The left has been in government for a year, for the first time since Miller and Belka. And yet barely anyone seems to think the last 12 months of her success. Rather, the word that best describes this year is “stagnationIt’s okay. ”
The stagnation not only in the sense that support for the Left inactive varies around 10%. It's besides that the full formation seems to be in a state of suspension.
Let us callback that the current Left was formed from an alliance of 3 forces: SLD, Spring and Together (formally the second is inactive a separate party). The motivation for this alliance was mainly fear – that there would be no left-wing representation in the Sejm.
The rescue mission worked. Left survived as a political force. Question: what's next?
The current expression seems to be exhausted. The increasing conflicts between a leg together that did not enter the governmentAnd the SLD-Spring leg that entered the government.
First of all, nobody – neither in the Left, nor among its fans – thinks that the current version of the Left can race seriously with KO or PiS. The summit of ambition is to stay above the threshold of entry into the Sejm. And that is at best, due to the fact that any left-wing MPs seem to be at the tallness of their ambition to be on the KO's lists.
The left is so the most crucial choice since the 3 parties have formed an alliance.
“Kowalski, options!”
If 1 wanted to take the dilemmas of the Left symbolically, 1 could say that 2 paths are drawn before it: the way of Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk and the way of Paulina Matysiak.
I emphasize the word "symbolically". I do not mean that Dziemianovich-Bąk and Matysiak are the 2 most crucial people on the parliamentary left. Others, from Włodzimierz Czarzasty to Magdalena Biejat, can besides play this role. Nor is it that supporters of left-wing politics must choose which of these 2 Members they like or prefer. I think quite a few people inactive value both. The point is that the political trajectory of Dziemianowicz-Bąk and Matysiak is not only the consequence of their individual decisions, but they depict real tensions and dilemmas in the environment of the Polish left.
So what are the paths of the 2 messengers?
Path Dziemianovich-Bąk In short: enter the centre-liberal government And effort to play as much as you can.
"Try to play" means 2 things here. First, implement as many left-wing demands as possible. On a simple rule – in order to have perjury, 1 must be part of power, and so be in government. Secondly, build yourself recognition, credibility and support among voters of another parties, mainly the Civic Coalition. It is not a secret that any people vote for KO alternatively out of fear of Kaczyński and Ziobro than out of love for Tusk. So possibly a charismatic politician could gradually drag these voters to the left?
The hazard of taking this way is that all the most crucial decisions are made by individual else – the Civic Coalition with Prime Minister Tuski at the head. Your ability to act is limited, and it falls on you socially Anger for all bad decisions the current government. Part of the left-wing environment besides gives you a hard time for the "libk" government.
Path Pauline Matysiak In short: do not enter the government, leave your free hands erstwhile it comes to his criticism and possible alliances with another political forces.
You don't gotta explain that the government is not making further left-wing promises. Nor that he is implementing a program that is profoundly contrary to left-wing values. You gain trust in those who do not trust the “libs” due to the fact that they believe that they act exclusively in the interests of a more prosperous group of Poles, specified as developers. And you can stand free to advocate the ideas of “over divisions”, i.e. those that seem to besides talk to the right political scene – like the celebrated Central Communication Port.
There are 2 risks here. First of all, you have a tiny act, due to the fact that opposition in Poland will not do much. You can criticize, postulate and comment, but you can't do much. Secondly, under political conditions, duopol "opening up to all" means beginning up to the Law and Justice.
So you control the hazard of dependence from 1 powerful player, the Civic Coalition, to the hazard of dependence from another powerful player who is not rather celebrated for making alliances beneficial to both sides (Ask Self-defense and the League of Polish Families). You're besides risking losing your organization support, since most of your fellow jury members are in favour of being in government, and surely not in favour of cooperating with the Law and Justices.
Because Tusk got mad.
After a year of operation of the fresh government and investigating both these strategies, their supporters may cast arguments in favour and against.
Did Dziemianovich-Bąk play anything as Minister of Labour in the Tusk government? And surely – the supporters of the strategy of joining the government will respond. The widow’s pensionOh, my God! Active parent! Social workers' allowances!
What is more – they can add – the minister has increased its popularity. W a assurance survey IBRIS for Onetu from January 2024 44 percent of respondents said that Dziemianowicz-Bąk did not know; April 42.2 percent, and August (once again IBRiS) already "only" 31.8%.
