With Andrzej Duda in the Presidential Palace there is no chance of liberalisation of the abortion bill. At the same time, putting the subject aside for another “after the election” will make the race for presidency in 2025 the opposition lose. That is why the anti-abortion government must be amended – if the ontological arguments themselves ("women are man"), demographic arguments ("in this country fear of getting pregnant"), historical and geographical (we are in Europe) are not convincing enough.
Let's start with a fewer facts. The origin of the October triumph of the democratic opposition can be disputed, but 1 origin does not rise doubt: between September and November 2020, during gigantic protests against the Constitutional Tribunal's judgement on abortion, the support averaged for Law and Justice fell from 39.6 to 31.3%, to then never exceed 36%.
It is actual that at the same time the alleged Parliament was voted on. Five animals, which discouraged many farmers from the Law, but after the resignation of Kaczyński of his only “progressive” project, their support was recovered (in September 2020, the Law Office supported more than 70% of farmers, then the support fell to 30% in a month, but yet – as indicated by the summertime poll for Ipsos – in this group, as many as 66% of voters voted for the United Right).
Thus, the costly conservative wing of the opposition: unfortunately, this government has overturned angry women (and any male allies). Not only they (and them), it's clear, but without them there would be no victory. Hypothetically, if only women voted, the opposition would have 260 tickets, and if only women before the 40s, she could most likely reject the President's veto. Even more meaningful is attendance. 73.7 percent among women compared to 72% among men may not appear as a colossal difference (although it should be noted that this is the first specified case in the past of Poland), but the devil is in the details.
Among people under the age of 29, the PiS loses to moles, and women's attendance advantage is tiny (1.6%), but differences in voting against the Confederacy and in favour of the Left very quantifiable (3.6 to 23.6%). In subsequent age groups, the mobilisation of women was already importantly higher (up to 39 and up to 49 years of age by 7.5 percent – both Law and Justice have lost the elections). In a group of up to 59 years, where the overall attendance was highest, the female advantage melts and the PiS wins, but thanks to them to a comparatively smaller extent. Kaczyński's organization collects the vast majority of the pool among the oldest voters, but in this group of women votes little than men (and they vote for the Law and Justice.)
Let us add that advanced attendance (not only women) in younger age groups is simply a comparatively fresh phenomenon in Poland – the older ones have always been very disciplined.
Will the women take the PiS' triumph again?
Let's put the results of a year ago. IPSOS poll for OKO.press of November 2022, he pointed out that support for the right to terminate pregnancy by Week 12 prevails in all electorates but for this Law and Justice. In the case of KO, Left and then Poland 2050 is overwhelming. Interestingly, it besides concerns peoples and Confederates, although their tiny participation in the test requires caution on the results.
The advantage of "yes" is clear in agrarian and tiny cities, and in average and large cities – again, overwhelming. This is the same by level of education (the majority by ‘yes’ everywhere, the higher, the more). The most unambiguous – and crucial due to the results of the elections described above – is the division by age and gender. The regulation is simple: in those groups where the opposition wins decisively, the advantage of supporters and supporters of abortion rights is very clear or overwhelming. Where he loses... it's very clear, too.
The conclusion for the democratic opposition from the list of turnouts, electoral support and relation to abortion is very simple: support for women's right to decide for themselves is the highest in those groups whose advanced election mobilisation is crucial for opposition parties. These are the same groups in which attendance growth was top in the last election, and which in the past was the hardest (except for a village that long recorded very low attendance, but this was in the times before the PO-PiS conflict).
In another words, those, and especially those whose opposition will request the most in 2025 (let's leave the local government and European elections, due to the fact that they're a small bit of a pair of galoshes), the most eager to go out about abortion on the street, the most support it in declarations, and at the same time the habits of going to elections have the least earned. If their hopes in this area are disappointed, they will most likely stay home, giving the field to young colleagues, more frequently voting for the far right, and to grandparents and grandmothers, usually voting for the Law and Justice. And if that happens, the demographic pension for the opposition in the election of 2025 will go to hell – and with it hope that the views of young people will yet find a transition to the law (and, by the way, justice, of specified decency not to mention).
What is the consequence of this in practice, since Andrzej Duda, let us repeat, will undoubtedly veto any abortion bill that will even bring us closer to the state of a civilized European country? There are at least a fewer essential steps. First the opportunism of law enforcement, then the change of regulations and the adaptation of practice to the letter of law, yet the change of law itself.
First, a fresh compromise
First, we request to return to the compromise... but not the 1 about which conservatives and the most likely centres say sometimes with a nostalgia. It is not about the unfortunate deal, which was forged between bishops, parish priests, journalists of the most crucial newspapers, Catholic fundamentalists and alleged open Catholics in the 1990s, which was hypocritically regarded as a "golden means" and sustained until the judgement of the Court of Poland of 2020.
To begin with, we request a temporary return to another unwritten agreement between the authorities and citizens, the 1 before 2015. Its content was: the letter of the law is repressive (then, let's remind, it was also, though a small little than today), but it will not in practice be applied by the state. Ergo: no 1 enters your gynaecological offices with police will enter (no 1 will look in the parcels and envelopes with pills), and if he comes in or looks, it will be a large deal. For any reason, specified cases (although formally prosecuted) could only be prosecuted occasionally before the Law and Justice governments.
This, of course, was not (or at the time) a good solution, but inactive much better than the current situation – especially in developed conditions in fresh years bottom-up aid networks – and implementable immediately. Without a vote, but with the power of political will, only a fewer ministers (in the ministries most likely attributable to the civilian Coalition) and, of course, the future Prime Minister. For this erstwhile "a small social democrat", and present possibly the "almost feminist" campaigning in the subordinate services of the alleged policing opportunism should not be a challenge beyond possibilities.
