On Sunday I wrote about the triumph of the ruling organization in the Saturday parliamentary elections in Georgia. Unfortunately, the consequence already produces a dynamic threatening another destabilisation in a delicate region. The election resulted in the government's “Georgian Dream” vote of 54%, as reported by the Central Election Commission. This means that the governing organization of Georgia from 2012 will get a parliamentary majority of 89 out of 150 mandates, although not a constitutional majority, for which it claimed aspiration.
Representatives of all opposition forces who collected a number of parliamentary mandates – ‘Coalition for Change’, ‘United-National Movement’, ‘Strong Georgia’ and ‘Gacharia for Georgia’. This alternatively prykat in political and biographical terms is actually a combination of only 2 distinct features – the desire to overthrow the existing power and the powerfully declared pro-Western attitude, erstwhile the "Georgian Dreams" for economic, safety and cultural reasons have chosen a multi-vector abroad policy in fresh years.
That was to be expected. The current opposition, especially the post-Saakashvilovska, has already tried to influence the political process on the street level, which we witnessed in the spring, erstwhile it managed to mobilise crucial numbers of supporters, especially the youth of Tbilisi, to violent protests against the transparency of abroad influences passed in May. However, the fresh dynamics was given by the attitude of president Salome Zurabishvili, who had already tried to block the transparency of abroad influences. Without recognizing the results given by the election committee, the president gave the esatz legitimacy with possible revolutionary actions coming out of the country and from the outside. Let us add that Zurabiszivli ends his word in about 40 days and possibly leaving the function of neutral head of state is simply a symptom of her seeking a fresh place on the Georgian political scene.
You didn't gotta wait long for the border. The head of U.S. diplomacy spoke condemning "any violations of global standards" and joining "international and local observers' appeals to carry out a full investigation into all election-related violations". At the same time, he accused the Georgian authorities of "abusing public funds by the ruling party, buying votes and intimidating voters, which contributed to unequal playing conditions and undermined the assurance of the public and global community to the anticipation of a fair outcome". At the same time, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken wrote on platform X that “Georgian political leaders” must respect the regulation of law, address “weakness” in the electoral process and lead the country towards a “euroatlantic future”. These statements are practically equivalent to the designation of elections. Ivanavili can relax.
A group of European parliamentarians and parliamentarians from Ukraine and Canada issued a noisy manifesto in which they stated that "the elections were neither free nor fair" and advocated, "The European Union cannot recognise their outcome". These parliamentarians did not even hide that they were standing on 1 side of a Georgian political dispute by expressing "solidarity with many dedicated Europeans in Georgia". "We are convinced that Georgia deserves to be in the heart of a united Europe," politicians wrote... as if they had forgotten that the majority of Georgian society is decisive here. It is characteristic that Western politicians did not dare to compose straight about alleged forgery. They only wrote about "unfair influence" (what does it mean?), "terror" and "threats" towards opposition supporters. To support their argument, the authors of this message resorted to specified a general shift as “a pre-election political climate incompatible with European standards of fairness”. It is hard to take specified allegations seriously, especially if they are to be the basis for not recognising parliamentary elections in a country, and especially for imposing sanctions on its officials, as the authors wish. This message was signed by 2 Polish politicians – Bogdan Klich from the Civic Coalition and Radosław Fogiel from Law and Justice. Significantly, the political forces that conflicted in the country's demonstration after this were in line with the main political stream. Only a small bit amazing is the fact that the Law and Justice Office supports specified political, legal and shortly economical pressures on Georgia, which were applied by Eurocrats to Poland for their rule, contributed to these ending governments.
The Ministry of abroad Affairs of the Republic of Poland considered that "The many reports confirming the violations of electoral procedures and the unprecedented scale of administrative resources active by the ruling organization undermine the rule of freedom and equality of the electoral process and the result of the elections itself" and suggested that Georgia should "return to the way of reforms" due to the fact that "Gruzini deserve to prosecute their goals and dreams – to guarantee their European and Euroatlantic country's future". The head of the ministry Radosław Sikorski considered it appropriate to tighten his tone, repeating that president Zrabiszvili considered the election to be falsified.
What do the observers for the Organisation for safety and Cooperation in Europe, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe and the NATO Parliamentary Assembly say? In their first report, they criticised the Georgian authorities for "social polarisation" (as if they were liable for it), "speak of hatred", "cases of buying votes", "a common atmosphere of pressure", "no sex equality ... as a consequence of the abolition of sexual quotas". At the same time, they acknowledged that "the election day was mostly well organized in procedural and orderly terms, but it was a tense atmosphere" and admitted that "the Georgian media scene is varied", although they reported cases of "declarations of vote secrecy" did not compose straight about false results.
For my part, I can say that all the socio-political problems mentioned in the above statements can be addressed to many Western countries, with the United States at the forefront, and are linked to a broader trend in the social culture crisis and the mechanisms of liberal democracy. An effort to attribute support to the “Georgian Dream” by electoral fraud proves misunderstandings or misunderstandings of the basis of its popularity, which can be brought to 3 levels:
– geopolitical – many Georgians truly do not want to take sides in the large geopolitical rivalry of the West and Russia, fearing to drag into it, war. The subject was exploited with large success by the "Georgian Dream" electoral staff. While sitting in warm seats in Poland it may seem unexpected, but many Georgians negatively measure the gambling play of Micheil Saakashvili, who in 2008 undertook an armed effort to regain control of South Ossetia, and received only the consequence of strengthening the ties with Russia of this unrecognized republic, as did Abkhazia, victims and material demolition in areas controlled by Tbilisi;
– economical – which I already wrote about yesterday. The share of the EU and the Commonwealth of Independent States in Georgia's imports was akin in 2023 (24% and 21% respectively). In contrast, the CIS is for Georgians the main marketplace for almost 66% of their exports. In addition, however, it is from Russia that strategical imports are made – inexpensive food, especially crucial for a mountainous and inactive unaffluent country. However, the voices of Georgian Dreams are besides a designation by many citizens of the unquestionable economical success that occurred during his twelve-year rule. Georgia's GDP increased from $16.8 to $30.5 billion during this period. The average household income has more than doubled;
– cultural – as I besides wrote – Georgians, especially the province, are conservative people. The church inactive has authority in society. An effort to organize a LGBT parade in Tbilisi in July 2021 led to serious riots. In the Caucasian country, they are well aware of the force in the West to undermine conventional socio-cultural standards and the "Georgian Dream" has hit that awareness, with a September package of government on household values and the protection of minors, which introduced serious restrictions in promoting LGBT agendas in space and public debate.
In conclusion, I see no reason why Poland should interfere in the political process in Georgia. It's a sovereign state. And interference in his affairs could be, contrary to what politicians and Western mainstream media already say, going against the tide of the views and attitudes of the majority of the Georgian people, whose laws they so invoke. The attempts at specified pressures will either antagonize the Caucasian state even more or push them into the abyss of destabilization. The opposition, in its radicalism, seems to aim to resolve the political conflict on the street. Western support can turn the situation into another Georgian Majdan. Now let us think about the consequences for the stableness and regional safety of all Central east Europe that the first Majdan – Ukrainian had.
Krystian Kamiński
Text for fb Krystian Kamiński
