General remark. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have a powerful force with about 700,000 bayonets presently under arms, but for another uniformed services. Ukrainian troops are mass-equipped with dense equipment originating from NATO countries, which displaces advisory equipment.
On the front are units armed with Lepard-2 tanks, Abrams, Stridsvagn 122 , Challanger-2, PT-91, Marder 1A3 and M2 Bradley combat infantry wagons. We see hundreds of armored transporters including Rosomak, Stryker, M113, VAB, SSF Pandur, etc. Ukrainian soldiers are modernly exposed and heavy armed by NATO countries. Ukrainian artillery has more than 2000 guns of more than 150 mm, including about 700 modern ones handed over by the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance. On the front are American Himars rocket launchers, German MARS, Italian, Norwegian, French and British MLRS-270 with GLMRS missiles. Ukrainian aviation attacks Russians with maneuvering rockets from France and large Britain (Storm Shadow and SCAPP-EG), inflicting severe losses on them. The Ukrainian OPL has American Patriot systems, NASAMS, MIM-23 Hawk, German IRIS-T SLM, French SAMP/T Mamba, etc. Kiev's troops have thousands of own drones and delivered by dozens of countries (gross of NATO members).
NATO, headed by the United States, provides massive amounts of ammunition and supplies and invaluable intelligence in close proximity to the real time, obtained, among others, by dozens of spy satellites, electronic reconnaissance aircraft and agentry. Despite this, the Russian army presently has an initiative on all sections of the front, many have effective tactical attacks and have at least 3 larger tackles.
So where is the origin of current Russian successes and a clear change in the situation on the front?
First, and most importantly, the Rate (Chief Command of the Russian Army), in contrast to its own actions at the beginning of the war in 2022 and to the command of the Ukrainian Army and its NATO advisers, guided by volunteerism, operates present according to the iron logic and principles of war art. Russian operations are well and sometimes (like the storm of the Awdeejevian District) brilliantly planned. Good command of the officers' staff, appropriate training of troops and appropriate equipment let them to be implemented efficiently.
Second, the Russian industrial device has switched to the war-management track and supplies large amounts of equipment, equipment and ammunition and fuel to fighting troops on the front.
Third, after a year of exercises, equipping and scraping subdivisions, a large number of well-trained and equipped regiments formed as a consequence of mobilisation in the fall of 2022 were introduced to fight.
Fourth, Russian aviation, equipped with large amounts of fresh precision pre-precision weapons including glide bombs with a satellite mark correction module, has again become an crucial combat factor.
Fifth, the Russian army received a mass of various types of modern unmanned flying ships and trained drone operators. Today, in this area, equipment does not give way to the Ukrainian army, and in many respects it surpasses it.
Six, The Russian army after a period of any kind of moral indetermination of targets, the peculiar Military Operation in Ukraine, after their correction in the fall of 2022 and the victorious rebuttal of the large spring-summer Ukrainian offensive in the summertime of 2023, has advanced morale and belief in victory.
In particular, the situation on the fronts is as follows:
Dnepartian Operations Direction
Russian Dniepr Group commanded by General Michał Tieplinski, fundamentally eliminated the bridgehead formed by Ukrainian infantry soldiers close Krynkami. The village as specified was wiped off the face of the earth. Hundreds of Ukrainian drones and a strong group of artillery on the right bank of Dniepr prevent Russian troops from clearing basements of respective houses where about 30-50 Ukrainian soldiers can defend themselves. This bridgehead is of small importance from the point of view of martial arts and is exclusively maintained for propaganda purposes imposed by the surroundings of president Zelenski.
The price to be paid to Ukrainian soldiers from the 35th and 38th Marine Brigades is disproportionately advanced and the past will severely measure the decision-makers from Kiev for the pointless death of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers who died in this irrational military perspective, conducted in violation of the martial arts of the operation.
As a consequence of the liquidation of Ukrainian capes, part of the forces from the Dzeprza region, She made a bet on Zaporozhye.
