Adam Ostolski's text comes from a series of 27 articles devoted to elections to the European Parliament and prepared by editorial offices from all over Europe, the first edition of which was published present on Voxeurop.
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The elections to the European Parliament will be the 3rd – and penultimate – installment in Poland in the electoral season, which opened parliamentary elections in the autumn of 2023 and will close the presidential elections scheduled for the spring of 2025. The stakes of all 4 campaigns are "rebuffing the state" (institutions, positions in administration and mandates in elected bodies) and taking the electoral support of the ruling Poland by December 2023 of the non-liberal Law and Justice Party. Concrete programs and policies of almost all parties are subordinate to this main struggle: the ruling coalition parties are trying to take over the area while the PiS is trying to defend its state of possession.
In October 2023, Law and Justice won the most votes but lost power. The ruling coalition was formed by the centre-right Citizens' Coalition, the centre-agrarian 3rd Road and the fresh Left. The precedence of the fresh government is to rebuild the regulation of law. However, the coalition's maneuvering field is limited by the President, associated with the erstwhile power and legitimate veto against laws adopted by Parliament. The April 2024 local government elections and the European elections in June 2024 from this point of view are only a step in building the fresh majority, essential to reflect the presidency.
If elections to the European Parliament were held today, the first place and about 1 3rd of the votes could be counted by the Civic Coalition (in the European Parliament belonging to the EPP Group), second place and about one-quarter of the votes of the Law and Justice (ECR), and 3rd place would be competed by the 3rd Road (EPP + Renew), the fresh Left (S&D) and the far right Confederation (ID). As a result, the number of Polish MPs in the EPP and Renew fractions would increase, while the number of representations in the ECR would decrease. In spite of the trend in most countries of the European Union, Polish voters would choose present more centred and little right-wing representatives than before.
However, this does not mean that debate and decisions in circumstantial areas, especially environmental or migration policy, will from now on be little right-wing. On these issues, it is not expected that policy will decision towards the centre: it is alternatively the centre that will decision more to the right.
The most crucial political fact in Poland and the full European Union is now the protests of farmers. Farmers protest imports of agricultural products from Ukraine and against European Green Deal regulations. These protests enjoy social support, which has no precedent in the past of the 3rd Republic. According to a poll by Ipsos for Oko.press and TOK FM, conducted last week of February, as many as 78 percent of Poles and Poles support these protests, including residents of large cities and supporters of the government.
When respondents were confronted with the choice between the interest of Polish farmers and the concern for the environment and climate and the needs of Ukraine, this did not reduce support. The government cannot so ignore farmers' problems, which translates into a tough position in talks with Ukraine and an expanding number of government statements that distance themselves from European climate regulations.
Social opinion attitudes can change, but farmers will stay a key group of voters anyway. Their comparative demobilization in the October elections was 1 of the factors that most affected the outcome. Farmers did not vote for the opposition at the time, but many of them remained at home, giving the field to more mobilized opponents of the government, especially women and young voters.
A fewer months after the election, looking forward to Donald Tusk's “within 100 days” liberalisation of abortion law, women and young voters have reason to be discouraged. Meanwhile, farmers are mobilised as never before and will barely vote for parties forming the current government, although it is not determined whether they choose the national-conservative Law and Justice or the far-right Confederation. Trying to put out protests and settle farmers' claims means that the government will distance itself from the Green Deal both in the national debate and in the European Union.
Another possibly inflammatory subject is border and migration policy. Law and Justice have long accused the parties forming the current government that, subject to the "dictate of Brussels", they intend to open the borders of Poland to unregulated migration. The Citizens' Coalition defends itself by claiming that irregular migration is the work of the predecessors, and the fresh government is trying to seal the boundaries by fixing their mistakes.
For now, the government has listed the Border defender press spokeswoman, but besides continues its predecessors' actions, claiming that only "ethical pushbacks" are presently being performed. From the point of view of humanitarian organisations dealing with violations on the Polish-Belarusian border, the change of government has not improved the respect of human rights towards refugees. Before the elections (European and most likely presidential), the government will not want to show "weakness" towards people trying to get to Poland. As in the case of the Green Deal, this will translate into both home and Polish positions within the European Union.
The elections to the European Parliament in Poland are characterised by a paradox. With respect to voters' votes and mandates in the European Parliament, the focus will decision from right to center. In terms of political discourse and the position of the Polish government in the Council, the point of gravity will decision more to the right.
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