only 3 days, “The studio affair” seems to be a 3rd - league setback, not a turning point. Of course, to see this takes quite a few distance and cold judgment, alternatively of panic on 1 side and a burning hope on the another side. Experienced politicians and analysts besides know perfectly well how organization electorates work, and they act fanatically. After 8 years of embarrassment, PO maintained support of 24%, and more than that completely compromised Tusk after another 8 years returned and took power. In turn, PiS won the election after 2 terms with almost the same consequence as in 2015, but lost power.
What would gotta happen to the party's polls or the presidential candidate being completely broken down as a consequence of 1 event? Unimaginable scandal, something of the heaviest caliber and absolutely indefensible, like pedophilia or human trafficking. All another insignificant calibre events will always and everywhere be converted by a faithful electorate to holiness or at worst to “everyone happens”. It will not be otherwise with the “residence affair”, and it has already happened, due to the fact that the PiS voters fiercely defend Karol Nawrocki and point besides much at his Samaritan sensitivity. This means that Karol Nawrocki's quotations in I circular will not change to a jota, and they will surely not break down due to this incident.
Each staff of rival parties should master this basic knowledge, but Sławomir Mentzen's staff and he himself did not argue the political elementary. Mentzen decided to throw himself at Nawrocki in a worse kind than the fanatic supporters of Rafał Trzaskowski and media favorable to him. Why would he do that? The first reason is political immaturity, the second is the belief that this will bring the PiS electorate to its side or, even more ridiculously, force Nawrocki to resign. Simple math is adequate to cut these fantasymagories. From the 20% pumped consequence Sławomir Mentzen dropped to 15% and in the full past of Polish politics no 1 always with this result, 2 weeks before the election, more than 25% did not reach, and Karol Nawrocki has in his pocket.
The consequence of this mindless operation of Sławomir Mentzen will be that not only will he enter II, but he must face further losses, due to the fact that this movement has driven even those who more or little favored Mentzen. The calculation of voters and observers is simple if you are desperately attacking Karol Nawrocki, although you have no chance of entering the 2nd round, you support the worst possible candidacy, or Rafał Trzaskowski. In sentimental politics, the mistakes of both opponents and silent allies are lacking and always used, but 1 must be able to do so. Sławomir Mentzen, unfortunately, one more time showed that he was inactive unfit for serious politics, due to the fact that only a frivolous politician could presume that one, in addition to the bustling scandal, would change the political course of events on specified a scale that would affect the result of the 1st circular election.
We don't believe in anyone, we don't believe in anything! We look at facts and draw conclusions!