Zaporozhye – Romańczuk recovers areas lost in the summertime 2023
As you may recall, the Zaporozh area was in the summertime of 2023 an arena of 1 of the 2 main hits of the Ukrainian large offensive. The Ukrainian group "Tawria" and the Marun Group, hit 3 places with the top success on the alleged Oriechow-Tokmack operational direction. The break-in reached about 20 km. Russian General “East” Group Alexander Romańczuk In the course of fierce combats, General Tarnawski's armored wedge was stopped, with Leopard-2 tanks moving into the ground and M2A2 Bradley ODS combat vehicles.
At the moment, General Romańczuk, after receiving the additions and the protective units transferred by Stanka, began to destruct Ukrainian burglaries in the Russian defence line. On the another side, General Tarnawski is nervously monitoring the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, for reinforcements that are already on their way.
Why?
Well, the elite 9th Corps units operating on the Tokmacko-Oriech section equipped with equipment from NATO countries (Leopard-2 tanks, Marder and Bradley fighting infantry wagons), i.e. brigades mechanized including 47 and 116, were moved in November/December 2023 to an episode of the collapsing front of Avdieevka.
On the left wing under the Piatichats, the Russian 19th firearm Division was reinforced by the Air-Desant Army brigades (45th Independent Guarding peculiar Destiny Brigade and the recently formed 49th Armed Forces Brigade). So far, the Russians aren't attacking here, but they're doing intensive reconnaissance.
On the tokamcko-oriechów operating direction, Russian troops nearly recaptured the village of Rabotiono regaining a number of fortified positions. Ukrainian counterattacks at night on February 24/25 allowed to retrieve part of it, the gros of Rabotino is in the grey zone.
Conjunctive assault of regiments of the 42nd Squadron of Mechanized Rifles, 136th Guarded firearm Brigade of Mechanized Rifles and reserve regiments: 1154, 1430, 1251, 1441 and 1429 successively pushes Ukrainian soldiers from the 82nd Armoured Assault and 65th Mechanized Brigade. Attempts by Ukrainian counterattacks at the price of dense losses have ended with partial inhibition of the Russian attack, but the Russian side has the initiative.
From the side of the village Wierbowe they successfully approach paratroopers from the 7th defender Squadron and 100th Reconnaissance Brigade with the support of the 387 Reserve Regiment (with 44 Reserve Air-Desant Division) and 3rd BARS Battalion. Russian paratroopers maneuver tiny groups of soldiers on buggy vehicles.
The Russians have not introduced all available reserves, the conflict to destruct the hack at Rabotino is just beginning. On the left flank on the days of the fight will enter regiments of 76 Guards of the Armed Forces Division from Pskov, the activity of Russian bomb aviation besides increases.
Moving further east to the so-called. Wriemiewski's performance, after the reflection of respective villages by the Ukrainian army in the summertime of 2023, the front was stuck under Staromajorskie and Urożne. However, under the village of Prijutne, in fresh times Russian forces have consistently pushed the Ukrainian 127th Territorial Defence Brigade, and regiments of the Russian 127th Mechanized firearm Division regained lost in the summertime 2023 positions.
South Doniecki and Donetsk operational direction
Russian 68 Army Corps, despite losses, in dense combat successively pushes Ukrainian troops in the overall axis towards the villages of Wodiane and Konstantinivka, occupying further fields and forests, seeking to cut the strategically crucial way of supply of the city garrison-fortress Wuhledar/Ugldar. Its 155th Guarded Marine Brigade, in dense combat progresses taking up the streets of the crucial village of Nowomichaylivka.
To the north of Newmichajlivka Russian 20th Division of Mechanized Rifles gained a strategically crucial point – the farm "Zwierzyniec" and flanks the village from the east. The 150th firearm Division Mechanized after capturing Marinka with a bold maneuver captured the village of Pabieda, rejecting the flocks of Ukrainian soldiers from the 33rd Mechanized Brigade.
