The latest IBRiS survey conducted for “Rzeczpospolita” brings a real earthquake on the Polish political scene. Law and Justice, after months of being on the defensive, returns to leadership position, ahead of the civilian Coalition. Donald Tusk's organization noted a dramatic decline in support, which could be the most serious informing signal to the government since the beginning of the word of office. The survey, carried out on 27-28 June, shows clear shuffling in social sentiments and puts the stableness of the current strategy of forces at question. The Confederate remains on the podium, though besides with a noticeable decline. These results point to expanding dynamics and uncertainty that can specify policies in the coming months. For any groups, including the 3rd Way coalitions, the poll brings terrible news, putting them far under the electoral threshold.
PiS headed, civilian Coalition in defensive. We know the latest numbers
According to IBRiS, Law and Justice presently enjoys 28.9% support. This means an increase of 0.6 percent points compared to the erstwhile survey of the same laboratory. Although the growth is small, it is of large symbolic importance due to the fact that it allows Jarosław Kaczyński to regain first place in the ranking of Poles' trust. It is simply a signal that the hard electorate of PiS remains mobilized, and the strategy of being in opposition begins to bring tangible benefits.
A real alarm for the rulers, on the another hand, is the listing of the civilian Coalition. Prime Minister Donald Tusk's group can number on 26.5% of the vote, which represents a powerful drop of 5.8 percent points compared to last month. specified a large failure of support in specified a short time is simply a uncommon phenomenon and must origin deep anxiety in the KO staff. Analysts indicate that this could be the consequence of the end of the "honey month" of fresh power, but besides concrete decisions by the government that did not meet the approval of any voters. It is simply a clear signal that enthusiasm after the October elections expires, and voters begin to harshly measure the actions of the ruling coalition.
Confederacy unchangeable on the podium. What about the remainder of the political scene?
The 3rd place on the podium is invariably occupied by the Confederate, but it has no reason to be satisfied. The party, led by Sławomir Mentzen and Krzysztof Bosak, gained 16.8% of support, with a fall of 3.9 percent points. Nevertheless, maintaining specified a advanced score confirms its position as the 3rd political force in the country. The decline may propose that any voters who supported the Confederacy in the elections to the European Parliament now return to their first preferences or feed the group of undecided.
At the electoral threshold, the Left balances. According to the poll, this group can number on 5.6% of the votes, which means a slight decrease of 0.7 percent points. This consequence gives the Left a pass to the Sejm, but at the same time shows how fragile her position is. Any mistake could cost the failure of parliamentary representation, which would be a disaster for this formation. The conflict for endurance becomes a precedence for the Left in the face of the increasing polarization between the PiS and the KO.
Third Road and Together Outside the Sejm. Analysis of Causes and Effects
The biggest losers of the June poll are parties forming the 3rd Road and organization Together. The survey shows that if they had run separately, no of them would have been in parliament. Poland 2050 Szymon Holowna received only 3.8% of support, which is the consequence of a dramatically low group of the Marshal of the Sejm. Even worse is the situation of the Polish People's Party, which with the consequence of 3.2% was at the grey end of the stake. These data confirm the thesis that the power of the 3rd Way lies only in a common clash, and its members themselves do not have political existence.
It's not much better for the Together Party. Despite an increase of 1.7 percent points, 4.8% would not be adequate to exceed the 5% electoral threshold. This shows the dilemma facing the full left-wing side of the political scene – a separate start Together weakens both her and the full Left, pushing both formations to the edge of the electoral threshold. It is besides worth noting that 6.3% of respondents declared undecided. It is for this group of voters that the hardest fight is about to take place.
What does this poll mean in practice? Experts analyse the moods of Poles
The results of the IBRiS survey for “Rzeczpospolita” are more than just numbers. It's a social temper barometer that sends out a fewer key signals. First, for the civilian Coalition and the full government it is Last alarm bell. The fast decline in support suggests that voters' patience is ending, and expectations of fresh power were much higher. The government must now analyse which of its actions – whether in the economic, social or in the substance of the accounts of the predecessors – met with specified a negative reception.
Secondly, for Law and Justice, evidence of the effectiveness of the strategy chosen. Jarosław Kaczyński's party, despite interior problems, was able to consolidate its electorate and usage the government's faults. Return to the position of leader, even with a tiny advantage, gives her a powerful wind into the sails and strengthens morale in her ranks. It is besides a signal to the indecisive that the PiS is inactive the main opposition force and a real alternate to the current power.
Thirdly, the situation of smaller parties is becoming increasingly difficult. Fragmentation of the 3rd Way and the Fight for endurance on the Left they show that the Polish political scene can decision towards further polarization. Voters, in the face of a sharp dispute between the PiS and the KO, can increasingly opt for a "strategic vote", which takes place at the expense of smaller groups. The next fewer months will show whether the rulers can reverse the negative trend and the opposition will keep momentum. 1 thing is certain: political summertime in Poland is going to be highly hot.
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The PiS goes back to the leader's seat. A powerful fall in support of the Civic Coalition
