Russia was and is considered to be an energy superpower – the largest gas and oil maker and exporter. But in fresh years there has been a coup and a global energy hegemon has become America. How did this happen?
In the preceding article ("Two Bears besides tight" — Szczęsniak: 2 bears for tight | Think Poland) I have described the long conflict of America and Russia for the European gas and energy market. Russia has almost completely lost this market, and the US energy power has moved all the way to Russian borders, eliminating the influence of its competitor especially in Central Europe.
It was a crucial start, but the fight was about something much bigger – about the primacy in global markets, especially natural gas. Let us look at the results of the gas competition between the 2 energy giants. For here we have a fresh leader and fresh rules of play.
This competition has been going on for more than half a century. However, it gained strength along with the "shale revolution" in America, erstwhile fresh technologies and immense amounts of money invested allowed to scope for oil and gas from the previously inaccessible deposits. 20 years ago, the mining began to grow rapidly, and as early as 2009, the United States surpassed Russia, taking on the position of the world's largest producer. The 2008 financial crisis has surely contributed to this, which the oilers behind the ocean have barely noticed, and which Europe has pushed into an energy recession. So Russia lost its only outlet at the time.
American technologies and capital proved superior to Russia's vast and easy accessible geological resources. That is why the United States dominates undisputedly after 20 years – it is 25% of planet gas production, almost twice as much as Russia. During this period, the U.S. doubled production erstwhile Russia dramatically went back – precisely to the size of the mine 20 years ago. There was besides consumption behind the extraction. The US consumes twice as much gas present as Russia.
However, America not only met its own needs (and was already preparing for the function of the largest importer), but it was extracting so much that it set off with a "freedom gas" to conquer the global market. Here, too, she struck the planet export leader Russia, taking her place. Last year the US sent 203 billion m abroad3 gas, while Russia – only 138 billion. In 2019, it exported 260 billion m3.
As a lion in the acquisition of the export primate, he utilized the outbreak of the Ukrainian War, which enabled Washington to drag Europe into this "right" western energy side of the Iron Curtain. Then the Russian gas exported by pipelines fell dramatically, and America filled this empty space with its natural material.
Here is simply a remark – the amount of gas sent to the planet is alleged gross exports. If you subtract import from this, U.S. net exports (the difference between the sent and the imported quantities) will be only 124 billion m3. Russia is ahead of the U.S. by the fact that it importes minimal quantities and net exports are 132 billion m3.
But it'll be over soon, possibly even this year. The coming years announce a fast increase in American exports – LNG terminals are being built to power. This year, exports are expected to increase by almost 20%, as in the following year, and by 2030, by 2 times. This is due to the timing of the fresh export capacity. Meanwhile, Russia has just lost Ukrainian transit, negotiations with China are going on forever, and Washington has blocked its improvement of LNG exports from the Arctic. Thus, the US export advantage will increase in the close term. And besides their energy dominance, which is the key slogan of Donald Trump's government.
And this fresh energy hegemon has a hard hand. It has not only natural material, it has political strength to get fresh markets, offering much worse conditions than Russia. The fresh gas captain America will in depth forging the markets by getting another tool of force (in military and technological terms, for example) towards an increasingly "younger", weaker and more dependent ally.
Andrzej Szczęsniak
photo of wikipedia
Think Poland, No. 21-22 (25.05-1.06.2025)
