The past fewer weeks have been a series of bad news for Ukraine and Putin's opponents in Europe. Donald Trump accepted Russian territorial demands and without consulting allies began negotiations on the end of the war. He besides pointed out at the outset that he did not intend to engage US forces in any peacekeeping missions in Ukraine, leaving this to Europeans.
While the Americans were preparing for talks with the Russians in Saudi Arabia, Europe responded with a summit in Paris, where the leaders of large Britain, Germany, Italy, Poland, Denmark and the Netherlands arrived at president Macron's invitation, as well as representatives of the European Union. The subject of the talks was naturally the situation in Ukraine, and the aim was to make a common strategy for the Trump Volt.
The European expeditionary corps in Ukraine?
Monday's talks at the Elysée Palace brought disappointment to those who expected the swift and decisive decision of European leaders. There are fewer specifics behind the general declarations – these will be developed in the coming weeks. The thought is being considered sending European troops to defender the ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. about 30,000 soldiers would supply the first primarily air and sea support, while land forces would be distant from the front lines. There is so no mention of a demarcation line guarded by NATO forces, and any assistance would be little than requested by president Zelenski, who had previously called for a more many peace mission with the US.
The European contingent would consist primarily of French and British troops, although another countries specified as Sweden are besides mentioned. Donald Tusk declared that Poland would not participate in this – the reluctance of the Polish government may be influenced by calculations related to the ongoing presidential campaign, during which politicians of the PO turned out to be vulnerable to anti-Ukrainian moods. The sending of Polish soldiers to the border with Russia was clearly assessed as a decision besides risky and unpopular among voters.
For akin reasons, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz abstained from a circumstantial declaration, which He'll most likely say goodbye to the office soon.. The Social politician will most likely replace the pro-Ukrainian chadek Friedrich Merz, so it is not possible to regulation out the correction of the German position. The question is, won't Emmanuel Macron's determination be diminished in the meantime, which next door Keira Starmera is the main initiator of European efforts to safe peace in Ukraine, but faces a complex interior situation in its own country.
International tensions, chronic home crisis
Since last year's parliamentary election France is in political chaos and although François Bayrou's cabinet established in December managed to push the adoption of the budget for the current year (on which his predecessor was killed) and survived the first vot of distrust, it is not free from problems. There is no parliamentary majority behind the liberal-conservative government, so losing the support of nationalists can bring its end at any time.
Moreover, it has late become apparent that in the Catholic school of Notre-Dame de Bétharram, at the ft of the Pyrenees, there have been many acts of sexual force and pedophilia, and that the current Prime Minister as a deputy from the region and for a period of time the Minister of Education has received complaints about the behaviour of teachers he has chosen to ignore. The Left so gained further reason to request his head, but so far he does not have adequate parliamentary support to force the resignation.
Although there is no announcement of the Prime Minister's imminent dismissal at this moment, the instability of the government is an additional, though not new, concern for president Macron, who has ruled with tied hands for many months. This forces a conservative policy above all at national level, but it is besides an embarrassing condition for diplomatic actions, as the parliament could attempt, for example, to halt plans to send soldiers to Ukraine. That is most likely why the president invited the leaders of parliamentary groups to the talks on Thursday 20 February.
Macron meets with organization leaders, but consensus lacks
The outgoing politicians seemed to agree at least on any issues – practically everyone talked about the request to affect Ukraine and Europe in the US and Russia's peace talks. The central right-wing government of France has gained support from the majority of the People's Front (NFP) to effort to strengthen European cooperation and autonomous EU defence development. Otherwise, the utmost right and left-wing France is seen by the Disgraceful, skeptical assessment of transnational safety systems. They believe that France's independency in this field should be a priority.
Both wings of the French Parliament besides combine opposition to sending soldiers to Ukraine. The thought natural rated RN president Jordan Bardella, repeated to him close nationalists Éric Ciotti, excluding European intervention without US participation, but the presidential intentions were besides dismissed by communists and disbeliefs who thought that military engagement would conflict with the pursuit of peace. Jean-Luc Mélenchon on your blog He further criticised "servilism" towards NATO, calling the alliance a relic of the 20th century. The alternate would be sovereign France, assertive of the US and geared towards working with the global South.
Although Trump's actions are conducive to undermining the primacy of Euro-Atlantic relations, Paris is not planning a major adjustment in its abroad policy and intends to focus on reducing the harm caused by American actions. This suggests the actions of Emmanuel Macron, promising closer European defence cooperation. Will there be a peace mission sent to Ukraine to defender the implementation of a possible peace treaty? Much depends on how much the president of France can overcome interior opposition to the engagement of French soldiers in Ukraine.