The importance of Pabieda underlines her desperate defence by Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers who tried to hold her. Within a fewer weeks of active defence in the village of Pabieda were fought by Ukrainian paratroopers with 79 and 95 Independent Troop Squadrons, as well as units from the 3rd Mechanized Brigade, whose 2 assault groups were sent to counterattack but unsuccessfully.
The prospects of cutting off Ukrainian garrison logistics in Ugledar are not the only ones that open up to the Russians along with taking control of Pobieda village. The troops of the 33rd Mechanized Brigade retreated westward to adjacent forest villages. Their numbers and deployment on the hill will let the Armed Forces of Ukraine to proceed Russian to repel the attack, but now Russian troops can decision not only to Konstantinówka, but besides to Georgieva from the south on the H15 road.
Georgijewka herself lies in the lowland close the reservoir, so the positions located there are very easy to shoot. And the H15 road lies in the hills, which in case it is controlled, will considerably simplify the attack on Georgievka, where 2 assault groups of the Ukrainian 46 Aeromobile Brigade arrived. To the north of Marinka close Krasnogorovka, Russia's Armed Forces secured a base on the confederate outskirts of the town, approaching the 5th Armed firearm Brigade.
Avdievsky operating direction
Russian troops commanded here by a 48-year-old general Andrei Mordwichev After the capture of the city, the fortress of Awdievka continues to attack. The detailed course of the front line hides “the fog of war”. However, everything indicates that the Russians captured the villages of Lastochkino (35 Mechanized firearm Brigade) and Siewierna (1 Slavic Armed firearm Brigade).
In general, on this section of the front, veteran units from the 1st Doniecki Army Corps passed to attack. On the left flank, the Russians brought into combat, regrouped here from the Lugansk area 41 Guards of the National Military Army, whose brigades captured Awdieevka and went on to prosecute the outgoing Ukrainian units. The 35 and 74 Mechanized firearm Brigades are approaching and 55 Mountain firearm Brigades are approaching.
Further to the right from them developed brigades of the 2nd National Army including the 30th and 15th firearm Brigades Mechanized together with the 21st Mechanized Rifles Brigade (with a reinforced structure, de facto being a mini armored division). The Russian assault on this episode is reinforced by regiments of the 90 Guards of the Armoured Division and the force of grouping artillery 944, 238 Artillery Brigades, ‘Kalmius’ Artillery Brigade, 381 Artillery Regiment, 580 Artillery Battalion (reserved) and 439 Rocket Brigade.
On the Ukrainian side are defended by: 3 Self-Self-Standing Brigade “Azov”, 56 and 59 Motorised Brigades, 53, 110 Mechanized Brigades, Legion “Free Russia”, as well as being transferred from Zaporoże: 47 Self-Standing Brigade “Mechanized Brigade”, 116 Mechanized Brigade and 71 Jegrów Brigade, and being in ward 1 The Armoured Brigade.
The Ukrainian side is trying to stabilize the front line, but the Russians have not brought all the reserves into conflict and the attack continues. The Ukrainian Army on the Avdievian front section operates units equipped with its best equipment in this T-84 "Flung", German Leopard-2, and even American Abrams. The Russians are being fought by U.S. military M2A2 Bradley ODS, 27-ton colostrums, with additional BRAT reactive armor and German Marder1A3.
The Russian side equipped its winning troops with T-80 tanks, T-90M "Proryw" tanks, T-72B3M, 2022, BMP-2 and BMP-3 combat infantry cars, and BMP-Terminator-2 tank support vehicles, which have been successfully dealt with by NATO-Wski armored equipment.
The Russian artillery is equipped with laser-guided missiles for the 152 mm (Krasnopol) and 2S4 "Tulipan" 240 mm (Smielczak) mortars. The targets are highlighted by officers equipped with specialized equipment (LCD-1 laser rangefinder), passing through the attack points or drones "Orlan-30".