Not so fast! – the opponents can resist. Remember what happened erstwhile Dziemianovich-Bąk announced raising the minimum wage to 60% of the average wage? Tusk – as he tends to do – "was angry" and rapidly tempered the minister. And erstwhile Dziemianovich-Bąk wanted to put worker protection in the Signal Act? The proposal was rejected by the voices... of the co-coalists of the Left. These are just 2 of the many examples showing limited capabilities in the Tusk government.
Let us add that the Left besides fails to settle matters which according to the polls are very crucial to her electorate: partnerships and abortion liberalisation. And if that's not enough, you inactive gotta shine your eyes due to unreasonable proposals from the Civic Coalition (loan zero percentage) and the 3rd Way (reduction of the wellness contribution).
What does Horala want?
And how was the Matysiak MP doing this year?
Great! – her supporters will shout. By its commitment to improvement projects, mainly Central Communication PortShe broke into the right-wing bubble. There were invitations to interviews, there were praises from people who do not have the habit of speaking positively about the left, like Marcin Horala from the Law and Justice, with whom, by the way, founded an association. Moreover, it has delighted any leftist sympathizers and commentators who are looking forward to a "patriotic" left. I don't think there's another individual on the left present who'd be as enthusiastic about social media as Matysiak.
Rafał Woś even proposed that Matysiak compete in the presidential election.
"If Matysiak had been a candidate, she would have had until the day of the first circular (or possibly longer) guaranteed permanent publicity. She could usage this as an chance to implement her own thought of a “other left”. 1 which has not yet been in Poland, and which is located somewhere “to the left of the PiS, to the right of the libs”’ – writes Go on.
Is that a success?
Hola, hola – the opponents of this strategy will answer. The enthusiasm of any commentators is nice, but what are the real successes of Paulina Matysiak? As a individual outside the government, he can't boast even a small bit of what Dziemianovich-Bąk did. It is besides not very clear whether its initiatives in any way translate into support wider than the fewer thousands of net sympathizers. The sad reality is that for present Matysiak does not even support his own political formation. She became a soloist.
Some would most likely add that it is played by the PiS. someway Horala did not burn to cooperate in the name of improvement erstwhile Kaczyński organization was in power. He's only doing it now that he doesn't gotta do anything real. on CPK or any another infrastructure initiative. He needs cooperation with Matysiak only to make a negative atmosphere around the actions of the current government.
Who's right?
If I were to choose a strategy with more chances of success, I would point to the 1 chosen by Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk. Politics is simply a squad game, and success requires a solid political background.
Dziemianovich-Bąk has specified facilities. Outside Members and Members (although there are besides reports of divisions) the remainder of the Left politicians support participation in the Tusk government. If Dziemianovich-Bąk had competed in the presidential election, she would have had a organization device behind her. We can criticise the mediocre results of the Left, but it is inactive almost 2 million votes and solid state budget funding.
Woś suggests that she start building Matysiak in the presidential election. However, he does not appreciate how much mobilisation this requires. The difference between gaining support in social media and creating an effective political formation is immense – and Matysiak is most likely aware of that.
The thought that Poland has area for More Popular Left: patriotic, focused on social issues and breaking out of the duoole KO and PiS. But that is easier said than done. An example is Michał Kołodziejczak, who was to become specified a folk grandstand and yet landed on the lists of KO.
All initiatives to break the KO and the PiS duo in fresh years — Palikota, Petru, Ziobry, Gowin or late Holownia — ended in subjecting “new force” to 1 of the 2 political giants.
It is for this reason that there is no point in making accusations that “Dzemianovich-Bąk sold herself to liberals” or “Matisiak sold itself to writers”. Both operate within the existing duopol — whatever they do, it can be interpreted as supporting 1 of the 2 largest parties.
It was not Matysiak or Dziemianovich-Bąk who created specified a political scene. If you look for the guilty on the left, you should ask who squandered the possible of the SLD, which erstwhile had finances, support and media facilities, which even the PiS and KO could envy today, but which for today's left hand is completely unattainable. This is the old SLD Guard, any of which conveniently placed on the KO lists, left Poland in the embrace of 2 right-wing formations.
For the Polish left it is simply a good thing that present it has the chance to test in practice various strategies dealing with this dual. With all the problems of this environment, 1 can say at least that it went from purely publicist to political work.
