Presidential elections will besides be a match for Poland's imagination in the future," said the political scientist Dr. Paweł Kowalski. In his opinion, among possible scenarios are: the disappearance of the long-term duo PO-PiS and the creation of the Confederate and PiS coalition, but no longer under the leadership of Jarosław Kaczyński.
According to Dr. Paweł Kowalski of the Faculty of global Studies and Political Studies at the University of Lodz, about 50 days before the presidential election, it can be observed that their results will decide to change the political model or the imagination of Poland in the future.
Dr. Kowalski estimated that elections are always a minute of integration of different formations, during which tiny parties are "cannibalized" by large parties. This absorption of tiny players by “fat fish” will be seen both on the right and on the left and in the centre, where the PO already absorbs voters of the 3rd Way.
– The main danger that threatens the ruling coalition is the taking over of power by the combined forces of the Confederate and the PiS in subsequent elections. That means the PO will have the majority, will be the biggest club in the future parliament, but may not rule. Another question worth asking is: will this possibly drawing coalition of the Confederate and the PiS emergence under the aegis of the PiS? In my opinion, the current elections on the right besides can origin the centres of power to shift rapidly. And it may turn out that if Mentzen enters the second round, it will mark the beginning of the end of this concept of PiS, which is presented by president Jarosław Kaczyński. And a full fresh facility will be created on the right said the expert.
In his opinion, in the post-election landscape, many years of duality in the political marketplace with the participation of PO and PiS may disappear. – Instead of fighting between the PO and the Law and Justice, there can only be a fight between the Confederate and what will arise on the ruins of the Law and Justice. For erstwhile it comes to moods, we clearly see a shift in social sentiment to the right and a very weak position of the Left. – he added.
According to the political scientist, it is increasingly apparent that the position of the candidate of the Left Magdalena Biejat is no longer of any importance, so the task to rebuild this organization by exposing a female as a presidential candidate should be considered unsuccessful. – Besides, we can see that the Left has any individual problems all the time, another thing with ministers. However, it destroys the message and image of the party, there is no unity there. May I be a bad prophet, but in my opinion in the future election the Left as a organization may not enter the Sejm at all – he added.
– From the analysis of the polls, we see that Sławomir Mentzen of the Confederate is on a rising wave and surpasses the next ceilings. There were claims that he would scope 20% of his support and that is all he could afford. In my opinion, Mentzen's support will grow. The Law and Justice run is not dynamic, it lacks ideas. Apparently, the PiS candidate didn't hit it completely, and he's got a large problem right now. – believes the political scientist.
According to Dr. Kowalski Mentzen, who started his run already in August last year, and at the minute it is visible that he is collecting a bonus for thousands of handshakes and field meetings, he has become to a crucial degree a generation candidate of 30, 40-year-olds. In addition, support for the Confederate candidate conquers the anti-systemic image of this party.
– It can be seen that the erstwhile PiS voters are beginning to realize that they yet have an alternate to voting on the right. due to the fact that so far there was only the Law and Justice, and now the Confederacy is appearing, which has support not just a fewer but a fewer percent and the slogans it preaches are very well resonated in certain social groups. Over the years, we have been accustomed to a redistributive model of politics, which is to take distant those who have money and give to those who have few. said the expert.
The Politologist pointed out that there are many tiny entrepreneurs and young people in Mentzen's support group who work hard and are not curious in helping others; they are those who first want to aid themselves, so they are addressed by a message promising to reduce taxes, contributions to various funds and social objectives.
– Mentzen emphasizes very well in his run precisely those elements which so far the majority of society and this dominant duo, i.e. PO and PiS, considered standard – like taxes, redistribution, development, security. And the Confederate candidate says, wait a minute, we want voters to start reasoning about themselves, not others. And this is something completely fresh in Polish politics – says Dr. Kowalski.
The political scientist referred to studies that show that if Sławomir Mentzen did not enter the second round, about 10% of his voters would transfer the votes to Rafał Trzaski. – We besides know that in the second round, Rafał Trzaskowski may have a major problem with those fewer percentages of support that he may deficiency up to the required 50 percent. So it would be better for the PO candidate to face Karol Nawrocki in the second election round – he said.
Source: PAP
RoM
