With the support of urban movements, headed by the movement City is Ours, Left is exhibiting in this year's local elections Magdalena Biejat As a candidate for president of the capital. The Vice-Marszałkinia of the legislature awaits a hard fight, despite the fact that theoretically Warsaw seems a friendly ground for the left. In last year's elections to the Sejm, the left reached a second (after the Sosnowiec district) consequence in the country, with 13.45 percent support, allowing the introduction of 3 Members. Biejat herself was elected as a candidate of the legislature Pact to the advanced Chamber of the Polish Parliament from a territory covering the Warsaw districts of Bemowo, Ochota, Ursus and Italy.
Biejat is an optimal candidate for the left. And it's not just that she's a female – although this time the left could not bet on a female – nor that in 2019 she first got into the Sejm as a candidate associated with urban-activist environments. The key thing is: Biejat seems to have a predisposition to accomplish the left's most crucial goal in the presidential election in Warsaw. It is not the Warsaw City Hall – due to the fact that it is simply a task beyond the scope of this formation – but to show that it can be distinguished from KO and survive, without falling with support to the level that sits it outside the political game.
W Warsaw the left can show up
At the same time, elections in Warsaw may be the only ones in which the left will be able to present itself politically. In elections to the Seymites he competes alone solely by coercion. The leaders may have made a mistake, so openly declaring their willingness to start with the KO – although the decision to negociate the joint start made the most sense. erstwhile Donald Tusk announced at a press conference that his organization was recording a stand-alone committee, the left found herself in the position of a bridegroom, left at the last minute at the altar.
Seismic elections with a advanced real electoral threshold will be very hard for the left. At best, he will introduce a twelve provincial councillors, but it is hard to say how many seismics will truly request KO and the 3rd Road to build the ruling majority. And let us not delude ourselves: where these 2 by no means left forces will be able to regulation without the left, they will not take her on the government deck. After these elections, fresh Left leaders will not be able to attend a press conference and say with satisfaction: "On October 15, the left returned to the governments in Warsaw, and now it returns to local Poland".
In no of the another 10 largest cities – and races in the remaining ones seldom give emergence to nationwide political emotions – the left will most likely not have clear candidates. In Łódź and Warsaw, she supported those from PO. Furthermore, in order to draw attention to a good consequence in a city another than Warsaw and Krakow, the left would gotta win in it.
The Biejat run in Warsaw may so be the only chance this year to show in a race observed across Poland that the left is an crucial force, capable of fighting against its coalition for voters and gaining a respectable result.
Present an alternative, do not alienate normals
From the point of view of this main task Biejat is simply a good candidate, due to the fact that she seems to be able to present an alternative, or at least a left-wing-activist correction, to the thought for the city of Rafał Trzaskowski – and to do so in a way that will not offend normals with a dogmatic approach or an excessively "subcultural" left-wing message.
Biejat is simply a Vice Marshal in the Senate, but as a co-leader of the organization Together, which is most likely no more than part of the coalition on October 15, will have quite a few freedom in formulating criticism of what Rafał Trzaskowski has presented in the last 4 years.
Activist experience and facilities in the form of urban movements should at least theoretically let campaigns Biejat formulate your own thought for the capital. More pro-social, sustainable, ecological and non-binding than the current one. Focused on correcting well-functioning but point-consuming improvements in areas – specified as transport, or topics that the present town hall is dealing with importantly less, like housing issues.
I can imagine that any part of the mostly progressive electorate that would like to show in the first circular a yellow card to Trzaskowski would be able to vote for Biejat, treating it as a safe choice. On the another hand, the fewer identity electorates of the left, mostly voters of the Together, identified by opposition to the ‘libks’, will have no problem with the support of Biejat. The Vice-Marszalkini of the legislature may not seem like a natural candidate to fight for the voices of the disappointed folk electorate of the PiS, but it is besides unknown how it will behave erstwhile the PiS no longer rules and can not offer him anything.
What's the left?
What will Biejat be satisfactory for the left? The absolute summit seems to be to jump the PiS candidate Tobias Bocheński, possibly even to enter the second round. However, the probability of specified a script is not great, especially if Poland 2050 and the urban movements associated with it put forward a good candidate for president of the capital.
The large consequence of Biejat would rise its national visibility and most likely liberated the discussion whether it should not be in the presidential election next year as a typical of the left-wing coalition – but for now it is simply a very distant perspective.
The real goal that the Vice-Marszalkini run should set itself is simply a two-digit consequence and introducing its list to the city council. In an ideal, again improbable scenario, adequate so that without the club of the councillors of the left Trzaskowski no majority.
The consequence of the Biejat and the left-wing list clearly lower than that achieved by the left-wing list in the elections to the Sejm will should be considered a failure. If we add mediocre results to this in the Sejm and in the European elections that await us in June, it will most likely be essential to reflect on whether the left is making good usage of its participation in the government to build up support and whether it has developed an optimal expression for cooperation and for articulate differences towards stronger coalitions.
Why Warsaw Can Be Difficult
Election analyst Daniel Pers in fresh conversation With Onet, he warned the left against raising besides much expectations of his sympathizers about the result of local elections. In politics it is more beneficial to accomplish a consequence exceeding expectations than to awaken them and not to deliver them – specified a disaster continues even further, as the Confederation is convinced today.
In this regard, the capital may be a hard area for the left. It had a second consequence in the country, and the fact that PiS, as it all points out, in the race for the presidency of the capital will not number at all, gives Magdalena Biejat space to fight for a progressive electorate. due to the fact that in Warsaw he does not gotta vote for the strongest candidate of the democratic camp to “save the capital from the Law and Justice”. This mechanics worked mostly in 2018 and gave the triumph to Trzaskowski in the first round, sinking the candidacy of Jan Spiewak. Now, however, erstwhile PiS does not regulation and Bocheński is seen as a candidate without a chance, he does not have to.
On the another hand, the progressive electorate and frequently defining itself as left-wing, for which the left might possibly fight, frequently votes for the Platform and its candidate in Warsaw. It can be expected that for the part of voters that are defined as left but not necessarily voting for the left, Trzaskowski will be more attractive than the list with Tusk at the head. The president of Warsaw is besides a proven quality, it is hard to recognise that in 4 years something will happen that would show that he is unfit to serve.
Much depends on how much more candidates and what run thought Biejat and her staff will find. But they surely have something to fight for.
