Jacek Bartosiak, considered a geopoliticist author, claims that we are in a “system war” and that has been since 2018. So we have been at war for 7 years now, which, as Mr. Bartosiak explains, is simply planet War III. As the conventional planet war, we can say, differs powerfully from what we are experiencing today, Bartosiak modifies his image and elsewhere compares his imagination of war to Napoleonic times, which meant 15 years of armed clashes, but interrupted by periods of short peace or ceasefire. But this besides does not correspond to the present state, as in the days of the Napoleonic battles it included a large part of Europe, from Portugal to Moscow, and now the fights are taking place on the border between Russia and Ukraine and no measurement of momentum in times Napoleon can't compare that.
The solution to his dilemma seems to be to reject this alignment of the current situation to any general planet war, even as in Napoleon's day. Jacek Bartosiak besides says that the Polish army should be ready to take over Królewiec and Kaliningrad territory in the event of signs of Russian war preparations for the attack. This would be the case where a state with no atomic weapons is engaged in the military business of a state of a state with 1 of the largest atomic weapons resources. If Mr. Bartosiak is able to give an example of specified an event, which has happened anywhere since the atomic weapon appeared, I would be happy to perceive and consider that his thought of occupying the King may make sense, but for now, I don't think anything like this has happened yet, and I would not like Poles to prove that this, despite everything, is possible. erstwhile Napoleon cried out, “Leave it to the Poles. For them there is nothing impossible”, and Poles were throwing themselves into a mad charge, but present I think we have passed it, and I uncertainty that Mr Bartosiak could inspire specified enthusiasm in individual as Napoleon Bonaparte. And there is simply a tiny but crucial fact: there was no atomic weapon in Napoleon's day.
So what are we dealing with now? In my opinion, the current situation can be compared to what happened in Europe over 140 years ago. Then Russia began a war with Turkey in 1877, in which it wanted territorial benefits and influences in the Balkans, and even further, with the possible capture of Constantinople inclusive. This led, in the same way as today, to mobilise Western powers to aid Turkey, which avoided a large failure as a consequence of their intervention, as expressed by the Berlin legislature of 1878, where Russia was deprived of a crucial part of its conquests. As we know, these events did not lead to a planet war at the time, and 1 inactive had to wait 36 years, although the tension which then appeared in Europe could no longer be completely extinguished and escalated all the time, leading to the emergence of alliances of countries that yet broke out in the planet war.
It is hard not to announcement that the general situation at the time was very akin to today's situation, and the attitude of German Chancellor Bismarck, who was able to convince the Russian side that he was able to fulfil in this conflict the function of a "fair mediator" who wanted to lead to a transaction, was then decided. That's what he said to the Reichstag in February 1878, demanding that the parties to the dispute should scope a preliminary agreement first. At the Berlin Congress, which ruled the full case, Bismarck clearly distanced himself from taking a stand on any side, saying about Russia: "We will never take on the work of sacrificing a safe, centuries-tested relationship with a large, powerful neighbouring nation for the thrill of acting as a justice in Europe." Today, as Germany is far more active in conflict than then, specified a function as a mediator to encourage the parties to make peace is trying to play president Donald Trump. Will he succeed? This is possible, although the situation seems even more hard than almost 150 years ago. The alternate is the planet War, and then there was this threat and there were plans to drag Poles into the war with Russia and provoke an uprising against Russia. These plans were to be thwarted, according to some, especially Grzegorz Braun, by the Marian apparitions in Gietrzwald in 1877, which, through the vast masses of pilgrims, was to make a large overload of the only railway line that could service to concentrate the Prussian army in the east. It is so uncertain whether Bismarck has indeed always had an impartial approach to the conflict in the Balkans or whether he simply had no another choice at the time. This issue deserves to be dealt with separately.
Today, too, the question of the possible participation of Polish soldiers in activities in Ukraine is current and the stubbornness of Polish politicians not to get active in this raises irritation among many leaders of Western countries, most likely the most of France and Germany. Although Germany, erstwhile again, announced that they would not send any of their soldiers to Ukraine, and in this respect they are completely repeating Bismarck's policy, which, even before the outbreak of the war in 1877, had announced to the Reichstag that, in the conflict in the Balkans, it did not see “any interest for Germany [...], which would be worth even [...] the healthy bones of 1 Pomeranian musketere”. present Chancellor Merz has a very akin approach, with specified a difference that then these "musketeers" possessed Germany, and present it is alternatively not there, and beyond war rhetoric it is very much lacking.
It can be concluded that it is precisely due to the deficiency of armed forces prepared to operate that there will be no greater war, and the immediate future, like 140 years earlier, will be to form various alliances that can eventually, in 20-30 years, wipe themselves in the large war. However, their composition and nature are not yet established and unexpected changes may happen here. This was besides the case before the First planet War, erstwhile Italy always had an alliance (Third Covenant) with Germany and Austro-Hungary, and erstwhile it went through what it went into the war on the another side. Likewise, it may be now and should not be besides afraid about who is gathering with China's leader and who is with the president of the United States. The crucial thing is that neither side can be certain of military success today. Russia, which displayed large assertiveness after military success in Syria in 2015-2017 and was certain of a fast win in Ukraine, collided there with the nightmare of the position war and pays for all metre of advancement with large losses. specified a war does not encourage others to engage in activities that may besides be in trenches, and much indicates that in the current state of improvement of combat measures, it will be normal. Before the First planet War, it was similar, but then stupid politicians did not see it, although at the time there were not adequate authors pointing to it, specified as the Warsaw resident, the superb Jan G. Bloch, who presented in the book “The Future War”. So to return to the title question, and given the circumstances and the large similarity of today's situation to that of more than 140 years ago, 1 can foretell that we are not and will not be in any planet war for long.
Stanisław Lewicki
