Katarzyna Przyborska: According to the last poll of Studio 24 the Left would not enter the Sejm at all, as would the 3rd Way. Contrary to the Left, a lower contribution to the NFZ was voted out, and the Church Fund is intact – it was no accident that the PSL got in and it happened just like the Church’s representatives announced Right after the election, which means nothing's changed. The left is burning. After the presidential election, will she have any further influence?
Przemysław Sadura: It doesn't look good to the bare eye. The consequence of the Left in the last election was not high, and from today's position it seems that these were times of glory. The left is losing voters, and even more electoral, due to the fact that let us remind you that even in October elections at least those youngest women, from the group to the age of 30, They voted for the Left 3 times more willingly than the remainder of society. You could say that Left is simply a woman, a girl. It's gone.
What went wrong? No legalization of abortion, or at least decriminalization of aid to remove pregnancy?
I'm sure. It is the Left that pays for the Citizen Coalition's moves. And for the fear of Prime Minister Tusk that unlicensed PSLs will fall into the hands of the PiS, and his electorate may go towards populists. It was not KO that blocked the most crucial demands of the Left, it was PSL and Poland 2050.
These electorals go to another parties or are they discouraged and possibly they won't vote at all?
They declare that politics is no longer curious and will not vote. For this, young people are activated, who irritate polarization and this completely misunderstood Jurassic Park, the clash of dinosaurs of the 3rd Republic of Poland – Jarosław Kaczyński and Donald Tusk. They are waiting for the Confederate, with a fresh image that feels good on social media and on TikTok, where young people learn about the world. The Confederacy without Grzegorz Braun and Janusz Korwin-Mikke seems little extremist and little controversial.
Unless Mentzen talks in a good atmosphere at Stanowski's and tells him studies should only be for the richest, a abortion is “an unpleasantness”. After this conversation, Confederate support fell by 3 points.
He's inactive the 3rd force, and the crowds came to the rally in Poznań. Against the background of Braun Mentzen, it does seem like a average policy, but the divided was not due to differences in views, just due to the fact that Braun decided to go against Mentzen. The views of Mentzen and the Confederacy are comparable to those of AfD politicians with the image of neo-fascists, but in Germany they are isolated and, at least for now, incapable to influence politics. In the face of AfD, eternal rivals, CDU and CSU, hold ranks in a sense of work for Germany, for legal order and democracy.
Meanwhile, in Poland liberal politicians already talk Confederate. The civilian Coalition has already been close in terms of their views on the economy, and now, after the anti-asylic bill has passed, it is even closer. KO besides voted to reduce the wellness contribution with the support of the Confederation, which abstained, but, as 1 of the titles described, thus "saved the government's project". Is it possible KO-Confederation coalition?
The Confederacy grows and can enter the coalition with the PiS, but it can besides enter the coalition with the KO. PiS is not a CDU, KO is not an SPD, we do not have the chance to get along with the Civic Coalition and the PiS above the heads of the Confederacy. It's not gonna happen, anything else can happen.
Would that be okay with the KO?
These are not the times erstwhile we had any idealism of the Gdańsk Liberals, from which Tusk and any of the oldest members or founders of the KO, who cannot look at the Confederate without disgust. hatred for the Law and Justice is ancient and opens the way to negociate with the Confederacy, although it is not a dreamy ally for them.
If the presidential elections do not settle in favour of Trzaskowski, and even if Trzaskowski wins, but his triumph will not be utilized to rebuild, strengthen, regain vigor and trust, then the Confederate – even as a weaker partner of the Law and Justice organization – will negociate a good position. It may besides always not enter any coalition, allowing any organization to form a number cabinet in order to bring a deal into specified a political crisis on which they can again gain until their strength increases. This is an highly convenient situation for populists, and it's for populists like we've never known before.
Will Mentzen's electorate go to the election, or will he forget and ride a scooter alternatively or drink a beer at the grill?
It is simply a bit of a desire for liberal-left commentators, especially those left-wing ones.
If there is no chance that young voters will be managed by Zandberg or Biejat, then there is inactive a desperate hope that the Confederacy will stumble on its own legs?
The Confederacy has done a large job. This force, which has been patiently built by generations of right-wing politicians, shuffles, and craziness, is yet ready to sail into the large waters. And I don't think this is going to fall apart all of a sudden, due to the fact that a young electorate decides to ride a scooter.
Let's not fool ourselves. They're not just young for a long time. Clearly, the Confederates have managed to mobilize various age and election groups. These are besides those who have liberal views, and Darwinists who simply don't want to pay taxes, and those tired of being divided into PO-PiS. They're not people who read philosophers. The cognition of the planet is derived from TikTok, and the simplicity of Mentzen's messages seduces them. They are not misogynists, they support LGBT rights, until late they could even care about the climate, but caring about the climate is no longer fashionable. There are paths of promotion for women in the Confederate. This organization has matured to turn into postmodern populism, where you can be both at the same time and behind the EU and against.
