Mateusz Morawiecki claims that the Law and Justice has interior public opinion surveys that indicate a possible surprise in the upcoming presidential elections. According to his words, Karol Nawrocki, a candidate supported by the Law and Justice, minimally leads in the second circular with Rafał Trzaskowski.
– Regularly in the second circular is very tight, 51 to 49 percent in favour of Karol Nawrocki," Morawiecki said in an interview with journalists.
However, authoritative polls published in the media do not confirm this advantage. Current data suggests that Trzaskowski maintains respective percent points of advantage over his rival. The difference between the interior data of the Law and Public investigation raises questions about the party's communication strategy and preparations for a possible electoral overtime.
Despite the differences in the polls, there is expanding optimism in the ranks of Law and Justice. According to the “Faktu”, improving Nawrocki's ratings are the consequence of respective factors: a good performance in the debate in Koński, an increased mobilisation of organization supporters during the celebration of the 1000th anniversary of the Kingdom of Poland and clear support from president Andrzej Duda.
The support from the current president was peculiarly important. According to sources close to the PiS staff, the decision of Andrzej Duda was to be taken after a series of talks with organization leaders, including Jarosław Kaczyński and Mateusz Morawiecki. Without a clear signal of unity in the United Right camp, Nawrocki's chances of triumph were considered negligible.
Internal analyses in the PiS staff besides propose that Nawrocki effectively consolidates the centre-right electorate and takes over any of the votes of voters disappointed by Trzaskovsky's current policy. He is to be assisted by the image of a candidate outside the conventional organization arrangement and his erstwhile occupation as president of the IPN, where he built a reputation for a determined and effective person.
PiS hopes that the eventual triumph of Nawrocki will become “the effect of the snowball” – each affirmative news is to further mobilize the electorate of the ruling party. The staff of the organization emphasize that it will be crucial for voters from smaller towns and agrarian areas, where the PiS traditionally has the highest support.
All indications are that the election run is entering a decisive phase, and the actual arrangement of forces will not be revealed until authoritative results are announced. In the meantime, the PiS focuses on media offensive, organizing further local meetings and maintaining a advanced mobilisation of its own terrain structures.
Will the “sensation” announced by Morawiecki become a fact? We'll know the answer in the coming weeks.
