Donald Trump He broke Europe so epicly that EU leaders should feel humiliated. The head of the European Commission announced in Scotland the success of the EU trade agreement with the US. And although the duties imposed on the EU on 27 July are lower than those announced on the alleged Freedom Day, it was clear that the plates shown at the time in front of the White home were simply a negotiation play. Clearly, the European Commission has not read this well.
On Freedom Day, Trump announced a 20% work on the EU for everything. After a fewer days he withdrew from this for a certain time, which was to be utilized for hard negotiations. They did not go well, so in late May he decided to soften the EU website, scaring it with duties of 50%, which should be treated as completely unimportant. Unfortunately, it worked due to the fact that one-sided import tariffs for EU goods were set at 15%.
The European Commission has so managed to score only 5 percent points compared to the duties announced in April. Japan, in a much more hard geopolitical and economical situation, played 9 percent points, as Trump Liberation Day threatened it at 24 percent. And let us remind you that Japan is decently occupied by the Americans and does not have its own army, but only self-defence forces being developed. However, EU countries have their armies, even if frequently poor, including Germany, which can besides be considered as inactive occupied.
Of course, neither Japan nor Germany present treat Americans as occupiers. All the more so Poles who dream of another 10,000 soldiers from overseas. Currently, U.S. troops in these countries are mostly considered safety guarantors. Europe is threatened by Russia, increasingly economically weak, backward and entangled (of its own free will) in murderous the war on Ukraine, He doesn't know how to get out. Japan is threatened by nearly 1.5 billion China, dynamically developing technologically and remembering the brutal business served by the Japanese. Yet Tokyo managed to play almost twice as much as Trump's first threats of April.
Trumponomimist's Laws: Harassment for Alliance Guarantees
The mention of geopolitical matters is not random here. 1 of the foundations of Trumponomika is to usage US alliance guarantees to rapidly change trading conditions with major partners. Most of Europe gave up on solid weapons, so in a situation of real danger, she was willing to accept anything to keep relations with the Americans. Even the unilateral imposition of duties on their goods.
And that's not all. The European Union has besides declared the acquisition of energy natural materials from the US worth $750 billion. If anyone thinks this is the end of this humiliation, it's wrong. Europe's countries should further increase direct investment in the US by $600 billion, which is already completely incomprehensible, as it has been the USA that has recorded a surplus inflow of capital from the Old Continent. According to EC data, in 2023 EU countries invested EUR 139 billion more in the US than went the another way.
The second best shows that Washington was not at all afraid with removing injustice in global economical relations on which the US was expected to lose. It was about forcing commercial and economical conditions that would be even more advantageous for the US. Indeed, in trade in goods, the EU recorded as much as €197 billion in export surplus in relations with the US. However, in the exchange of services, the USA recorded a surplus of EUR 109 billion. Thus, the US deficit was only 10% of European imports. And that would be a reasonable rate. 15 percent plus additional investments and immense purchases of energy is already a specified racket.
Contrary to first media reports, specified as TVP Info, the EU has not committed itself to buying weapons from the US. From the point of view of Poland, this is sad, due to the fact that we already buy immense amounts of military equipment from the Americans. specified a commitment would force the ignoring issue of the safety of the European state to arm itself, and Poland would guarantee safety of supply.
On the another hand, it is hard to anticipate that so hard-treated Europeans will now dare to make it hard to buy weapons from the US. However, reports have besides not confirmed that the EU should abolish its own customs duties on meat and sugar from overseas, which is good information for Polish farmers. For EU consumers, too, due to the fact that meat from America is not consumed.
EU-US trade agreement – beneficial for Poland, unfavourable for Europe
Not all goods have been charged duties. Exemptions were provided, so called zero for zero. Bilateral trade for aircraft and parts of aircraft will be exempt from customs duties, which will most likely delight Airbus, but besides the Polish Aviation Valley, which is an industrial complex located in south-eastern Poland (e.g. in Rzeszów and Mielec). In addition, any chemicals and generic medicines were exempted from customs duties (the another pharmaceuticals will be dutyed). Here again good information for Poland, which specializes in the production of chemicals and generic drugs (because we have our own patents, nomen omen, for medicine).
The biggest losers will be the German automotive manufacture and its subcontractors – namely Slovakia and Hungary, which depend on automotive production, especially German production. In Poland, the automotive manufacture is besides important, but it is surely not dependent on the success of the full economy.
In addition, Poland plays a immense function in this sector French-Italian company Stellantis, which has at least a immense mill in Tychy, around which the full environment of Polish and abroad suppliers has been created. Meanwhile, Americans do not buy economical Fiats or Citroens. They like voracious German diesel – Mercedes or Volkswagens.
In the short term, American consumers will besides be losers, who are already complaining about Trump's administration for increased costs of living. By the time the factories return to the U.S., any time will pass, the tariffs will translate into fast prices. Of course, in the long term, many of them will benefit from the return of any jobs in industry. The question is whether the Americans will want to return to their factories. Even considering that working in a high-quality mill is no longer a workhouse, it is alternatively a busy and push buttons in machines or robots.
And just so it's not that the author gets smart – after advanced school in 2000s I worked for 3 years in Tyki factories from respective industries. The hardest thing was in food – which Trump does not want to attract – but no mill has finished me as much as changing to kitchens in KFC already during college. This does not change the fact that even in the 21st century, in a developed planet work in a mill is more tedious and mostly little pleasant than in a clean office. So Americans may not accept the heat of higher costs of surviving now in exchange for a distant possible of working in a factory.
EU-US trade agreement – who can be satisfied?
As noted by James FitzGerald and Tom Geoghegan on the BBC portal, the agreement will besides be detrimental to European solidarity. It will should be applied by all, while costs and losses will be spread very unevenly. Although the Capital Economics analysis suggests a decrease in GDP of only 0.5%, in any countries it will be much higher. And this can origin interior animosity and further growth of Euroscepticism – especially in Germany, where AfD is growing.
Of course, the US manufacture and the US business in general will benefit the most, but for importers. Trump himself may besides feel like a winner due to the fact that he has forced even more on Europe than he wanted. Especially as American production will now be driven not only by the fresh tariffs imposed on the EU and Japan, but besides by the sharp drop in the dollar rate we are seeing this year.
Can anyone from Europe feel satisfied? Yes, Poles can undoubtedly be rather satisfied with this agreement. This may seem a paradox, but this agreement is beneficial from the point of view of Poland, although at the same time unfavourable for Europe as a whole.
Poland's direct exports to the USA are comparatively tiny and the industries in which we are strong have been excluded from customs. The U.S. order to buy energy resources is besides beneficial for Poland, as it depends on the USA – a key guarantor of the safety of Central and east Europe – besides another EU regions. And we've already moved on to American gas shopping.
It is besides little likely that the EU will prevent or impede the implementation of Polish arms and energy contracts (such as the Westinghouse atomic power plant) signed with Americans.
Above all, however, this agreement will make Europe's Americans no longer give up. specified an economical partner is simply a treasure for them – on the 1 hand wealthy, on the another hand completely subordinate. The EU-US trade agreement will importantly increase Poland's security, so it was very good that it was signed. However, it is simply a pity that the European Commission lacked the courage to fight for much better conditions, which was undoubtedly within reach.
