December 17, 2023 was to be a day of large triumph Aleksandara Vučicia and his Serbian Progressive organization (SNS), ruling in Serbia since 2012. The results of the early parliamentary, provincial and local elections in 65 out of 174 cities and municipalities were to confirm their full political dominance.
The results presented in the electoral evening by president Vučic confirmed the win of the SNS at all 3 levels and obtained a parliamentary majority. This time, however, it required large scale electoral machinations and falsification, with the authorities convinced of their impunity not even hiding and as confirmed by the reflection missions of the OSCE and the European Parliament.
However, it was besides much for society – increasingly dissatisfied with the over a decade of SNS rule. Students protested before the National Election Commission for respective days, opposition politicians decided to go on a hunger strike, social organizations organized demonstrations, demanding the annulment of the vote and structural changes that would enable equal and democratic elections to be held.
Undemocratic elections as a legitimacy strategy
Early elections and permanent election run are a permanent component of the power strategy created by Vučic in Serbia. This was the 3rd parliamentary election since 2020. They were organized erstwhile power was comfortable – it was essential to show dominance on the political phase or to postpone hard decisions about Kosovo or abroad policy, as the West pressed. The full large organization machine, and the SNS now has 800,000 members in the 6.5 million-strong population of the state, is geared towards securing further election victories.
Field activists control whether public sector employees who owe the organization to work (also liable for recruiting employees in the private sector) and privileges and lucrative government contracts vote along with full families as the powerholders expect. In addition, public resources are being utilized to supply generous gifts to the applicable social groups before the elections – additional funds for pensioners and pensioners, students, families with children, social assistance customers or food packages.
The dominance of the media rulers not only prevents the opposition from presenting its candidates and program to a wider group of voters, but is besides part of the fight against any individual and environment that is critical of power. Supporting the opposition in Serbia is burdened with advanced costs – not only economic, related to the hazard of failure of income, but besides the vulnerability to hateful campaigns in the media. Among another things, 1 of the candidates for the Belgrade City Council, whose intimate recordings were aired by 1 of the tv close to the government, found this.
A crucial financial advantage of the ruling is peculiarly visible during the run – it allows to organize large meetings, to which people are carried by buses or to mourn the full country with images of their candidates. Access to state resources is besides crucial on the day of the vote – it allows voters to be brought to election committees, including from neighbouring countries with a large Serbian number - Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro. Theoretically, to vote in elections, you request to be registered in Serbia, but the control of the institution allows you to study any number of people to the address indicated by the authorities.
A permanent run is besides a strategy to exhaust the opposition. It gives no time to reflect, make a thoughtful program and strategy or advance fresh leaders. Therefore, the most recognisable opposition policies are inactive associated with those accused of corruption by the 2008-2012 governments, which undermines the credibility of this formation. Especially as the subject of irregularities of erstwhile governments is willingly exploited by pro-government media.
Uncertain prosperity and safety
Vučić, who had specified an advantage, was certain that the elections would confirm the dominance of his organization and let for strengthening legitimacy in the eyes of the society and abroad partners, damaged by mass and multiweek protests after mass shootings in the first days of May 2023, erstwhile 19 teenagers and young adults were killed at the hands of peers.
The Belgrade shootings have shaken the safety of the Serbian people, who blame these events on government media, normalizing violence, promoting the cult of arms and physical strength and gangsters as a model for young people. This undermined the main elements of government propaganda, based on the promise of stability. The fulfilment of the second key promise, namely the sustainable improvement of the economical situation, has besides become increasingly questionable.
The European-wide economical crisis, which is simply a consequence of the pandemic and Russia's attack on Ukraine, has peculiarly affected the situation in Serbia, whose society is clearly poorer – in 2023 the highest increase in inflation on the continent was recorded. The prices of food, energy and housing have increased peculiarly strongly.
