In 1 of the episodes World by Bad Ferdek, tired of the constant solicitation of the spouse – “and in the mediate of the case you were?” – leaves the 4th street in Wrocław and leaves Poland in search of work. It travels the country as long and wide, from the west to the east, from the north to the south, from Szczecin to Rzeszów. However, all peregrinations confirm only what Ferdek has known for a long time: “There is no work for people with my education in this country.”
On a akin journey across the country – but that in search of not work and electorate – the organization will win together after the secession of half of the parliamentary delegation, erstwhile it has left the coalition club Left, which, as all indicates, will happen in the coming days. Will the effects be akin to that of the Ferdek expedition? Will the leaders only stay at the end of the journey to say, "there is no electorate in this country for the left as my views are?"
Back to 2015
In a sense, Together he returns to his roots, until the spring of 2015. The organization was then primarily formed in the context of then PO and SLD. Keeping the distance to the Law and Justice – which after Andrzej Duda's triumph in the presidential election had just begun 8 years of government – Together it built its political image on attacks on incomprehensible realities, which were in the era of the "Balcerovich of the broken down" liberals from the PO and on the inefficient, anachronistic, devoid of idealism and programming vigor left from the SLD.
Together, it promised a fresh form of left-wing, referring to the experience of fresh European movements on the wave of the large crisis from the turn of the first and second decades of the 21st century, specified as Podemos or Siriza. It spoke to the 30-year-olds, whom the Polish economy from the mediate of the erstwhile decade importantly hampered the entrenching of the mediate class, even those who succeeded, although it was charged with an account in the form of uncertainty, fear and "a culture of the fuck". It besides promised leftistness, which takes seriously modern human rights – from social rights of the poorest, through the rights of migrants, to LGBT+ communities.
In 2015, this maneuver worked halfway. The run Together seemed to be heading for a full defeat until Adrian Zandberg's large performance in the debate of election committee leaders. The debate won by Zandberg gave support for obtaining grants and placed the organization on the political map of Poland for the following years. At the same time, it sank the coalition committee of the United Left, pushing it below the 8% threshold for the coalition. As a result, we received the Sejm of the 8th word without parliamentary representation of the Left, but with the independent majority of the Law and Justices.
Since 2015, however, it has been a long time, which makes it questionable whether today, setting up like almost 10 years ago, Together, he can repeat even as average success as then. In 2015, society was tired of 8 years of PO regulation and was able to bravely experimentation with alternatives: from populists from Kukiz ’15, by renewed, skilfully hiding Macerevich PiS, to Together. present there is no place for specified experiments, it is very possible that the next elections will be held again exclusively around the question: PiS or non-PiS?
In 2015, the United Left joined the election freshly after being compromised with the candidacy of Magdalena Cucumber in the presidential election. Today, the Left is in the government and although it clearly pays the price for governing together with the centre-right coalition, it may besides be able to supply any crucial solutions for the electorate. Together it will no longer have the effect of freshness. The organization has never ruled, but there is simply a second word in the Sejm and has become a tame component of the Polish political landscape. On the way to the Sejm coalition and through agreements with New Left Together it besides lost not only part of the electorate, but besides an act that helped to make the consequence in 2015.
Finally, 1 can wonder if the young, predeclared electorate of 2015 has not enriched and stabilized socially adequate over the past decade that the message Together does not necessarily should be convincing to him now.
Where does that reserve come from?
Of course, together it is not about getting back those 3.5 percent votes, but about fighting for a fresh electorate. In a message released after the split, the organization wrote on its authoritative social media profiles.
"Together, it is simply a strategical reserve of Polish democracy. We will not let the only critical voice towards the Tusk government to be the voice of the far right. It is simply a simple way to get the Law and the Confederate after the next elections. The Tusk government fails by its antisocial actions to further groups of voters. Poland needs a democratic opposition, defending the common good, social justice and human rights."
