The penultimate week of the run dominated 1 subject: Karol Nawrocki's studio and the way the president of the IPN and his spouse came into possession of it. Nawrocki apartment overshadowed for a fewer days Trump, the war between Two atomic powers India and PakistanNot to mention the 1 in Ukraine, a dramatic vote in the Bundestag on the election of the fresh chancellor and his visit to Poland and even the conclave.
All of this took distant oxygen and space from another candidates, at the same time weakening Nawrocki, possibly adequate that he could yet forget about the presidency – if he could always seriously think about it.
But who can benefit from this weakening of the PiS candidate outside Trzaskowski in the second round? Where can the electorate go, whose communicative Mr George should theoretically most move: older, poorer people, voting for the written right, but not belonging to the fanatical electorate of this party? Can the left benefit from the Nawrock crisis?
Wrong electorate
The main problem in the subject of “Nawrocki Leverage and Studio” is that the most affected by the past of the master George the electorate is the 1 who is the hardest left to gain. Especially the 1 from the sign Together, who never went beyond the image of the “young” organization – although its leaders are already mostly middle-aged – and this run has definitely profiled under the youngest anti-system electorate, completely unrefined on the political phase dominated by the PiS and the PO.
As the scandal began, together, she put her fresh Spot, showing Adrian Zandberg telling at various places in the country about the “Silicon and Steel Atomic Pole” at rallies where the average age is not more than 22 years old. specified a rally is not necessarily the place where the elder from Belchatov will go, who will consider that, given how the PiS candidate acted with Mr Jerzy, he should not be president and can not realize why the PiS, a organization who, in her opinion, cared so much about older, mediocre people, had put specified a individual on the table.
Magdalena Biejat has a little young profiled campaign. However, it is older than the seniors of the folk class disappointed Nawrocki. For this group, the barrier to a possible vote for Biejat will besides be that fresh Left candidate has in this run the image of the most advanced individual in the worldview subject – number rights, women's rights, abortions, etc.
So, although any flows to the left from the disgusted case of Navrockian PiS voters may appear, the voters most affected by this case will alternatively stay at home or choose smaller right-wing candidates, which are not missing this year.
Sławomir Mentzen was very powerfully active in the fight for a akin voter, possibly the most definitely of all candidates calling Nawrocki a fraud and putting forward a message: "Someone so dishonest cannot represent the Polish right, conservative voters: you have an alternative, me".
Left themes
At the same time, the case of the flat introduces to the public debate topics which, of course, in most democracies, "are part of the left": municipal housing, the situation of older people, mediocre people, social welfare, elder policy.
The first days of scandal left no space to talk about all these problems seriously. The politics dominated, on the 1 hand, the condemnation of the morality of Karol Nawrocki, in which politicians of the second line of KO, on the another hand, were aiming terribly chaotic, increasingly desperate and yet unsuccessful defence of Nawrocki by the Law.
Now, erstwhile I think all the volleys were fired, erstwhile Nawrocki announced that he would quit the joker, specified space appears – although erstwhile I compose these words, on Friday morning Interia revealedthat there is simply a paper in which Nawrocki undertakes to care for Mr Jerzy. Regardless of how the subject lives, the left should effort to decision the discussion about what happened in Gdańsk, from the assessment of Karol Nawrocki's individual morality to systemic issues.
Magdalena Biejat and Nowa Lewica have already done so by drafting the Safer elder Act. According to what on X portal wrote organization spokesperson Łukasz Michnik, it contains 2 main solutions. First, the ban on the sale of municipal housing with a bonus due to the fact that “you cannot fight the housing crisis erstwhile the statistical municipality is inactive selling more than it is building. The highest of absurdity is that it sells for 10% of its value and builds for 100%." Secondly, the mechanics allowing municipalities to buy apartments from seniors who have no 1 to leave them to – so that they fall prey to residential predators, flippers, etc. It is expected that Adrian Zandberg will besides talk on the subject.
Of course, municipal housing for mediocre seniors is as much socially crucial as a medium-carrying subject – at least erstwhile it is not about the morally questionable actions of 1 of the leading candidates. Especially for the electorate that the left is fighting for today, to which the communicative that Mr George has met, does not talk at the nearest, personal, life level.
This is why it is crucial that both candidates of the parliamentary left turn distant from the "Safe Senior" subject as an component housing policy And they presented her with a whole, complex vision. besides with an offer for young people and the mediate class, showing the function of municipal resource and social building in good housing policy. By the way, it is populistly possible to hit the political class dominated by the Landlords – Biejat and Zandberg have, according to property statements, not much worth surviving in, but are not "residential areas" – to which a large chance will be the debate of all candidates on TVP on Monday.
The large emotions that the affair of the studio has caused show not only the fears of the older electorate and the scale of the negative sensations that Nawrocki was able to gather around during his short political career, but besides the importance of housing. The left has already mostly dominated it, put a number of topics into public debate – with criticism of the policy of lending subsidies and the demands of social housing for rental – now is an chance to confirm this dominance in the last simple campaign.
The game is about getting ahead of Mentzen together
Of course, the president is not here to prosecute housing policy and 1 can wonder what the point is to rise this subject in these elections. However, let us remember that the left – like all candidates outside the first 3 – does not fight for the presidency in these elections, but alternatively to present itself to voters and to number their supporters. And that count, as the last polls show, may not go wrong. There is simply a chance that together the candidates of the left will outrun Mentzen.
This is crucial not only due to the fact that it would be very weak if in a run where the housing situation of a mediocre elder was the main topic, Mentzen and the Confederacy gained. The key thing is: the consequence of the left, even divided into 3 candidates – due to the fact that let us besides remember Joanna Senyszyn – will change the calculation of the participants of the second round.
The implosion of the Nawrocki run can convince the KO candidate that he does not gotta promise anything specifically to the left-wing electorate, due to the fact that he inactive has a consecutive way to triumph with specified a burdened competitor. If the left block has a twelve percent, possibly even more than Mentzen, it will change those calculations. The left-wing electorate – even divided in the first circular – will become an electoral trifle; something Trzaskowski will effort to pursue. The Nawrocks will most likely prosecute this electorate in their inept way. And all this can be translated into crucial promises by both candidates for left-wing voters.
