Fired by the United States Europe awaits the arrival of a firefighter from across the ocean. It is, of course, to be Donald Trump, whose probable return to the White home after the upcoming elections is considered by many as a turning point for our region and continent.
After all, it was the erstwhile American president who announced respective times that the conflict in Ukraine would end in the event of his re-election within 24 hours. American historian from the Catholic University of Washington Prof. Michael Kimmage He late recalled in The Wall Street diary that the Republican candidate's promises could not necessarily be considered a good coin. In a celebrated interview late given to Tucker Carlson. it made sense and Vladimir Putin. After all, a reminder of the close past and the specifics of the American political strategy shows that Trump’s pre-election announcements and his staff are worth dealing with with the right reserve.
Firstly, it was his administration that decided in 2017 to supply offensive weapons to Ukraine, which was undoubtedly a preliminary step towards confronting Russia in the territory of the country. Kiev received, among others, hand-held anti-tank missiles directed by Javelin, which the administration did not want to provide. Barack Obama. Secondly, as Kimmage points out, Trump and his surroundings represent the clearly anti-European option, although anti-Europeanism has been a constant feature of American politics for a very long time. However, the Washington student points to a unique fascination of the erstwhile and possibly future president countries of the alleged fresh Europe, including Poland. It is the optics of the Polish or Baltic political class that can influence the attitude of the fresh administration towards the conflict in Ukraine. As we know, this optics is steeped in the suicidal drive to escalate the conflict with Russia. Thirdly, as the American media noted, the Republican talker of the home of Representatives, Mike Johnson, The decision to push through Parliament another military support package for Kiev was made after consulting Trump, whom he visited at his residence in Mar-a-Lago, Florida. He did so, despite the opposition of a number of Republican congressmen taking seriously the electoral slogans of the erstwhile billionaire president.
Kimmage predicts that Trump's unpredictability and impulsiveness can lead to an acceleration of the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine. This escalation is linked, let us add, to the increase in the hazard of bringing our country into war. Republican hawks will remind the constantly fresh – old president that a possible defeat in Ukraine would be another defeat of American militarism in a long series of them leading from Vietnam to Afghanistan. They will claim – not without right – that Moscow has decided irreparably already to cooperate closely and strategical partnership with Beijing. The thought of breaking this Eurasian alliance will be considered unrealistic. The confrontation with Russia will so be treated as an indirect clash with Beijing, which is simply a geopolitical precedence for American Republicans.
Finally, it is worth recalling that decision-making processes in American politics depend not only on public people. Described by Prof. Peter Dale Scott Deep state is not a conspiracy theory, but a well documented and scientifically justified fact. It is this network of informal influences, connections and interplays of the pursuits of powerful interest groups that will specify American politics, regardless of who will be the next tenant of the White House.
We like to hope. We would like the current war neurosis to end as shortly as possible – this is completely natural. However, the hope of diametric change in the United States as a consequence of the upcoming elections there is very weak. Sometimes it seems like an illusion. Yes, declared Trumpists want to end the madness of the war in east Europe. Yes, Republican voters do not want to spend another billion dollars on a corrupt government somewhere in far east Europe. However, it is not them, nor even Trump himself, who will decide the essential policies of Washington. The threat of war in Europe will pass as shortly as we say goodbye to the Americans of our continent. It's hard and sometimes unimaginable, but it's the only way to peace.
Mateusz Piskorski
photo of wikipedia
Think Poland, No. 21-22 (19-26.05.2024)