The economical difficulties felt by citizens have clearly contrasted with the government's communicative of the "golden era of Serbia's economical development". Although according to economical indicators the situation is inactive much better than in 2012, erstwhile the SNS took over – unemployment fell by half, salaries and pensions increased importantly – but social expectations burning propaganda were much higher, and crucial increases were blamed on oligarchs associated with the government.
The expanding number of local environmental protests in Serbia besides indicate the protest of the economical improvement model proposed by Vučic, based on major infrastructure projects (mainly roads) and the attraction of abroad investors with low labour costs, subsidies, deficiency of compliance with environmental standards and labour rights and very favourable expropriation regulations.
Issues of impunity investors destroying the environment, ignoring the needs and demands of local communities, selling out national assets at no cost (e.g. valuable copper deposits given to Chinese entities) or offering lucrative contracts in exchange for political support on the global phase (e.g. entities associated with the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán) translated into a increasing sense that economical policy benefits only a narrow elite and the negative consequences are borne by a poorer part of society.
No chance of winning the opposition?
What clearly distinguished these elections from erstwhile ones is, however, the unification of the pro-democratic opposition, which wanted to disprove social discontent and launched under a common list under the slogan referring to spring protests – "Serbia Against Violence". Hopes were besides linked to the mobilisation of people who had not so far gone to elections in the belief that the Vučicia strategy is sufficiently profoundly rooted in society that power cannot be changed by voting. Social organisations and intellectuals are active a promotional campaign.
The opposition managed to importantly increase its position in parliament, gaining almost 25% of votes and 65 seats in a 250-member assembly, but failed to take power in the Belgrade City Council. This failure has caused the top social discontent and protests. It was hoped that the opposition could win in the capital city, where there were the most opponents of the ruling.
However, the rulers refused to let a prestigious defeat in the capital. Especially since it is in their interest to keep the public in a state of apathy and feeling that there is no alternate for Vučic and his acolytes. For this reason, crucial measures were active to accomplish a affirmative result for the rulings. The vote peculiarly pointed out to young voters that under the current conditions – with specified a crucial leadership of the rulers – the opposition has no chance of winning and structural changes are needed to guarantee that elections are conducted in accordance with democratic standards. That's why they decided to go out on the street.
Western dilemmas
The protest actions of students and politicians have put the EU in a hard position, which formally demands candidate countries to meet democratic standards. The embassies of the Western states request clarification of irregularities during the vote, but they do not formally question the results of the election, considering that a possible exchange of the ruling elite in Serbia would entail a hazard of prolonged instability. The effect of specified changes is uncertain, as the democratic opposition is simply a conglomerate of various movements with ambitious leaders and divergent political programs, which does not have a clear consequence strategy to mass electoral counterfeiting.
Vučić himself uses post-election time to safe support abroad. On the 1 hand, it uses a close Russia communicative about the "colour revolution" supported by the West, which seeks to overthrow the democratically elected government and manifestly thank Moscow for its support. On the another hand, the concession to Kosovo shows that only current power can lead to normalisation of the relation between Belgrade and Pristina, and that is what the West cares most about today.
This maneuver is besides a trap for Western partners, due to the fact that their deficiency of firm consequence fits into Vučic's communicative of EU and US hypocrisy, which only verbally advance democratic values, and in fact agree to their breaking. president Vučić most likely hopes that concessions will guarantee the silence of the West, which will reassure the public that there are no allies in the fight for democracy in Serbia and discourage further crossing the street.
At the same time, however, the elections, alternatively of strengthening, undermined the legitimacy of Vučic's governments both internally and internationally. possibly under force from the EU, the president will be forced to repeat the Belgrade elections. The situation in the country remains unstable and the population is highly polarized. The request to rebuild the position will most likely prompt the president to strengthen the control of society and nationalist rhetoric, which is simply a threat to the stableness of the full region.
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Marta Szpała is an analyst of the Center for east Studies, the main specialist of the Central European Team.