Instead of operating control of “pills after” retailers registered in Poland, valuable time could be spent on officers or hotel funds for programs Prevention of home violenceDon't you? What is more, it is frequently adequate to prevent the abuse of current regulations – present the fact of abortion itself is treated as a prerequisite for suspected termination of pregnancy, in turn as a prerequisite for aiding, which serves primarily to harass women and their loved ones.
The second step, besides attainable without looking at Belvedere with president Duda and the "conscience" of Members to a tiny extent, are ministerial regulations. For example, the Minister of Health's decision to lower the request for a doctor to issue a wellness or life hazard certificate as grounds for abortion. Currently, a qualified doctor is needed. Allowing specified certificates to POZ doctors would importantly increase women's access to treatments.
Also in this hotel it is frequently adequate to abide by the existing law. The intellectual crisis as 1 of the reasons for a patient's life or wellness hazard is simply a WHO standard, the same is the position of the Ombudsman. The Ministry may issue a regulation, in which it declaratively recalls this fact. It does not gotta make fresh standards, but only implement existing standards.
Before we get free of the “clause of conscience”
Finally: it is the Minister of wellness who supervises the implementation of the alleged conscience clause. Its complete abolition would require a revision of the 1996 Act, but again, even strict compliance with it would change the situation of patients for the better. It so happens that, under the law, a doctor who refuses to execute a benefit for worldly reasons is obliged to indicate to the patient the real (!) anticipation of obtaining a benefit from another doctor or another medical entity. Nor does he have the right to refuse to supply in the event of a hazard of failure of life, severe bodily injury or severe wellness disorder.
If these records were enforced and the full institutions were not treated as people with "consumation", many women would not die and even more avoided fear, suffering and injury. Translating this dead today, although the current evidence into the practice of doctors and directors of wellness care institutions, is simply a task for the Minister of Health, but besides for the president of the NFZ and national and provincial consultants for obstetrics and gynaecology. They are all subject to government administration – the Prime Minister, the Minister or the Voivodes. The NFZ may besides impose penalties for failure to execute the medical services provided for under the contract in the abuse of the clause and the Minister of wellness may control it.
Notabene, an unfortunate "clause of conscience" was introduced by the Minister of wellness and Social Welfare in the government of Tadeusz Mazowiecki – Andrzej Kosiniak-Kamysz. It would be good if the government with his boy in the function of deputy prime minister began to take her current form seriously, until Parliament manages to remove this indiscriminately conservative evidence from the Doctor and Dentist Professionals Act – according to the presumption that if a person's conscience does not let a individual to execute medically based treatments, then he orders to decide life and death against the will of the patient, then he does not should be a doctor.
Take the Hollow from the left
The 3rd step is yet the bill. First 2 projects – conservative, called ‘rescue’, about depenalization of abortion and assistance in the procedure and liberal, assuming the right to execute it on request up to week 12 – the left has already announced, thus investigating the anticipation of voting in the present Sejm of solutions that were not included in the coalition agreement. For this moment, PSL and Simon Holownia's declarations do not announce a majority in the Sejm, yet it is worth it. Why?
To make the election not only in the infirmary and not only under the package feel that something has changed in their lives, but besides see in relations with the Sejm – that individual from this government is fighting for their rights. To force the government center, with the Prime Minister at the head, to self-determine on women's rights in the vote, not just in winged words. Finally, in order to recognise the real arrangement of forces in the fight, to capture the Members and Members who are hesitant, to yet research at what concrete cost these more conservative members of Parliament will be willing to find within themselves the courage of following the progressive Spirit of Acts and the democratic will of universality.
This first reconnaissance of combat can only be an introduction to the right conflict for the government of souls and an advantage in the polls. With the following months of 2024, presidential elections will be an increasingly crucial context for all political forces. What do they change?
A lot. His run for the position of head of state already on the day of the inauguration of the Sejm began the first candidate. Sceptical towards the right of a female to interrupt pregnancy on request and a referendum supporter (why it is simply a bad idea, precisely explains, for example, Natalia Broniarczyk in a conversation with OKO.press), Marshal of the Sejm Simon Holovnia. In the face of a surge of legal challengers (from the Confederacy to the PiS), it can only be effectively fought from the left. The biggest capital of this competitor with left – and tongue in weight in the game by 50% in the expected second circular – will be the support of the same millions which in October 2015 took the triumph of the United Right. Their acquisition will require credibility regarding the right to interrupt pregnancy.
Inaction would be unforgivable.
With the upcoming presidential election, president Andrzej Duda will be an increasingly costly alibi for inaction in this case. Why should these fewer – or possibly respective – percentages of the polls at all bother with the polls if the fresh presidency will not change anything in an crucial issue for them? If the president of the ruling camp since 2023 does not want to sign the liberalisation of the bill, and even if he wishes, he will have nothing, due to the fact that until the next election, the parliamentary majority itself will not be willing to give them fundamental rights?
Therefore, the practice of law must now be shifted and its letter changed. besides on the bill level. In particular, bringing the missing PSL and the 3rd Way Members to the side of liberalisation of abortion law would be a powerful signal to many voters that they have a reason to vote. And serious tools of persuasion will be in the hands of the Prime Minister, with a full basket of tasty carrots, or fructoses – he must not be obliged to exert force on the shoulders of citizens and citizens, which would gotta request the same thing on the streets again. Just as Andrzej Duda's veto cannot justify idleness, so the opposition of the most conservative government coalition politicians must be a challenge for Tusk, not an excuse. due to the fact that if the right-wing candidate – possibly utmost – wins the presidency, it will be the most costly political excuse of the world.
For the consultation, I would like to thank Kamila Ferenc, a lawyer for the Foundation for Women and national household Planning.
