Katarzyna Przyborska: There were no flows between PiS and PO in the parliamentary elections. They were on the side of democratic parties. And PiS gave the 3rd Road about 3 percent. Why, then, did Tusk set up “popular gloves”? Neither anti-immigrant rhetoric, nor 800 plus, nor "grandmother" made PiS lose spectacularly. Still, just before the local elections, it has 30% of support, and the PO just percent more. So what's the profit from populism?
Przemysław Sadura: Tusk did not play for flow of electorate from the PiS to the PO, due to the fact that on specified polarized political scene it is simply impossible. Polarization forces the game to mobilize its own electorate and demobilize the opponent's electorate. And it worked. PiS lost 12 percent of voters from 2019. He gained any fresh ones, which yet translated into 400,000 votes little than erstwhile elections.
Your thesis, recorded in post-election analysis, is that populism did not end with the elections.
Populism is contagious. As 1 populist politician appears in the system, there will be another in a minute due to the fact that the standard of public debate is decreasing. It's hard to break the moral-irrational arguments with rational arguments. Populism spoils the political class, but besides spoils society, spoils the electorates of all parties, not only the most populist. 8 years of the regulation of the Law and populist campaigns have caused the democratic electorate to besides be partially populist. So on the 1 hand, the Democrats had to mobilize their own, on the another hand, to outbid the PiS in election gifts for groups that he did not satisfy. So there are increases for teachers and in the budget, and at the same time no fourteen are taken, boundaries are sealed.
What was expected to calm us – the revolution will not. In a moment, local elections, populism inactive works. So we can besides see the defence of Polish farmers in these categories. Although Ukrainian goods could inactive be made on the transit, even though the blockade of the border spoils relations between countries and strikes the economy of Ukraine, which is at war – Tusk chooses an attitude of knowing and compassion towards farmers. Another could lower support for KO in the local elections?
Three quarters of Poles support agricultural protests. It is simply a small bit due to the fact that they are officially directed against the Green Deal, which nobody full understands, and which was so badly communicated that it became a symbol of all evil. Of course, in specified a situation, farmers will sooner get sympathy than EU technocrats who do not know what they are up to. Tusk is sympathetic to this electorate, with the hope that it is not anti-EU, but alternatively calculating, cynical, and looking at everything in terms of how much it can be pulled for itself.
It thus shows that he is willing to negociate hard and fight for national interest even at the expense of the common good. That's what the government and contacts are for in Brussels. He hopes that in the Union they will realize the situation: he has just defeated populists, must establish power.
How do we realize raising VAT on food? Is that a good play before the election?
There is no VAT increase for food. We just ran out of cuts and didn't decide to propose another one. This is different. Indeed, inflation is now record-breakingly low for fresh years, and the budget must have any revenue. We're out of inflation tax, so we gotta go back to the average way of propelling the budget, due to the fact that from something you gotta finance these increases for teachers and for the budget sphere with another expenses being kept.
Even populist politics meet physical boundaries at any point. This is the ninth year of this policy. How much can the state budget withstand?
You gotta have money to fulfill your promises – I understand. However, VAT on food strikes the least affluent, while there is opposition by expanding wellness contributions the most affluent. And it's been communicated poorly. It's my first time seeing an explanation that it's not a raise, it's not a cut. The beauty manufacture received reduced VAT from 24 to 8 percent. And these are not only hairdressers from a tiny village, which have 2 chairs, but besides luxury salons where customers pay a fortune.
Yeah, that's why you gotta have press, PR, not hope that politicians and journalists will spontaneously find the best explanations for the government's actions. It was known that the PiS would immediately start screaming about the raise, it was essential to prepare well, justify and show that the operation of a certain shield instrument simply ended due to the fact that conditions had changed.
The same is actual of this superpopular program of 100 specifics per 100 days. These are the promises written on your knee from Saxon to Lasa. However, those that can truly be fundamental are not realized, but they are bloody costly, like doubling the tax-free amount. We are already proceeding that, in fact, it is not known whether this will be implemented next year.
Instead of abortion is in vitro, with fixing the school for now only heavy criticized liquidation of housework. It's cheap. alternatively of a solid migration policy – inactive exports and further deaths at the border that were not to be. Plastics for complex problems.
