"Tusk left out in an interview between the president of the United States and European allies on Ukraine", thundered 1 of the longest-held stripes in tv Republic history. The right-wing schadenfreude is already so remarkable that it can be given. Donald Tusk, however, is not the main subject of Tomasz Sakiewicz's regular station frame – he is just a bad boss to beat. The real hero of the station was Karol Nawrocki. Even Jarosław Kaczyński on his background began to be presented as colder and without the erstwhile heat.
This can be dropped on the upside of circumstances, yet Nawrocki late won the election, although he was sentenced to be eaten, and the presidency itself began to execute a week ago. No wonder they're excited about it on the right hand, as if it was the first time they played on Amiga. However, 1 can besides agree with Prime Minister Tusk's opinion from the last swearing-in day – the Prime Minister suggested that Jarosław Kaczyński was the saddest individual in the room. And even if he wasn't, he should have. He created a dangerous rival under his own command. Like Poles erstwhile Konrad Mazowiecki invited the Teutonic Knights.
According to the urban legend, Kaczyński's top phobia is that nothing serious will always grow to the right of his right wall. After the last election, it turned out that he had developed at least 2 serious complications: the Confederation with Mentzen as the leader and the Polish Crown Grzegorz Braun. Theoretically, he should be happy. The political scene has clearly moved to the right, and his organization has just gained coalition capacity. However, these 3 groups share much more than it seems. They are mainly connected by the fact that they do not like liberals and are right-wing.
Split right – differences between PiS, Confederation and the Polish Crown
The PiS is simply a organization of ancient activists who collected the first sands inactive in the PRL. They have a broad group of youths, but these have been shaped into the prayer of their elder mentors and acting in the party, are subordinate to them. Before 2023, the faction of Mateusz Morawiecki broke out of this picture, but after losing the election it was broken and so weakened that it was not worth taking care of.
Meanwhile, the Confederacy is simply a mix of forty-year-old libertarians who, although they had a quarrel with Korwin, did not cure Corvinism, and nationalists of the same age. Nationals could be dragged, and specified attempts have already taken place. The problem is that they are now a secondary faction in the Confederation. The primates are led by libertarians, who, after 2027, will most likely definitely prevail in her parliamentary club. Getting nationalists out of the Confederacy will not weaken it, on the contrary – it can bring its support, like Braun's disconnection. Nationals themselves would have support somewhere close the Unpartisan Localities.
The right hand, which is presently on the wave, is not unleavened like stiff nationalists, appearing with Toothless attached to the lapel of the navy, telling about the Church and conventional values that would most gladly decision to the 1920s. Today's right-wing millennials who are behind the Confederacy's success are self-confident, selfish, and disdainful for another people who are more curious in how much the state takes in taxes and what it gets into. The conservative values that are close to them are accepting occasional force and agreeing to a hierarchy, as long as they themselves are closer to the mountain. They treat PiS as little and little comforting grandparents to be disposed of somehow. Their imagination of the state is completely different from that of the Kaczyński party, who wishes to increase its competence and control what can be done.
The PiS coalition with the Confederation of Mentzen, however, is easier to imagine than the PiS coalition with Braun. PiS Braun despises it, although he hides it wisely. The Polish Crown is an anti-American and anti-Semitic party. PiS – radically pro-American and philosomic. You can't get married that far. All you can do is effort to take distant any of the soft voters from your rival, which the PiS is trying to do by sowing Euroscepticism and sharpening its position towards Ukraine.
Nawrocki – a political novice who is ambitious beyond Kaczyński
In this complicated situation, under Kaczyński's right side, there was a 3rd actor, who is simply a political novice, but the ambitions exceed the another two. In addition, he learns very quickly, in just a fewer months he became a assured politician, who feels large at 1 of the most crucial positions in Poland. In winning the second round, he won the votes of both Mensenists and Braunists, proving that he could combine what is incompatibility for Kaczyński.
Nawrocki has no opinion on the optimal way the state, economics, social policy or wellness care operates. His program was a mishmasz, which assumed large investments combined with a thinning of the budget by almost PLN 100 billion. Nawrocki has opinions on historical issues (Volyn settlement), purely political (present government must go) and sports (Lechia Gdańsk) and besides believes that Poland should be strong, rich and influential. In another cases, he can be plastic to meet the expectations of possible allies.
