The government announced crucial changes in taxes on alcohol – since 2026 the excise work on beer will increase by 15 % and by another 10 % from 2027. On paper, it's a way to make extra budget revenue. In practice, it is simply a hazard for the full brewing industry, whose profitability and stableness of employment are called into question. Most can lose Polish breweries and gain abroad competition, mainly German.
Association of Employers of the Beer manufacture – Polish Brewery does not beat around the bush. Their message is an emergency bell on state fiscal policy. The manufacture warns against the effects of the planned increase, indicating circumstantial figures and projections. To quote:
"The government is counting on greater budget revenue, but reality will be different. As a consequence of the increase in excise duty, the decline in beer sales can scope around 20 % (another 7 million hectolitres). This means that excise revenues will not increase and VAT will decrease by at least PLN 1 billion per year.”
These are hard numbers, which show that the fresh policy will not only not bring the expected revenue, but will even cost the budget. The increase in excise work will consequence in an avalanche of problems for the full sector – from producers, suppliers, to retailers. Consumers, reacting to rising prices, will begin to reduce purchases. Legal, home beer will cease to be available to many.
The union underlines:
"If the excise increase so drastically, from next year beer will become costly adequate that many Poles simply cannot afford it. And worse – more beer will be imported from Germany, for example, where excise work is 3 times lower. Polish breweries will be closed and thousands of people will lose their jobs.”
This is not scaring – it is simply a very real perspective. The profitability of companies will fall, due to the fact that sales will fall, while fiscal costs will increase. Companies will look for savings, reducing activity, closing production lines, reducing jobs. The manufacture indicates that specified a large increase will hit mostly smaller, local breweries that do not have a financial margin to last the impact.
As a result, we are threatened with a script in which Polish companies fall out of the marketplace and are replaced by abroad entities, benefiting from lower taxation burden in their home countries. The relation leaves no illusions:
"The share of imported beer will grow each year and legal home production will decrease. Currently, we bring about 1.5 million hectolitres of beer from Germany, the Czech Republic or the Netherlands. After taxation increases, this number can even double. alternatively of supporting Polish breweries, the government promotes abroad competition.”
This is simply a serious accusation against the government's fiscal strategy, which, although designed as a pro-state one, yet affects Polish companies and employees. The union argues that alternatively of stimulating the improvement of the sector, the government creates conditions for its disintegration and acquisition by abroad companies.
The manufacture besides points to wider impacts – both economical and social. occupation losses, investment cuts, capital outflows, innovation weaknesses. All this leads to 1 conclusion: excise policy should be more predictable and based on dialog with industry. Meanwhile, as highlighted:
"A 15% increase in excise work in 2026 is simply a blow against any assurance of the request for dialog with entrepreneurs. The brewing industry, which employs straight and indirectly more than 100,000 people, has been completely ignored in the legislative process. The proposals were not consulted. We have been faced with a fact made.”
Policy coherence is besides lacking. On the 1 hand, the government declares support for Polish manufacture and the fight against inflation, on the another hand – it decides on actions that straight lead to higher prices and weaker home companies. The manufacture asks if in 2 years the government will be prepared to take work for closed bets and rising unemployment.
The next problem is the grey area. erstwhile legal beer increases, any consumers turn towards cheaper, frequently illegal products. The manufacture warns:
"High beer prices in legal circulation are an incentive to get inexpensive alcohol from uncertain sources. We are already seeing an increase in consumption of strong alcohols, which have lower taxation burdens. This phenomenon not only threatens public health, but besides affects the gross of the budget."
Instead of stability, chaos. alternatively of improvement – marginalization. alternatively of bigger influences – the real threat of their decline. The manufacture calls for this process to be stopped before it's besides late:
"We call on the government to retreat from this decision and start a fair dialog with the brewers. We request a predictable fiscal policy, not drastic changes by surprise."
In summary: planned excise increases pose a serious threat to the profitability of Polish breweries, the stableness of employment and the competitiveness of the market. alternatively of more gross to the budget, the state may lose billions in VAT, weaken national manufacture and strengthen the position of abroad companies. If the government does not retreat from the current path, the effects can be long-term and painful for the full economy.