As individual erstwhile said, populism is simple and democracy is complex. Populism can be utilized to fight for power, and from enlightened populism I would anticipate it to put on this costume to win elections, but later it does not lead public policies in a populist way.
However, we are in a circumstantial situation. Only a 100 days have passed, and we already have local elections, and next period we have another run – for European elections and next year – for presidential elections. It's forcing action to the public.
Without winning the presidential election, it cannot be said that even the first 1 of Tusk's promises, or victory, was fulfilled. It will only be possible to number on something meaningful to happen in public policies after the change of the President, erstwhile 2.5 years stay until the next parliamentary elections.
What's the populist optics look like in the investigation commissions, the prosecution's actions, the search at Ziebra's house? I feel that dynamics is variable. At first, the emotions were fueled by Simon Holownia, a teacher of naughty students, who would turn from the cathedral, sometimes wittyly. Then the enthusiasm faded a little, due to the fact that the commissions go on for a long time and barely anyone has time to follow them. Emotions grew again erstwhile searches began as part of the Justice Fund investigation.
Plus, you inactive gotta make it up. How was the Law and Justice able to win these elections, having the majority of the public against each other? In individual cases people were usually against power. They were for the regulation of law, for the European Union, for not touching this abortion. And then erstwhile the election came, the PiS would win and everyone would be as amazed as possible. This was due to the fact that the PiS had this electorate divided equally: a faction of skeptical voters who say that parties mostly suck, but this 1 is better than another cynics, reasoning categories of their own interest, and fanatics who identified themselves with the party, were willing to get killed for it. You gotta have bread and games. Bread for cynics, games for fanatics.
And democratic forces had very small cynical electorate, small fanatical. Now they gotta play to rebuild both. All these committees of inquiry, interventions, are to be games played for fanatics of the Democratic Coalition or civilian Coalition.
Do you think they do their job?
They meet in the sense that fanatics are satisfied, they mobilize them, give them nourishment, and at the same time cover the real problem: if the demands for the settlement of the Law and Justice governments can be met at all, we will know the answer in any years erstwhile court proceedings can be closed. Kamiński and Wąsik could have been put in jail for a while, but this did not consequence from how fast, but from how slow the justice strategy was. After all, the case active a crime committed during erstwhile PiS governments, or eighteen years ago.
We should have reminded everyone who Andrew Lepper was.
The fact that this is rather smoothly played, allows people to forget, not announcement it, and everyone seems to have any accounts going on that have not been there so far. There's no settlements yet, there's a show.
Do you think people will be guided by what the government has managed to do for the first 100 days? The same rations that they followed in the parliamentary elections?
I anticipate that the same vectors that we have observed in the parliamentary elections will proceed to operate in the local elections, and which were further multiplied by this triumph of democratic forces. Thus, voters of the coalition forces stay mobilized, and the winner always attracts uncertain, disoriented ones.
The PiS, on the another hand, has not been able to cope with the consequence of defeat, the process of demobilizing voters is expanding and deepening. any of the demobilized in the fresh elections may already be reasoning about who this support might shift to. The right hand is conflicted, did not settle the guilty defeat, did not discuss its causes due to the fact that it could not, due to the fact that there was another run besides close, you had to get to work.
What about the abortion issue? Are voters aware of how local elections translate into even the climate of hospitals?
I hope that disillusionment of the deficiency of results in the area of women's rights and LGBT rights will not translate into discouragement and resignation from the elections. These issues are crucial motives behind the spectacular increase in attendance among young people, especially women, the youngest ones and the somewhat little young ones.
It was a promise that was not written in either 100 detailsNot in the coalition agreement. The 2 parties that made this promise, out of the 3 democratic ones, are inactive not enough.
Such a translation sounds unconvincing. The engagement of young people and young women, as a consequence of women's strikes, built the climate of these elections, the climate of the campaign. The issue of abortion has naturally become part of a fresh social agreement. Whoever doesn't realize this will lose this fresh democratic electorate. Young people won't give credit indefinitely.