Besides, he's definitely more assertive than Andrzej Duda. It is highly likely that president Kaczyński will find out about this in this term. At the highest positions in the law firm, he planted capable politicians of the young generation of PiS (Zzefernaker, Bogucki, Przypocz) who would feel more like the president's people than the organization after a twelve months. Adam Andrushkiewicz is simply a typical nationalist who went to the Law and Justice only due to his desire to prosecute a career. Apart from them, not counting Wojciech Kolarski from the erstwhile law firm, there are only 4 erstwhile co-workers of Nawrocki from the IPN and Prof. Sławomir Cenckiewicz, who himself did not get the position of the head of the IPN, due to the fact that Kaczyński does not like him. Nawrocks did not let him drop off any overseer, which would make it easier for him to cut himself off from the Law and Justice or to run his own game inside.
Nawrocks are becoming increasingly popular. In the July CBOS Trust Survey, he placed second, behind Duda. Popularity gains primarily on the right. On tv Republika is feded like a stone star, all his appearances and activities are shown. There are sometimes 7 brief information about it in a row on the bottom bar. The warm welcome to Lechia Stadium was boring, like news of the day. Even erstwhile the commercials start, Nawrocks come out, recommending their book.
Instant He besides gained Donald Trump's sympathy. He visited the White home before the election, and Trump congratulated him respective times on his victory. On September 3, Nawrocki is scheduled to visit Washington again, which is likely to be his first abroad visit. The American administration informed KPRM that Trump wished to keep Polish-American relations with Nawrock, not Tusk. Thanks to which he was present at a distant gathering of EU and US leaders on Ukraine and negotiations with Putin. tv Republika spent half the day on it.
Right-wing takeover script – from PiS to Confederate Coalition
The fresh president is highly active, as we have already seen in the election campaign. He intends to fill the government with draft laws, forcing nominations to top positions, regularly convening Cabinet Council, including abroad policy or yet – expanding influence in the military. He just forced the promotion to Major General Adam Rodzikowski, while rejecting most of the MON nominations. For the government it will be a hell of a challenge right now, but for Kaczyński – soon.
Nawrocki's appetite will grow as he eats. If he is the perpetrator, can influence the government, has contacts in the US and popularity among the young right, why should Kaczyński, having the lowest assurance rate of all political leaders in Poland, be considered the leader? Especially since Nawrocki managed to collect profits from moving the political scene to the right. Only 2 years ago, erstwhile social sentiments did not disagree from those present, the Law and Justice under Kaczyński lost his 3rd term.
So the Nawrocks will begin to spread not only in the area of executive power, but besides on the right. Before the elections, she will not always make decisions in accordance with the interests of the Law and Justices, to show the president that she must settle with him. This does not mean that he will make good decisions for the government. It will harm him, but methodically and selectively, so that the PiS does not become besides strong before the election and inactive needs his popularity. That way, he'll be able to get the president to put his people in good places on the list in exchange for authoritative support. If he could introduce about 30 people to the parliament in this way, he would have a crucial position at the PiS club, inactive residing in Krakowskie Przedmieście.
And that's not all. Nawrocki can besides become an acusher of the PiS coalition with the Confederacy. Mentzen might not agree to a simple agreement with Kaczyński, but to a coalition agreement signed under the care of president Nawrocki – preferably even in the palace – already so. Especially that Nawrocki can promise him that he will stand on defender of libertarian expectations and veto all the postural laws that will pass without the Confederacy's support. Furthermore, he will not agree to enter the government compromised in the eyes of the young right-wing politicians of the Law and Justice – that is, primarily Morawiecki and his people, or possibly the old faiths of the president. In the process of moderating coalition talks, respective of his people could besides be active in the government.
As a result, he would have his MPs and ministers, and in the organization he would have cut at least 1 enemy faction. Even then, he would be the strongest president in the past of the 3rd Republic, with a consecutive way to the final takeover of the leader of the Polish right hand. In the second case, he would gotta wipe himself off with Przemysław Czarnek, who would be an highly hard opponent. Only alternatively of a fratricidal war, he could simply deal with it – you get formal power as organization president and prime minister, but you admit my actual leadership, you inform me of everything, you respect my people in the government, you consult your decisions and you don't discuss mine.
The Nawrock & Czarnek duo in different configurations could regulation for a truly long time. Especially since in another political options candidates for specified strong leaders cannot be seen. It's hard to anticipate that Toothless and Ionian would stand up to them. In KO, the main dolphin candidate, Rafał Trzaskowski, was burned, Poland 2050 is able to decompose, PSL is simply a niche party, and the left is broken, although without it it it would be hard to get good results. It's not much consolation that the full planet is turning to the right, so erstwhile this script comes true, possibly we'll just be in mainstream.
