This year's conference of the planet economical Forum in Davos was even more exhausting than usual, and it caused even more confusion. Politicians love to quote the message that "a good crisis should not be wasted", but even they looked overwhelmed by the agenda of events that sought to reflect the full dimension of the current "multi-crisisIt’s okay. ”
It is not just that individual problems become more hard to solve erstwhile they happen simultaneously. The point is that today's crises are driving each another and fighting each another for attention.
Against the background of increasing geopolitical tensions and the escalation of conflict in the mediate East Huti attacks trading ships in the Red Sea have become a origin of concern for the global economy. Worse still, drought in Central America – a byproduct of cyclical weather patterns and the long-term effects of climate change – is limiting the transport of goods by Panama Canal.
The humanitarian crisis caused by the war in the Gaza Strip is deteriorating overnight and the death toll on the Palestinian side has exceeded 30,000. During the panel in Davos, American officials and European and arabian diplomats presented their visions of ending the war through regional integration and implementation a two-state solution.
During the period weakening support for the US and Europe for the defending Ukraine, redirecting all attention to the mediate East made president Zelenski desperate to put his country back on the political map. Right before the conference, Zelenski arranged a gathering with his national safety advisers, at which he gave a fiery speech. After him, Ukrainian officials were sent to Davos to participate in talks on various subjects, from artificial intelligence to planet trade, and always find a way to link them to the war in Ukraine.
At the end of the day, we can talk about unanimity on how to deal with these 2 crises. As regards the Gaza Strip, there are 5 key elements: the release of the remaining Israeli hostages; actions to normalise regional relations between Israel and its arabian neighbours; a realistic course for a two-state solution; regional efforts to revive the Palestinian Authority; and the suspension of the open conflict with Lebanon.
As for Ukraine, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in an interview with writer Thomas Friedman statedthat it must keep a sober view of EU and NATO membership. Blinken besides believes, however, that the West is liable for providing Ukraine with a solid military, economical and democratic position. All of this sounds reasonable, but the biggest challenge for Biden's administration will be to reconcile these aspirations with political reality, especially in the election year in which a advanced stake is played. Although Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Russian president Vladimir Putin are determined to stay in power as long as possible, next year Blinken may already be a private person.
The thought of the audience gathered in Davos besides addressed the crisis of American democracy. Although Donald Trump was not physically present, his ghost was floating over the conference. Many wondered if the Biden administration had adequate political capital to implement the solutions proposed by Blinken and US National safety Advisor Jake’s Sullivan. And even if it works, what happens to them if the presidential election Trump wins?
Of all the crises competing for attention, however, artificial intelligence has definitely won. All major names in the manufacture came to Davos, including Sam Altman from OpenAI, Satya Nadella from Microsoft, erstwhile Google board president Eric Schmidt and co-founder DeepMind Mustafa Suleyman. In debating opportunities and threats, all present agreed that AI was a completely new, truly unprecedented challenge.
There was no deficiency of serious discussion on the regulation of artificial intelligence, the appropriate function of the state and what further technological advancement can be expected. The most striking was the deficiency of agreement on how crucial AI would be in the future. On the 1 hand, we have Suleyman and another supporters of artificial intelligence who believe that it will prove to be as groundbreaking as fire or electricity. On the another hand, historian Niall Ferguson suggested that its weight is overestimatedas was the case with cryptocurrency.
Global crises are seeking our attention. fresh unexpected variables interact with each another in unexpected ways, and the feeling of overload makes uncovering solutions difficult. The fact that the year 2024 will be the year of elections for half the planet – the right to vote 4 billion people in more than 70 jurisdictions – only increases this uncertainty.
No wonder people are anxious. New study carried out by my organization, the European abroad Affairs Council, shows that the 5 major crises of the last 15 years (the global recession after 2008, the 2015 migration crisis, COVID-19, the war in Ukraine and climate change) divided Europeans into "crisis tribes". These tribes have created new, frequently fighting political identities.
We frequently complain that politicians, diplomats and business leaders who gather in Davos all year are separated from reality. However, in today's economy, attention is no little confused than those to represent.
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Mark Leonard manager of the European abroad Affairs Council and author of the book Age of non-peace. Interdependence as a origin of conflict (tow. Andrzej Wojtasik, Political Criticism 2022).
Copyright: task Syndicate, 2024. www.project-syncicate.org. She translated Anna Opara from English.
