Łukasz Warzecha: Przemysław Czarnek as a poser

Mr. Przemysław Czarnek's nomination as a PiS candidate for Prime Minister must be analysed on 3 levels. The nomination, you gotta say right away, more symbolic than in any binding way. After all, appointing anyone as Prime Minister present is just a performance. The result of the parliamentary elections is highly uncertain, and the Law and Justice has long been no longer on the right side of the hegemon and cannot simply appoint itself the head of government, as the probability of his own win is minimal.

The first is the level of intraparty gameplay and here the appointment of Mr. Czarnek can aid to master chaos – but only for a short time. Almost definitely not by the election. The embalming by Mr Kaczyński and Mr Mausz Morawiecki sitting in the front row will not help. The second is besides ambitious to work permanently for individual else. If he thinks that his ambitions can safely and with a good chance of success realize beyond the Law and Justice – he will. Mr Czarnek's nomination, even if he is to act only as a "slasher", will strengthen his position in the Law and Justice (if he can make good usage of it, but it is simply a very intelligent politician, so it will be so), and this in turn means that the rivalry in the organization will scope a fresh level. Until any point you can effort to glue the structures and pacify the bulldogs fighting under the carpet by measuring them all a kick to momentum, but above a certain level of conflict and tension it stops working or besides works very soon.

The second level is the recovery of voters who left the Law and Justice. Those in turn can be divided into 2 groups: those who have been discouraged, at least for the time being, from elections, and those who have found themselves a fresh one, in their opinion a better offer in the form of the Confederation of Freedom and independency or the Confederation of the Polish Crown. In this first group, Mr. Czarnek's nomination may make any impression and encourage any people to back up the Law and Justice. For they were discouraged, but found no another representation. And that means that they inactive have the first choice of the PiS. These will read the nomination as proof that there may be an thought of each other, and a new, younger, eloquent leader has besides appeared. This group may be willing to give the PiS another chance, due to the fact that there is no alternate anyway. However, in the second group, more crucial and larger, the effectiveness will be negligible.

Those who transferred their support to 1 of the Confederates usually had very circumstantial reservations to the Law and Justice, based on their impressions of 8 years of their rule. This may be against covid politics, politics towards Ukraine, the treatment of entrepreneurs, fiscal policies or ubiquitous centralism, paternalism and statism. These individuals could return to the Law and Justice Office if there was a hard and clear premise that Mr. Kaczyński's organization had a given mistake or mistake considered specified a mistake at all, had marginalised those liable for them and had a clear, concrete proposal on how to correct them. Nothing like that happens.

In his speech Mr Jarosław Kaczyński made it clear that the governments of the Law and Justice were absolutely wonderful. Not only that, he warned that if anyone inside the Law and Justice tried to criticize those 8 years, they would be “rejected”. Read: it will not be on the electoral lists. Mr Czarnek, who, in his speech, did not give even the most symbolic approach to the questionable part of the balance of the regulation of the Law and Justice.

If a deserter to the Confederate camp listened to the “candidacy for Prime Minister”, he heard, for example, that Brussels needs to be informed that Poland is withdrawing from the ETS. This declaration may make specified an electorate very happy, but immediately afterwards the question will arise: why should I believe that the Law and Justice organization will truly do so if it has not done so for 8 years of government and even the Prime Minister of this organization has signed successive stages of tightening of climate targets?

He may besides have heard that Mr Czarnek is announcing further assistance to Ukraine, as long as this 1 “shows respect”. specified a memorable voter will remember what the politicians of the Law and Justice organization called for at least a year and a half a "Russian onus" to anyone who dared to question the utmost proukarian politics, and if he has a memory beyond average for a average voter – he will besides remember that ABW closed access to unlawful media, and to Mr Zelensk, who was fettered in Poland as a savior of humanity, no 1 always placed any conditions. However, even specified a voter knows that almost the full delegation of the Law and Justice to the European Parliament has just voted twice for the transfer Ukraine EUR 90 billion and attracting another common EU debt for this purpose.

Besides, how can 1 even consider that the voter of Mr Braun, and before that, the PiS, would return to the another party, since the newly-baked Prime Minister's candidate has already stated that with Mr Braun it is never? And it is not even the biggest problem with the message itself – that is, it would not be if it were the origin of Mr Czarnek's sovereign reflection. But this voter knows that it is simply a repetition of Mr. Kaczyński's message, announced after gathering with his Excellency Tom Rose, Ambassador of the United States. So it is simply a reflection of what this elector hates organically: submission to external force.

Finally, level three: is Mr Czarnek objectively a "prime candidate" a sign of any fresh quality? Well, there is absolutely nothing to point at – he's just a fake. possibly its main function in the President's head is not to recover the lost voters at all, but to prevent further degeneration and the disintegration of the group, so it is simply a decision more interior than external logic. Is there any rational reason to believe that any of the reasons why the Law and Justices lost power in 2023 has ceased? And surely not Mr. Przemysław Czarnek.

Luke Warches

Przemysław Czarnek. beginning candidate or breakthrough?