This message clearly outlines the party's strategy for times outside the left-wing coalition. It is to enter into the function of a principled, decisively attacking government from the left opposition. Fighting to attract an electorate disappointed on the 1 hand by the governments of the 15.10. coalition, and on the another hand by the Law and Justice, which alternatively of playing the function of a substantive opposition, which points to a frequently disappointing policy of the government, deals with selling conspiracy narratives about “Bodnarists” torturing priests, in order to pacify opposition and open the way to the liquidation of Polish statehood by amending European treaties.
We are going our way so that in the next election the electorate disappointed in the PO does not gotta vote for radicals from the PiS or the Confederacy and can choose a democratic alternate to the government of “smiling Poland” – says Together. It is us, today's party, who say that we are “a reserve of Polish democracy” that will save Poland from the utmost right from the defeat of this government.
The question is, where does Together intend to get an electorate that would fill this retention tank of Polish democracy? We can see that the PiS electorate is inactive at the party. And it's not just the fanatic 1 that the left can never get, but even the more pragmatic-cinnic one. As shown by from Sadura and Sierakowski report, this electorate is convinced that the government did not take distant 800 plus or another benefits from it mainly due to the fact that it fears strong PiS. Surely, then, by akin calculations, he will not shift his votes to the weak Together.
Coalition 15.10. is simply a coalition dominated by the centre-right, the left was rather far from its centre – although a large part of KO voters are identified as left-wing today. In the meantime, it always stood decisively to the left even from where the average electoral left was found. From specified a position it will be hard – without a complete reconstruction of the party's image and the way it communicates with voters – to get disappointed coalition voters 15.10. I fear that the Confederacy's populism may be more effective in this.
Together it will most likely want to re-mobilise voters whose left has lost in the last year due to their demobilisation and withdrawal from politics. These voters – more frequently electorally – claim that they failed to decision forward with issues specified as reproductive rights, but besides gotta leaders Together. They can besides simply accept that there is no point in mobilising around a organization with only a ellipse of 5 Members in the Sejm - if it is in it Paulina Matysiak, which is besides not clear – due to the fact that specified a weak representation of these issues will not move.
Together, in the primary opposition to the government that their erstwhile coalitions co-create, it has the chance to cut off any leftist voices, even more weakening it in the government. The weaker the Left is polled, the little will she have the power to convince in the coalition, and the little she will be able to gain in it, the more delicate she will be to the attacks Together. Thus, a vicious ellipse can easy be formed, the consequence of which will be specified weakening of the coalition Left, that in the next election it will be sentenced to a joint start with KO. At the same time weakening the erstwhile coalition, Together, it doesn't gotta cut up space for itself even for 3 percent grants.
Eternal Student Politics
Also due to the fact that even if there was actually an electorate in Poland, which Together, by positioning itself in the way outlined above, could theoretically gain, it is improbable that it will be possible to get this organization in its present form. About Together it is frequently said that he behaves not like a political organization, but as a think tank, a discussion club, a publicist-review group. I would have utilized a small different comparison: Together is simply a organization that is in the ranks of student politics and could never get out of them. Especially the part of it that's about to leave the Left club.
When writing about student politics, I do not mean what she looked like most in Poland – that is, youth activists, who have been carrying a briefcase from advanced school after a patron and by the student community going to local and local parties of the institution – but on campuses in the western world. Student politics there is more extremist and idealistic than this "adult" one, he likes in large emotions and gestures, he does not appreciate compromises and nuances, more than uncovering concrete solutions he appreciates carrying banners and witnessing.
Young Socialists, an organization from which the majority of the remaining parliamentary representations came from. For the sake of clarity, it should be added that I acted in it. And erstwhile I read the statements about Together as “a reserve of Polish democracy”, I remember the climates of the Young Socialists.
However, the plan that Together outlines in his message would require a completely non-campusist leftist, only a popular-populist, able to establish contact with the folk class as it is in Poland. 1 can be profoundly skeptical if specified a left can build a organization that has an issue with the eternal “studentity” of its policy.