Left and Poland 2050 are already besides weak to form cordon together with KO, they lost their strength in fighting each other. Is their weakening and allowing KO to hegemony the intended effect of Prime Minister's actions?
Indeed, there is simply a devouring of appetizers, but I don't think this is the consequence of Donald Tusk's calculated plan. At most, Tusk turned out not to be specified an omnipotent demiurge as many thought. In general, we have specified a tendency to see genius in major politicians. Kaczyński was to be a superb strategist, and the effort of his genius is Nawrocki as a candidate. So is Tusk. He made it back from Brussels, but was it due to the fact that he was so brilliant?
KO was the chief party. erstwhile Tusk ran out and PiS won the election, her support fell to a twelve percent. Simon Holovnia collected 20 pairs.
Yeah, Donald Tusk left the Civic Coalition in the hands of people who couldn't handle it on their own. But he returned, saved his party, and the dynamics started, in which KO grew again with the weaknesses of its coalitionists, but did not gotta eat them specifically.
Why did the Left become the younger sister of the Civic Coalition for years? Why is he seeking the same well-earned and privileged electorate, bidding for liberalism on world-view issues, having the same demands and only a bit more extremist language speaks of abortion or LGBT rights? As a result, the Left does not have this traditionally left-wing electorate or traditionally left-wing demands concerning the welfare state, social solidarity. Since the Left is fighting for PO votes, it's hard to be amazed that this fight is losing due to the fact that it's little causative.
It's interesting what you just said about believing in omnipotence, into a political genius. The behaviour of the leaders of the smaller coalitions, specified as Vladimir Czarzasty, seems to confirm this. He doesn't seem to feel responsible. The black man defends his people and his positions, but there's no force for the future, no agenda development, no voter search. There's no dynamics.
Among the politicians of the leftist formation there were no people with vision, courage, a look beyond what is. They're sitting in a niche so they can't specify it more clearly, due to the fact that it's different to imagine the place where the Left is stuck deep. And the left is there, my lord. He struggles for a smaller, bleeding electorate, in a fraticidal fight against the organization Together. The left-wing politicians we hoped for clearly deficiency courage and momentum do not impose their own scenarios. Magdalena Biejat, alternatively of playing hard with her being the only candidate, the only female among the candidates, does not introduce a woman's agenda into politics, she only remembers this on 8 March. It's truly sad.
If there is, as you say, we'll gotta wait for critical mass of migrantsOn which the left will be able to build again.
It's a political fiction. But on the another hand, we look at a shrinking group of seemingly inept politicians who effort to do something but fail. And the more they effort to revive this left, the more it shrinks and divides.
Do you think they'll die and let something fresh arise in their place?
I hatred to say it, but they act like the Olsen Gang. There was this Danish comedy show about thieves and losers, which a generation of 40-year-olds most likely inactive remembers. They planned large jumps that always ended in a fun disaster for everyone, but not for them. For a long time the Confederate has been like this, now the Left has taken over the baton. And we're standing, cheering, waiting for any strategical thought to come up that brings back the action.
Ideas are – how to take care of the female electorate, young, how to return to postulates that were erstwhile left-wing. How to manage the fact that Poles increasingly remind themselves of collectiveism, solidarity, responsibility, that there is statism in fashion, large projects like CPK, that we are waiting for atomic power plants.
That's precisely what he's talking about together.
It's not just what you say, it's besides erstwhile you say it and from what position. Adrian Zandberg, who most likely tried to build leftist populism, told Poles from the beginning that the first thing to do is to rise taxes. And this fundamentally closed the chance to build this populism. She carried him with sincerity and set him up so that since then he has not been able to effectively mobilize the electorate.
I don't know how to get you to look for any hope.
The left must realize that she is fighting for her life. And we'll see if this is an organism that inactive has any endurance instinct. Bye. They're playing the best game on Titanic. They may have political purgatory again, and in 2027 no leftist community will enter parliament.
Maybe the KO's coalition with the Confederacy will make area for fresh forces on the left. At a time erstwhile there were no PO and PiS, and there were only SLD, PSL and AWS, the Left celebrated triumphs. It was marginalized at a time erstwhile Polish society was divided in another way. And in those 20 years of this fresh division, the Left was incapable to work out and made worse decisions. Now on the horizon you can see the end of the division into PiS and PO and another hand.
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Przemysław Sadura – habilitated doctor, prof. of the University of Warsaw. Lectures at the Faculty of Sociology of the University of Warsaw. Founder of the Field of dialog Foundation. It examines relations between the state and society in the fields of functioning of different public policies. Author of books, among others State, school, class and co-author (with Sławomir Sierakowski) of investigation Political cynicism of Poles and End of hegemony 500 plus and books Population of populists.
