Katarzyna Przyborska: Coalition October 15 – so the camp of democratic parties named Donald Tusk in his speech – came to power thanks to the generation of October 15. In addition to the permanent mention to the legitimacy of 11 million citizens and a citizen, is this to be a proposal for a fresh power agreement with the public?
Przemysław Sadura: That might be Donald Tusk's intention. However, for now, while the Coalition on October 15 is simply a social and political fact, it has not yet had a name, I have doubts that we are dealing with any homogenous entity that could be described as a generation of October 15. I realize that this would be about young people who have been politically active, took part in elections, supported a democratic coalition or democratic parties.
I realize it's a way out of the young generation. fresh beginning – mention to the experiences of voters who voted for the first time this year. The question is whether it works or whether young people share this vision.
In fresh weeks, I have conducted investigation with electorates of various parties and I have had quite a few focus with the youngest voters and electorals. Their attitudes are very different. The electorate of the youngest women is evidently more left-wing. Many of these girls voted for the Left, and even if they didn't, they're close. They distance themselves from Tusk. For them, he and Morawiecki are a generation of older men, any of the grandparents who are different there, but these differences are not peculiarly important. For this group, the rights of women or LGBT people are crucial. This is not the generation of October 15, this is the generation of the Women's Strike.
It is.
All young participants of the focus, but besides quite a few participants, declared that for them the political awakening was the protests after the judgement of the Court of Malta.
So for Tusk, what's more crucial now is what brought together not the most active electorate, but the mediate one, which many voices have gathered the 3rd Road, moderate, from tiny and medium-sized cities?
I think it's about managing the complex coalition and the voters behind it. There are quite a few people in this coalition. They're diverse. The electorates of each organization besides differ, and they are internally differentiated, depending on sex and age.
So this coalition isn't a part of cake? It needs to be strengthened by a commitment to citizens who will besides find any common identification?
Exactly. So while 1 can talk of a certain unity of the political coalition that was made and which Tusk called Coalition on October 15, the slogan “generation of October 15” is to have alternatively a performative function and only any existence emerge.
And I realize Tusk. Its task as the leader of the coalition is to preserve its consistency, and we are dealing with a situation in which the 3rd Road plays very offensively. In fact, she put voters and voters in the face of blackmail, which brilliantly reflects the slogan "or the 3rd Road, or the 3rd word of the Law and Justice." any of those that could be called the voters of the democratic camp, who supported the thought of creating a single list – those that were closer even to the Civic Platform or the Left – eventually, with their teeth closed, voted for the 3rd Way. In focusses with the large-town TD electorate, even half of the people declared that she voted strategically.
And the matrimony with the PSL...
Thanks to this, they attracted an electorate who had so far voted for the right, but stated that 8 years was enough, that PiS stopped caring for the interests of villages and farmers, the issue of grain from Ukraine, etc., and that it was time to fight for it differently, that is, by voting for the PSL. In the focus of people from the agrarian electorate of the 3rd Way said that they could not vote for the PSL if he were in a coalition with the "Red Left" or "Rose Tusk", but as with the Holovnia, that's okay. At the same time they hoped for a coalition of PSL or the 3rd Way with PiS. Finally, Simon Holovnia did very well in the TVP debate, and that mattered due to the fact that in these elections more people than usual made a decision at the last minute.
Thanks to them, the Holovnia is on a roll.
When he became the talker of the Sejm and began to conduct the proceedings in a large style, inspired by the way it is done in Anglo-Saxon countries, he further conquered the 3rd Way. It is on the offensive and will clearly be brake against action to implement Worldview demands and those concerning women and LGBT persons.
I get the impression it's energy from the run and the pre-campaign. The 3rd Way fought with everyone, and Left chose the function of a sensible Liberal partner: pro-state, predictable.
It inactive is. For now, the Left shows a defensive, reactive attitude. In my opinion, the consequence of the elections can already be seen as an evaluation of this strategy. She's going on, so she's most likely happy, but I think she's most likely not feeling well enough.
So Tusk would like to dissolve the Generation of Women's Strikes in this wider Generation on October 15. Whether it is to strengthen the coalition, or due to the fact that extremist voters are just harder for power. What are the risks? What's the danger?
The main threat is that, as we actually dissolve all specified subgroups or sub-generations in one, they may lose their clarity and their mobilization power. These young girls with clear leftist attitudes, if they see that the fresh government and Coalition on October 15 do not take seriously the demands to safeguard reproductive rights and improve LGBT people, they will retreat their support. They can besides deactivate themselves politically or control to more explicit groups.
Is this a chance for the Together Party?
Potentially, yes, but besides another leftist politicians who are heroes for this election group.
Catherine Kotula found herself in a government where, however, the conservative 3rd Road has a stronger position, and this 1 does not want to hear the voice of women, although they shouted loudly at protests. It won't be easy.
The Kotula will be a spokesperson for the Women's Strike Generation. It's a very crucial function. Of course, it may not be able to fight effectively for progressive demands, but then we will most likely see any cracks, any shifts besides within the Coalition on October 15.
However, voters – despite the mobilization we have observed, and the advanced ratings of parliamentary meetings – do not live so intensively. any left-wing voters have no thought that Together she did not enter the government.
