As shortly as the projected election results were announced, it was apparent that we would be facing a change of leader in the presidential race. This was evident even after the reaction of the staff and the candidates themselves. At the electoral evening of the Civic Coalition, authoritative optimism and poorly masked panic prevailed. In the PiS, the temper of triumph. No wonder simple elective arithmetic suggests that the best chance of taking the president's seat present is Karol Nawrocki. Although its advantage is not essential, it is clear adequate that it allows it to dictate the conditions of gameplay.
These will not be easy for Rafał Trzaskowski And his staff. Mainly because, as the first circular of elections shows, the electorate in Poland has clearly moved to the right. present left-wing and centre-left voices are about 46% of voters. About 52% are centre-right or clear right. This means that in order to think of the presidency, Trzaskowski must win all the votes of the centre-left electorate and even any voters Sławomir Mentzen. It won't be easy.
I'm sure. Adrian Zandberg, who built his full election run on the protest of the governments of the current coalition, will not be willing to politically support his rivals. Especially since he faced a unique chance to send the Left strategy into the political dumpster. Focusing in his run on social demands, not planet views, he proved that in Poland real request for a new, different left. However, the Seym left “spoke” is not truly needed by anyone. Zandberg is playing for a advanced stake. He doesn't seem to have any intention of losing her due to her false loyalty.
In turn, the acquisition by Trzaskovsky of the vote of Mentzen voters, while trying to keep a clearly left-wing electorate, seems to be an equivalence on the border of impossibility. Furthermore, Sławomir Mentzen himself dictated the conditions in this case.
"Electors are not sacks of potatoes, they cannot be forced and told to vote for. But we can aid make a decision," the Confederate leader said. Competing politicians have been invited to the youtube Mentzen channel, where they are to address his programme proposals. The politician determines the following statements of support from the future president:
1. I will not sign any bill that raises existing taxes, contributions, fees or introduces fresh fiscal burdens.
2. I will not sign any law limiting cash turnover and will stand defender against Polish gold.
3. I will not sign any law limiting the freedom of expression in accordance with the Polish Constitution.
4. I will not let Polish soldiers to be sent to Ukraine.
5. I will not sign the Act on ratification of Ukraine's accession to NATO.
6. I will not sign any law limiting Poles' access to weapons.
7. I will not agree to transfer any powers of the authorities of the Republic of Poland to the bodies of the European Union.
8. I will not sign ratification of any fresh EU treaties weakening Poland's role, e.g. by weakening the vote or taking distant the right of veto.
We already know that Karol Nawrocki agreed to these conditions. It's hard to be surprised. Obtaining Mentzen voters, unlike Grzegorz Braun's voters ready to vote for everyone but Trzaskowski, is the key for Nawrocki to seal the victory. However, if Nawrocki decides to accept the program's demands, his rival would paradoxically make Mentzen the actual winner of these elections. It was Mentzen who extracted his bias from the cloud of anti-systemic absurdity and introduced to political salons. Now he has imposed a public debate area on his competitors. It is simply a triumph not only in a metapolitical sense but besides purely functional. Mentzen, a comparatively young politician, is now increasing up to be the actual leader, not only in his generation, but on the widely understood right.
Is Nawrock's presidency certain? Definitely not, although it is highly likely. The next fewer days will be a test of nerves. As an unexpected leader of Nawrocka, he does not request to be extravaganced, just do not make any major mistakes. However, contrary to appearances, it will not be that simple.
On the another hand, in the race to the presidential seat, the nominee Jarosław Kaczyński has unexpected allies. Self-proclaimed moral authorities, who have been teaching and beating Poles for years, and this time proved reliable. "Complete drama, election results show that we live in an anti-Semitic country (the results of Braun) and that 1 3rd of Poles like a bodyguard and a wiseman to be president (because “our” means whose?) than a decent and competent man. We don't truly like democracy, we don't value freedom, we loath equality and tolerance. We request a dense shoe on our necks and an illusion that erstwhile a gangster goes to a church he is simply a good man" – she thundered in social media Magdalena Wednesday. And it was not an isolated voice.
Does Rafał Trzaskowski have any chance under specified circumstances? If I were to look at them anywhere, it would be in the electorate's mobilization that did not vote in the first circular of elections. However, given the evidence attendance that accompanied us last Sunday, it will not be easy. So it seems that Donald Tusk should slow get utilized to the thought of further years of co-habitation with the president from an enemy political camp. And to focus on maintaining the sustainability of its ruling coalition, so that it would actually be years, not months.
Przemysław Piasta