Bacchutsky operating direction
The Russian side is conducting 1 of 3 tackle operations here. The impact in general direction on the city of Tiiw Jar is led by Russian paratroopers of the 98th defender Air-Desant Division. In designation of the fresh successes of the division, its commander Colonel Evgeny Tonky On February 19, the release of the president of the FR was promoted to Major General. Paratroopers in the attack support: Volunteer Brigade ‘Siewier’, 9th Self-contained firearm Regiment (from Kaliningrad district), 1486 and 1443 Reserve regiments, Reserve Regiment ‘Leningrad’ and Battalion BARS-34 ‘Syberia’.
The city of Krasne/Ivaniskie is invaded by the 11th Guarded Armed Forces and 43, 1435, 1443 Reserve Regiments, 105 Mechanized firearm Regiment. The Russians killed Ukrainian units from the fortifications around the city and entered its construction. They are supported by the 27th Artillery Regiment and the 17th dense Artillery Brigade.
Krasengo is defended by Ukrainian soldiers from the 93rd Mechanized Independent Brigade and 5th Assault Brigade. Russian persistent troops besides conflict to regain the village of Kleshievka successively recovering the area lost in the summertime of 2023.
Krasnoliman operational direction
Russian 20th National Army troops are constantly pushing for Ukrainian troops defending themselves. Her 144th Division of Mechanized Rifles approached about 2 km from Terny and Jampolivka. Ukrainians (21st Mechanized Brigade and 18th Slavic National defender Brigade) slowly, however, give the area back. The only thing left behind is the river Żeriebiet’ which makes it hard to defend.
Under Tabaivka, the Russian 47th Panzer Division slowed down, but the breach formed negatively affects Ukrainian positions. On the Kupinsk operational direction of the Russian General’s “West” Group Evgeny Nikiforova They proceed to press at Sinkivka, tying large Ukrainian forces afraid of attacking the town of Kupansk.
The satellite images show the Russian reserve movement towards the front, which may indirectly indicate that the Russian side will proceed to intensify its actions attached to this in Zaporozh.
Russian aviation is very active and it is both tactical bombers and military aviation.. Russian troops, through officers on the front line of aviation guidance, have effective air support. Russian aviation conducts both direct support missions as well as field isolation missions and strokes on the provisional office of Ukrainian troops, fuel and ammunition bases. This is provided by fresh effectors allowing aircraft to operate outside the Ukrainian OPL range.
The Russian Air Force "hunts" on Ukrainian radars and anti-aircraft systems positions which are attacked with Ch-31P and Ch-59 tats. The Russians have published a number of videos documenting the demolition of R-18 "Malachit" radars or elements of the S-300 p.m. system.
The Russian side slowly, methodically, according to the rules of war art, carries out actions aimed at importantly reducing the possible of the Ukrainian Army's militant capacity. These activities, in the opinion of many analysts, are intended to supply a favourable basis for carrying out 2024 offensive activities of operational importance in the summer.
The Ukrainian Army has moved to strategical defense, conducting extended fortification work, building a number of field fortifications, engineering elements, laying extended minefields, preparing for Russian offensive activities. In the assumptions of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, this aims to exsanguinate the attacking Russian troops, to the level allowing the Ukrainian army to decision to offensive activities.
These assumptions, elaborated by colleagues of president Zelenski, seem powerfully optimistic.
The Russian side, as part of the “Pelling Winter Offensive Gierasimov”, fulfilled a crucial part of the goals set, specified as the liquidation of the Avdievsky Reinforced territory and the capture of the city of Awdievka Fortress itself. It seems that the centre of gravity is presently going to Zaporozhye, where the Russians will want to destruct the "Raboriński performance" and recover their defensive lines from the Ukrainian attack in the summertime of 2023. It remains a puzzle comparative to the passiveness of the “West” Group and the 1st Armoured defender Army.
However, what will happen in the next fewer weeks, as the coming large steps of spring and spring razputica and the impenetrable "muddy sea" will end the winter phase of the 2023/2024 war on Ukraine.
Krzysztof Podgórski
photo by RIA Novosti and wikipedia