Is he missing an chance together?
In my opinion, together, she made a strategical mistake. In addition to the red card, which is turning against the government, it may have had a yellow informing that could be utilized to force the fulfillment of the demands. The motion of moving from co-ordination to conditional support is political ammunition. Half the magazine blew up together. And that's before the action started. That's not wise.
Threatened the organization together wave to leave.
Some leave, others come. The organization can't just be held hostage by its constituents. Politicians and politicians are meant to form attitudes and can make risky decisions if they have recognition, have cognition that these are good decisions and yet can translate into an increase in support, implementation of demands. Let us anticipate courage from them to make decisions, not to be conservative, to be punctuated.
You talked about young girls with left-wing views, for which the differences between Tusk and Morawiecki are not that great. What about the elders?
In groups over the age of 30 and those who voted for the 3rd Road or Civic Coalition, demands on women's rights, worldview, anti-clerical postulates, appearing as motivations to participate in the elections, disappeared erstwhile the conversation came to expectations of the fresh government.
What do you mean?
Most Poles and Poles voting for democratic parties are so traumatized by the 8 years of the regulation of law and justice that they will accept that they will not be able to implement all the demands rapidly or in a 100 percent. The people with whom we were focusing themselves declared that they mattered that first there would be a return to the alleged abortion compromise – I hatred that term, but people inactive usage it. And we'll gotta wait for further changes. That erstwhile it comes to LGBT issues, partnerships do, but full equality between marriages in the next sequence, and adoptions should be forgotten for now, due to the fact that Poland is not ready for that. That there's no reason to break the unity due to the fact that she's the 1 keeping the PiS and the Confederacy out of power. Even the women we talk to are actually ready to let go and wait patiently.
So possibly this average left, concision, isn't wrong? If she doesn't bid higher, does she endanger to dissolve in the Coalition?
The left should be smart not to break up unity, to keep an eye on its agenda. Voters won't reward the organization together erstwhile they realize that she eliminated herself from the fight. It is worth taking an example from the 3rd Way and as she struggles for her own. callback what is crucial for the left-wing electorate, and grow its electoral base.
Politics is not just a sphere of moral or ethical action. It consists of calculated, calculated actions, calculated into a strategical game. The Citizens' Coalition, taking and accepting the demands previously made by the Left, concerning the liberalisation of the abortion bill, the improvement of the situation of LGBT people and a number of others, wanted to respond to a certain social emotion and take the Left electorate away, alternatively than meet these promises.
The leftist politicians warned voters about this.
Now the Left should be offensive and expressive within the coalition and thus reconstruct the support of the lost voters. Meanwhile, any thoughts are ethical, not political, and others are waiting for developments.
The election results showed that part of this electorate, which you and Sławek Sierakowski called cynical, left the Law and Justice. It is possible that local elections will lose even more support, precisely for cyclical reasons.
For the United Right now, it is crucial to fight for unity. He must regulation over Sovereign Poland, attract Confederates. This is most likely why this harsh anti-EU rhetoric is crucial especially before local elections, crucial for the control of resources. The most crucial decisions on the distribution of EU funds are taken by regional governments.
What about those little cynical ones who voted for the Law and Justice Party, and now they can have enough? How can you trust the president if he swears on the prime minister of the man Kaczyński and the full TVPiS say he's an agent?
This is embarrassing, but not the first specified behaviour of Kaczyński. We've seen him out of balance and acting weird. It was besides not the most scandalous behaviour in the parliament in fresh years. But possibly Kaczyński doesn't gotta worry about it, due to the fact that he's not playing for power anymore. Rather, there will be power over the Law and Justice, and specified conduct facilitates the task of another politicians of this formation. With him, they will look sustainable, responsible.
So, Andrew Duda has a chance to take over this schema?
Now, in fact, the only specified strong figure is the presidential center, the others are paralyzed. The Law and Justice Council must endure, but for 8 years it has built and consolidated the structures of right-wing civilian society, so that even on the last straight, it has cast institutions to increase its power in the function of opposition, thanks to financial, human resources, competence, accumulated in public organisations.
Exactly. W Population You have stated that in order for democracy to be permanent, liberalism in our hearts must be strong. And that can't be done without education and support for civic attitudes. The Law and Justice have dug into their well-fed organizations. What should a democratic organization do?
Education must be supported, but besides the full sphere of cultural activities. And those values that in another language we call worldview issues. It's a task again for the Left, she should be the 1 to ask for it. These are issues of action for civilian society as a whole. And in this part of institutionalized, in the form of NGOs, and uninstitutionalized, in the form of... various little formal, more spontaneous ways of cooperation.
Civil society got its minister, Agnieszka Buczyńska.
I very much hope that civilian society has a government, not just its minister. If there is only 1 minister, the chances of us always stopping being a populist society are poor. Long-term action is needed, which can truly defend against the return of right-wing populism to power.
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Przemysław Sadura – habilitated doctor, prof. of the University of Warsaw. Lectures at the Faculty of Sociology of the University of Warsaw. Author of books, among others State, school, class and co-author (with Sławomir Sierakowski) of investigation Political cynicism of Poles and End of hegemony 500 plus and books Population of populists.
