Should Donald Tusk stay Prime Minister? The fresh IBRIS poll surprises

In fresh weeks, the media and society have increasingly asked: should Donald Tusk proceed to service as Prime Minister? The answer to this question was attempted to find the latest survey conducted by the IBRIS studio on behalf of Polsat News, whose results were collected on 12–14 June. The survey was done by telephone (CATI) among 1,000 adult citizens of Poland.

Most Poles v. further office of Tusk

Data show that 30.7% of respondents "decisively do not want"To make Tusk Prime Minister. Next 15.3% corresponds to ‘presumably not’, which gives full 46% of those surveyed who want him gone. In turn only 40.5% of respondents support the continuation of his word of office – of which 20.1% corresponds to ‘yes’ and 20.4% say yes’.

In addition, 13.5% have no opinion, which may propose that this subject is inactive causing considerable controversy and uncertainty in public opinion.

Party support: civilian Coalition inactive leader, but PiS chases

The survey besides brings interesting data to the additional question of support for individual political groups. Civil Coalition remains the leader with 28.8% of supportHowever, the difference with Law and Justice (27.9%) is marginal – which can signal dynamic changes in election preferences.

She's in 3rd place. Confederation with 14.7%and behind the podium were:

• Third Road (6.9%) – below the electoral threshold for the coalition (8%), which would mean its exclusion from the Sejm,
• Confederation of the Polish Crown (6%) – which exceeds the electoral threshold as a single party,
• New Left (5.6%) – besides above the 5% threshold,
• Total (3.1%) - outside parliament.

These results show that although the Civic Coalition inactive leads, support for Law and Justice is growingAnd election scenarios can be much more tense than they seem.

What do the polls say? Does the Tusk government have a chance to re-election?

According to political analyses and the case law of common courts, e.g. Electoral Division of the territory Court in Warsaw, an crucial origin affecting voters' decisions are not only the achievements of the government but besides perception of the credibility and stableness of the leader.

In this context decline in acceptance for Donald Tusk may have a crucial impact on the electoral result of the civilian Coalition. This is peculiarly the case erstwhile the PiS counter-candidate will have a stronger image or greater voter mobilization.

Why do Poles not want Tusk to become Prime Minister?

The main arguments of critics can be addressed in respective key areas:

• Failure to fulfill run promises, specified as pensions increases or liquidation of the alleged ‘Vilian Friday’,
• Marking of the activities of the Ministry of abroad Affairs and peculiar Services, which, according to any opposition environments, act “as in communist times”,
• Increased polarisation of societywhere any of the recipients see Tusk as a policy that divides alternatively than unifies,
• Media force and scandalous government action, which affects the general perception of the Prime Minister's work.

Can Tusk reverse the trend?

The civilian Coalition will be crucial successful electoral campaignwhich will not only defend the government's actions, but will besides show new, real goals for society. It will besides be crucial The face of the leader – Tusk must regain trust, especially those groups of voters who are insecure present or reject it.

It's worth remembering that polls are just a momentary image of things. As the case law of the Constitutional Court and the general courts shows, e.g. in cases relating to the conduct of the local elections in 2024, real support can change importantly during the pre-campan and run period.

Summary

The current IBRIS poll provides a clear signal: Most Poles do not want Donald Tusk to proceed as Prime Minister. Even though KO is inactive leading the ranking, PiS catching up with fast tempsAnd the distribution of power in the next parliament may look completely different than today.

But politics is not only numbers, but besides emotions, narratives and belief in a better tomorrow. And it is up to Tusk and his squad to make a convincing imagination of the country that may depend on the future of the full Civic Coalition.