A fewer weeks after the election, Ipsos made a poll as part of 1 of the projects I was implementing. The results showed that the interest in politics among young people was low, and among girls half as low as among boys. We asked about the Euro-election. The people who said they would definitely vote were 20 percent. Those who "preferably vote" with 30%. Far from over 70 percent attendance from parliamentary elections.
So he's decided on the fucker? specified an emotional explosion, which, however, has not yet evolved into permanent political attitudes?
Yeah. And you gotta sniff and blow on this mobilization. It was besides clear that she was very excited by the well-groomed promotion campaigns, which were a phenomenon of this parliamentary campaign. Now they are repeated – and to local elections, and to Euro-elections. But without dealing with these basic issues for young people and women, politicians will not be credible.
The younger generations clearly disagree from the older ones in what is crucial to them. These are women's rights, including abortion, LGBT rights. This is simply a substance of climate and intellectual health. This must be answered positively. Otherwise, these people will just be discouraged from politics. They will besides provoke the Left to break the coalition unity at any point. 'Cause she's the only 1 with an electorate who's gonna give it a bonus.
The unity of the coalition has so far broken not the Left, but the 3rd Way. She stopped hard laws liberalizing abortion and even rescue laws. The first 1 left the Coalition on 15 October before the local elections.
Only the 3rd Way does it so that it does not endanger the cohesion of the government. All they talk about is that they're doing their show, they're addressing it to their voters. And the thing is, who's the first 1 to announce he's leaving the coalition? The 3rd way can't do that due to the fact that she would be punished. The voters of the Civic Coalition do not imagine this either. However, the Left's election, the youngest ones, if they can't truly settle matters that are crucial to them, will give her a mandate to leave the coalition.
The hoarding and the 3rd Way make this split, only unofficially. Is that a sign that they're playing for a gradual takeover from the PiS right-wing voters?
The failure of part of the female and youth electorate is simply a cost that must be borne in order to gain more from the flow from the PiS electorate. After the election you will gotta compare posts, see if it actually works. This will be the first evaluation of this strategy.
The departure of women and young people from the 3rd Way has already recorded polls, but the influx of PiS voters has not yet seen.
That is what I wanted to say, that I have in front of the results of the last poll, in which the Platform by a hair – virtually 1% – precedes the Law and Justice, and at the same time it can be seen that since the elections the most lost the Law and Justice and the 3rd Way. The Law and Justice over 5%, the 3rd Way similarly. Left and Confederacy gained 1% each. Where are at least 8 percent of the voters?
I'm afraid somewhere in this luca between that polarization situation where the demobilized fall. But we will see, due to the fact that truly – it can only be counted after the election. Especially if we want to number flows, we request a higher resolution picture. The average poll has a alternatively low, the best basis for measuring flows are exit polle.
It should besides be noted that PiS voters suck more PSL than Poland 2050 and Szymon Hołownia. And the PSL was usually better at local elections than the polls said, due to the fact that it has extended structures and can play this game.
That was before the parliamentary elections. The 3rd Road seemed to balance on the electoral threshold.
Which triggered the effect of a "tactical vote", which somewhat artificially inflated Simon Holovnia and his presidential ambitions, which may have caused him to go a small besides far.
Now we don't gotta vote tactically. The thought of a common list – Coalition 15 October – He's out of his mind. And this is your second argument: that the triumph over the PiS was achieved despite the deficiency of a common list. Now Donald Tusk and Robert Biedron advertise themselves, saying that you can yet choose not little evil, but vote for those you truly want to support. Mobilizing or demobilizing?
It is partially a false conclusion that the strategy of going to elections has played separately – that is, that the scenarios of unifying the opposition are wrong, that that is why Hungary failed and Poland succeeded.
All polls showed that a better consequence would be if the Polish democratic opposition competed together, but it succeeded without it. We did, due to the fact that in the end they found a way to weaken interior competition without creating 1 list. It helped and calls to vote tactically, to support the weakest link in the chain. It's intertwining hatred policy with love policy. And now you can see that the honeymoon is over, there's no tactical vote anymore, there's a increasing reluctance between 3rd Way voters and another coalition organization voters. I think it's going this way. Now the only chance is to run forward, effort to find fresh political fuel.
