The convention at which the PiS candidate for president was presented – presented as a "citizen candidate", but no 1 will talk about him that way, due to the fact that there are no grounds for it either – to say most delicately: she did not kidnap. And this is actually euphemism, due to the fact that it should be said more clearly: it was poor. From the luminaire beginning – in the modern media era it seemed as if it had been moved from the end of the last century – through a tranquillizing, God-fathered speech by prof. Andrzej Nowak, a digresive, energyless speech by Mr Kaczyński, and ending with a failed speech by the candidate himself, Dr. Karol Nawrocki, read from a card, completely lacking spontaneousity and making it seem as if it were written by a mediocre ghostwriter. rather frankly, I must say I was surprised. It's known that this kind of event is going to get better, worse, but it's going to get distant from the mean definitely negative.
However, this is the very beginning, and although the first impression is important, it will only be another six months to fill out the content of Mr Nawrock's candidacy. Nothing is settled yet.
On this occasion, however, we request to look at any of the emerging erroneous analogys and ways of seeing situations that always appear under specified circumstances.
First – can the launch of the wider unknown Dr Nawrocki be compared to the start of Mr Andrzej Duda 9 years ago? The PiS would like to enter the same river twice, due to the fact that not only the presentation of the candidate took place in the same period of the year (although on 11 November 2014, president Kaczyński pointed out that he presented the candidate before the decision of the political council of the organization in this case), but besides in the same place – the Kraków hall “Sokola”. but the more the reality spells, the little it usually wants to surrender to specified spells.
Mr Andrzej Duda was indeed not known to a wider audience and was confused in the first period rather frequently with Mr Piotr Duda, president of "Solidarity" (then and still). During the campaign, the candidate built himself a large designation – besides thanks to the titanium work and exhausting campaign. It could be akin now.
However, circumstances are different. These elections were held at the very end of the regulation of the Civic Platform, erstwhile the Prime Minister was the inept and mocking Mrs Ewa Kopacz and after 1 word of weak presidency of Mr Bronisław Komorowski. These will take place after just a year and a half of the current coalition's regulation – it will not even be half a metre. It is possible to discuss how much this time can be felt by any voters. surely the force on citizens with conservative views is greater than during Mr Tusk's first rule. But does it balance 2 full 2015 terms? I uncertainty it. And just finished 2 terms – but the United Right. For many people, it is inactive an crucial mention point, not a affirmative one.
The fight for the presidency now will actually be a fight for the Law and Justice for a 3rd five-year word in this position, and so it cannot be portrayed as a fight for change as it was 10 years ago. In a natural way, many voters will be asked how the future “citizen” of the president and his president could depend on the PiS. The way the convention was organised did not encourage voters to believe that this dependence would be limited. Although the candidate has been presented as a "citizen", no "citizen" component has been shown – due to the fact that it is hard to recognise specified a "citizen" committee, composed of persons unambiguously associated with support for the Law and Justice, specified as Mr Sławomir Cenckiewicz or Bronisław Wildstein. The only politician to execute was Mr. Kaczyński. An effort to present Mr Nawrocki as a "citizen" candidate alternatively than a organization candidate – unlike Mr Trzaskowski – may even prove counterproductive, as voters may consider that they are being simply deceived.
Of course, it is besides actual that the vote in May (relatively June) 2025 will, to any extent, be a review of the current power and a plebiscite on the surrender of its full tools. This, in turn, will work in favour of Mr. Trzaskovsky's counter-candidate.
In 2014, erstwhile Mr Andrzej Duda was presented as a presidential candidate, many people – including myself – were convinced that he would lose the election. Today, these predictions are eager to draw out (this is the Polish specificity – treating all erroneous forecast as proof of the full mistake of the forecaster in all case), forgetting that Mr.Duda's win did not believe in almost the first circular of the competition himself president Kaczyński. present I would not say – surely not at this phase – that Dr. Nawrocki has no chance. But it is besides worth remembering that Mr Komorowski's run turned out to be dramatically inept, and then the president was simply lazy, which contrasted with the energy of the young PiS candidate. We're in a different place now, and the civilian Coalition is at this point a organization on an ascending, non-departing, like it was then. And even if Mr Trzaskowski is not known for his exceptional industriousness, it is hard to put him on 1 level with the grumpy Mr Bronisław Komorowski. Let us besides remember that Mr Komorowski in 2015 was 63 years old, while Mr Trzaskowski next year in January will be 10 years younger.
The second crucial thing: organization fans – on each side – tend to perceive reality in terms of wishful thinking. Hence the repeated phrase that "a year and a half of the current coalition counts as 8 years of PO in 2015". Or the claim that the God-fathered message you presented to Dr. Nawrocki at the time of the convention would be, to any extent, appealing to the centre electorate. If we want to at least effort to make a real assessment of the chances in next year's elections, we must be able to stand next to our views and look at the candidates through the eyes of the summertime voter, the hesitant, the small involved. Although, yes, it can be difficult.
Luke Warches
