When the elections are coming, it is possible to be certain that the Polish right - the 1 from the Law and the smaller right-wing centres - will launch her theatre of horror, trying to mobilize voters by fear. Various monsters and demons were cast in the main role. From the “ideology of gender”, to LGBT+ people, refugees, migrants, to the green order and worms that the European Commission will be forced to feed the needy necks of Poles.
However, a fresh monster appeared this season: "Roman variant". It is him that the Polish right most frequently scares in fresh weeks. What precisely does it mean, and why do you request the right hand?
If they lose, they cancel.
In short, the ‘Romanian option’, in the form in which the right represents it, would be that if Trzaskowski had lost presidential elections, they would have been cancelled by the Platform in a akin way as in Romania in December with elections that The first circular to surprise everyone won extremist right-wing, eccentric-esoteric candidate from nowhere Călin Georgescu.
Georgescu, who in the financial statements showed zero costs for run activities (!), had a well-funded and organized run – especially in social media –. To this day, it is not very clear who precisely paid for it, which was 1 of the reasons why the Romanian Constitutional Court overturned the elections and then blocked Georgescu's ability to compete in their rerun in May of that year.
It is not known how this analogy will work in Poland. Firstly, the importance of elections is inactive decided by the Chamber of Extraordinary Control and Public Affairs, composed exclusively of neo-judges. It's hard to imagine it's the neo-judges taking a triumph from the PiS candidate. Secondly, today's problem with the Law and Justice is not that individual wants to take the triumph distant from the party's "citizen candidate" but that this candidate is so hopeless that he can even lose the fight for the second circular with Mentzen.
Nevertheless, the PiS, its close media and opinion leaders are turning the panic around “Bukareszt in Warsaw”. In late March, erstwhile Deputy Minister-Coordinator of peculiar Services from PiS, Stanisław Żaryn, observed in a conversation with Krzysztof Ziemec, that the ABW had allegedly formed a "special squad that had been given a unusual commission to question Romanian services about what material was adequate for the constitutional court that this had annulled the presidential election in Romania".
A akin communicative was seen especially in the past week erstwhile 2 events provided a pretext for it. The first was a cyber attack on the Civic Platform. According to the right, information about the attack is an operation to enable power to nullify elections – under the pretext of electronic interference from outside the election process.
"Poland is becoming increasingly marked by the «Romanian option», where due to alleged electoral interference via social media, the first circular of presidential elections has been cancelled" – so on cyber attack informed Karnowski brothers portal inPolitics.
In a akin way to the news of the attack, erstwhile talker of the Sejm from PiS Elżbieta Witek reacted: “For any time now we have been fed [...] information by Citizens' Platform politicians [...] about the fact that possibly X should be turned off for run time, or that there will be cyber attacks [...] from the east, and given what happened in Romania or now France, I have serious concerns about what will happen in little than 2 months.”
Events from France, or conviction of Marine Le Pen for embezzlement of public funds, making it impossible for her to start in the next presidential election in France was the second, alongside the information about the cyber attack on the PO, the subject around which the communicative about the "Romanian option" in Poland in fresh days was built.
For the Polish right, what happened over the Seine is proof that the “left” European elites, threatened by the yet emerging European society, decided to screw the screw, moving to elimination under the banal pretexts of their opponents with the aid of the courts. How commented This is the Euro MP of PiS Arkadiusz Mularczyk: “Marine Le Pen excluded from the election due to the fact that she leads in polls. France – like Romania before – exports a fresh version of democracy: only for its own. Liberal order is afraid of urn, so it reaches for courts.”
Half the poorness erstwhile it comes to mobilisation
Such theories, on the 1 hand, ridicule the Law and Justice and strengthen the opinion in society that the Kaczyński Formation has increasingly lost contact with reality and, as in the period between the Smolensk catastrophe and the 2014 local elections, is sinking into an alternate planet of conspiracy theories. At the same time, this language, which undermines assurance in the electoral process in Poland, is possibly just dangerous. Especially erstwhile it's inactive being utilized by the biggest opposition organization that won the most votes in the last election. In this situation, we gotta ask ourselves, why does the Law and Justice come up with this kind of argument, what strategical thought might be behind it?
Most likely it's looking for an thought for mobilization and polarization. It is clear that the exhibition of Karol Nawrocki as a "citizen candidate" was a large mistake. Nawrocks don't kidnap the PiS electorate and it's hard to blame the electorate. The PiS is so looking for a communicative that will be able to convince right-wing voters to mobilize and vote for an exceptionally unconvincing candidate.
For this purpose, various narratives have been tried: the scare of the “cloaking of the system” by Tusk and the “terror of the bodnarists”; a conspiracy communicative about the fact that if the current coalition were to gain full power, it would be on the orders of Brussels and Berlin to destruct Polish independence; the presidential elections were yet attempted to be presented as a referendum around the current government, which actually has a social temper problem. But nothing worked, Nawrocki's polls remained weak, and Mentzen dangerously approached him.
Hence, possibly the communicative about Romania, the effort to kidnap the PiS electorate with a story: we must mobilize, due to the fact that if we do not win definitely they will invalidate our vote. I'm afraid she won't aid Nawrock either. And if that were the case, the stories about the "Romanian option" could be waved. However, you may be afraid that the Law and Justice are about something far more dangerous.
Road to Poland 6 January
Specifically, to undermine the candidate's triumph card of the current coalition, to make a belief in the PiS voters that the elections have someway been rigged, "stealed" right hand and the fresh president has no legitimacy. This communicative is constantly heated on the pages of the close media.
"It is already known that the presidential elections will not be held fairly. The only thing that remains open is what will be the scale of fraud, manipulation, bending or violation of the laws permitted by the ruling coalition. The state's apparatus has been subject for many months to put in the presidential seat of Rafał Trzaskowski and to close the strategy of smiling – a keen fighting democracy led by Donald Tusk in Poland” – wrote More recently, Dariusz Matuszak, the “Net Weekly”.
If not only the media close to the PiS, but besides its politicians, will usage a akin language before the elections, this may mean that the organization decided that it would not win the presidential election and to avoid interior settlements and to draw consequences from the disastrous decision to issue Nawrocki, it would be better to make a fuss about the election being "falsified".
Given that the PiS frequently does this – and on a much larger scale – as it accuses its opponents, it can be feared that the more the organization scares the "Roman variant", the more likely it is that, with the aid of the neo-Chamber of Control itself, it can effort to nullify the election results, especially if in the second circular Nawrocki loses a very tiny difference of vote. And then we have a political crisis that we have not known in the past of the 3rd Republic.
We would then see in Poland scenes akin to those which the States had founded 5 years ago, on January 6, 2021 Trump voters storming Capitol. In a situation where there is simply a war going on across our borders, erstwhile a geopolitical order is shaken to guarantee our safety, we cannot afford specified chaos.
The political class behaved irresponsibly without being able to communicate so as to state by law a court capable, beyond any doubt, of ruling on the validity of the elections – the blame falls mainly on president Duda. The question of whether the electorate will behave responsibly and whether it will vote in specified a way as to stifle arguments about the "Romanian option" or "falsification" in the bud, by giving the PiS candidate a decisive and undisputed defeat.