So if there's any data showing that the 3rd Way strategy of trying to attract PiS voters at the expense of any young people and women is working, I anticipate we'll have an effort to repolarize. It means replacing the prevailing conflict in society between the PiS and the anti-PiS conflict between liberal-left forces and democratic conservatism.
This is not a bad script for democracy, due to the fact that it will weaken the authoritarian current, destroying democratic institutions. At the same time, it's not the best script for the Left.
The left is indeed the most lost in specified repolarisation. Her chance is to separate from KO. Then depolarization and the real end of populism would yet be accomplished.
How does the Left stand out? The Messengers of the Left are distinctive, expressive, but I have the impression that they are sent on missions in which they have no chance of winning. For example, a fresh visit to president Duda. Why? He announced that emergency contraception laws would not be signed, we knew that rational arguments were not what had so far influenced his decisions. So why did the MPs of the Left go to him? Show them that they can not only shout: "Fuck off" on the streets, but besides talk politely? but it looks like they have something to explain, like they're proving they're not that radical. And at the same time, it shows no efficacy.
I don't think they made it up. Management is liable for specified decisions. But their images endure from it. The Left makes image errors and the Member's visit to the president is 1 of them. We know that the Left is simply a woman, a girl – only a group of women 18–20 years old made a twenty-something percent result, or 3 times higher than support in national elections. But that is not enough, especially as the differences between KO and Left abortion projects are small.
There are also issues that are crucial to the Left, and at the same time more clearly distinguishing its programme from the KO programme, specified as housing policy. The problem is the deficiency of a brand.
Three relentless tenors? I've asked the policymakers of the Left many times. And they explained that you get power, you don't get it. However, it seems to me that political will is essential to trigger change.
If we leave everything without any top-down control, it'll take years, due to the fact that all guy in the left-wing structures will think of his business, not the party's business, and he'll fight for his place.
This truly blocks progressive democratic changes. Therefore, e.g. women's electoral rights in Switzerland were introduced so late – it had to be voted on in a referendum first. And only men were entitled.
Your 3rd thesis is: No Generation 15 OctoberThere's a generation of Women's Strike.
Yes – in the absence of flows between electorates about the result of the election, it was decided to affect young, previously unmobilised. It's just that they're mostly people who grew up politically in demonstrations after the TK's sentence.
There is simply a fundamental difference between the politicians of KO and the Left. Donald Tusk is simply a terrible sociologist, but a large politician. The concept of the "generation of October 15" is completely uneventful, has no empirical basis. All we know about these people is that they were mobilized mainly by the Women's Strike and the Professional Campaigns. Not any fundamental change in value caused by a million hearts march. Tusk created this concept just to make it look good. And he wins.
We have large sociologists on the Left, but terrible politicians. On the 1 hand, they realize perfectly what happened in the young generation – that this is simply a generation of Women's Strike, that these protests were the socialization of young people, especially women, into politics. But the Left speaks to these women with the mouth of 3 male leaders. This shows the poorness of the leftist coalition. This cannot be covered by the appointment of co-chairs in all parties or clubs.
And Magda Biejat's candidacy for president? The consequence of the Left in the parliamentary election was disappointing. Can there be any surprise now? Do left-wing politicians now have a chance to scope out to young people and mobilise them to go to elections and vote for them?
I don't believe that. The left seems to know, he's trying, but really, the bottom line is weak. In local government, they're not going to make a better consequence than on October 15. It takes quite a few staff to do that. That's why the PSL in the local election does the results. What the Left can do now is separate itself from the KO.
If the elections in Warsaw had worked out as Magda Biejat intended, i.e. she would have defeated Bocheński, and Trzaskowski would not have exceeded 50% and a second circular would have taken place, it would have been a truly large chance to point out all the differences between the Left and the Civic Coalition. Remind the left electorate why he is voting for the left, but besides appeal to others. This can only consequence in the Euro-Parliamentary elections later, winning the Left's ratings.
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Przemysław Sadura — habilitated doctor, prof. of the University of Warsaw. Lectures at the Faculty of Sociology of the University of Warsaw.
