Recent data from the United Surveys survey for Virtual Poland uncover crucial changes on the Polish political scene, which may have key consequences for the current government. A survey carried out on 11-13 July shows that the Law and Justice one more time lead with support 29.2%., minimally ahead of the Civic Coalition, which declares 28.2%. Voices. These results call into question the stableness of the ruling coalition and propose that future parliamentary elections can bring dramatic shuffle. Moreover, the survey points to serious problems for smaller groups, many of which would be outside the Sejm, and a increasing group of undecided voters who will become a language in importance in upcoming campaigns.
PiS headed, Civic Coalition just behind. Who will form the government?
According to a fresh survey by United Surveys, the Law and Justice strengthened their position, recording an increase of 0.9 percent points compared to the erstwhile poll. 29.2% of the support received puts Jarosław Kaczyński's organization in the position of leader. It is followed by the civilian Coalition with a score of 28.2%, which means a crucial increase of 2.6 percent points. This tiny difference, which is only 1 percent point, emphasizes the extraordinary dynamics and unpredictability of Polish policy. Prognosis for the allocation of mandates indicates that the Law and Justice Office could number on 186 seats in the Sejm, while KO on 178. This means that no of these forces alone would be able to form a majority government, which would force the search for coalitions and negotiations that could be highly difficult.
The Confederacy fall and the Left stabilize. A fresh power hand?
The United Surveys poll besides reveals crucial changes in support for smaller groups. The biggest failure was recorded by the Confederation, whose support fell by as much as 2.5 percent points, reaching the consequence 12,5 percent Despite this decline, the Confederation remains the 3rd political force in the country, which would translate into 68 parliamentary seats. Left, with the consequence 6.8 percent. (an increase of 0.2 percent points), would keep its presence in the Sejm, introducing 28 Members. These results show that although the Confederacy is inactive a crucial player, its fresh decline may force the group to revise the strategy. The stableness of the Left, though at a lower level, provides it with a permanent seat in parliament, which is crucial for shaping future coalitions.
Smaller parties crisis. Who's out of the Sejm?
Fatal news concerns the groups that now co-create the ruling coalition, as well as another smaller parties. According to the study, Poland 2050 Szymon Holownia obtained only 2.8 percent. support (a decrease of 1.6 percent points), and Polish People's organization 3.5 percent. Both parties would be below the 5% electoral threshold, which would mean they would fall out of the Sejm. Similarly, the situation for the Together Party, which, with the consequence of 3%, would besides not exceed the threshold. Interestingly, the Confederation of the Polish Crown, Grzegorz Braun, who competed alone, obtained 4.2 percent, which would besides not let her to enter the parliament. specified a script would mean a drastic weakening of the current ruling coalition and the request to search fresh political agreements in the future.
Undecided – the key to future elections?
One of the most crucial trends revealed in the poll is the sharp increase in the percent of undecided people. Current 9.8 percent. the respondents do not know who they would vote for, which represents an increase of nearly 3 percent points compared to the erstwhile study. This large group of voters represents immense possible for each party, but at the same time is simply a challenge. Their votes may decide on the final form of the future parliament and the composition of the government. The political parties will gotta focus on effective access to these voters by offering them clear programs and solutions to convince them to participate in the election. It is the undecided that can become actual “kingmaker” in the upcoming elections, influencing whether Poland will decision towards continuation or extremist change.
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