Key Events This Extremely Busy Week: Avalanche Of Macro, Central Banks, Earnings And Trade News

It’s a huge macro week ahead, with an avalanche of earnings, data and central banks. But, as has been the case since April’s Liberation Day, we start with trade.

This week’s key August 1st trade deadline has largely become a non-event. As DB’s Jim Reid writes, the last of the significant agreements was concluded yesterday, with the US and EU reaching a deal that mirrors the structure of the recent US-Japan accord. The agreement, as noted before, includes a 15% tariff on autos, excludes pharmaceuticals, and maintains the existing 50% tariffs on steel and aluminium. In a significant gesture, the EU has pledged to import $750 billion worth of energy, invest $600 billion into the US economy, and purchase “vast quantities” of military equipment. Additionally, the EU has committed to opening its markets to US goods at zero tariffs. On pharma there was some confusion as to whether the EU will be exempt from the upcoming Section 232 investigation on the sector. For now, there is mixed commentary on this from both sides.

Meanwhile, US-China negotiations are underway in Stockholm today and tomorrow. While the August 12th deadline looms, early reports, so far only from Chinese press headlines, suggest a 90-day extension has been granted. This development, if confirmed, would further reduce the urgency surrounding this week’s trade calendar. So expect the White House stationery cupboard to take a hit this week, with a flurry of letters flying out— but in the context of most of the big trade understandings having already been agreed.

Adding a curveball to the week though, Thursday (July 31st) will see the Federal Appeals Court hear the International Trade Court’s ruling that President Trump’s use of an emergency declaration to impose tariffs was unlawful. It’s hard to gauge the outcome or the potential impact if the policy is indeed struck down—so this is one to watch. It feels like the agreements made with other countries would likely stand even if the court ruling continues to go against Mr Trump. For others he will pivot to different methods of imposing tariffs. So perhaps no major impact now, but we will see.

Turning to central banks, the Fed meets on Wednesday. The key question is whether enough uncertainty has lifted for the Fed to signal a clearer policy direction for September.

The Federal Reserve is likely to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday (4.25-4.50%) for a fifth consecutive meeting, leaving all the emphasis on Chair Powell’s press conference and any indication of a cut at the next meeting in September. Notably, Deutsche Bank economists anticipate two governors will dissent – something that hasn’t happened since 1993 – at a time when political pressure on Chair Powell is intensifying. On current evidence, strong inflation rather than weak growth remains the bigger problem. Just a few hours prior to the decision is the next ADP jobs report. A month ago, it reported 33k of private sector job losses and noted respondents were all suspending hiring plans on tariff uncertainty.

Also meeting this week are the Bank of Canada (Wednesday) and the Bank of Japan (Thursday), both expected to keep rates unchanged. For the BoJ, the markets will only be interested in anything Governor Ueda has to say about the persistent gains in long-end JGB yields, with the 10-year at its highest of 1.58% since 2008.

The Fed isn’t the only focus in the US this week. It’s a packed schedule for data and earnings, culminating in Friday’s payrolls report. Deutsche Bank forecasts a headline gain of just +75k (vs consensus +109k and last month’s +147k), and +100k for private payrolls (matching consensus and up from +74k last month). The difference reflects a reversal in strong state and local hiring seen in the previous month. Both DB and consensus expect the unemployment rate to tick up to 4.2%. Importantly, a growing number of economists believe that with lower immigration, even payrolls in the 50–100k range could still tighten the labor market. Also of note: whatever interpretation Powell puts on things on Wednesday could be very different by close Friday if payrolls weaken and the apparent margin squeeze on earnings has continued. Other labor indicators this week include the JOLTS report tomorrow and ADP data on Wednesday.

Also on Wednesday, Q2 US GDP is expected to show a +2.1% print, rebounding from -0.5% in Q1. Thursday brings the crucial June core PCE data, alongside personal income and consumption figures. Rounding out the US data highlights, we’ll see the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for July tomorrow (DB forecast 96.1 vs 93.0 in June), the Q2 employment cost index, and the ISM manufacturing gauge for July on Friday (DB forecast 49.5 vs 49.0 in June).

Here is another visualization of the coming macro deluge:

In other US news, the Treasury refunding announcement is due Wednesday, following today’s borrowing estimate. Remember that a couple of summers ago this announcement shocked markets with unexpectedly large long-term debt auctions. However, since then, the Treasury has managed the process to avoid such surprises.

In Europe, July CPI and preliminary Q2 GDP figures will be released across major economies. Spain’s inflation report comes Wednesday, followed by France, Italy and Germany on Thursday, and the Eurozone on Friday. GDP prints begin with Spain on Tuesday, then Germany, France, Italy and the Eurozone on Wednesday. Labour market data will also be released throughout the week. Tomorrow, the ECB will publish its consumer expectations survey for June. Other macro data include Q2 GDP from Sweden, Australia, Germany and France.

In Asia, key releases include July PMIs in China on Thursday and Friday, and Japan’s June industrial production, retail sales and July consumer confidence on Thursday. Bloomberg’s median estimates suggest China’s manufacturing PMI will remain unchanged at 49.7, while the non-manufacturing index is expected to dip slightly to 50.3 from 50.5 in June.

Turning to earnings, UBS’ Simon Penn writes that almost half of S&P 500 companies will report their Q2 earnings over the coming week, including Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Apple.

For most earnings, the focus will be just as much on tariff impact as topline numbers. Thus far, aggregate earnings and revenue might be beating (thanks to financials), but margins are being squeezed. In cyclicals, margins are down almost 8% y/y and within that, materials are 5.8% lower. So at the very moment that investors are rotating into the cyclical catch-up trades, those same companies are reporting declining margins and weakening earnings. The materials sector in the S&P has been up 4% in the last two weeks.

Courtesy of DB, Here is a day-by-day calendar of events:

Monday July 28

• Data: US July Dallas Fed manufacturing activity
• Earnings: EssilorLuxottica, Cadence Design Systems, Heineken
• Auctions: US Treasury borrowing estimate, 2-year Notes ($69bn), 5-year Notes ($70bn)

Tuesday July 29

• Data: US June JOLTS report, advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, July Conference Board consumer confidence index, Dallas Fed services activity, May FHFA house price index, UK June net consumer credit, M4, France Q2 total jobseekers, Sweden June GDP indicator
• Central banks: ECB June consumer expectations survey
• Earnings: Visa, Procter & Gamble, UnitedHealth, L’Oreal, AstraZeneca, Merck & Co, Booking, Boeing, Spotify, Air Liquide, Starbucks, Keyence, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Mondelez, UPS, PayPal, Barclays, Advantest, Corning, Sika, Orange, Electronic Arts, Kering, Stellantis
• Auctions: US 2-year FRN ($30bn), 7-year Notes ($44bn)

Wednesday July 30

• Data: US Q2 GDP, July ADP report, June pending home sales, Germany Q2 GDP, June retail sales, France Q2 GDP, June consumer spending, Italy Q2 GDP, June wages, May industrial sales, Eurozone Q2 GDP, July economic confidence, Australia June CPI
• Central banks: Fed’s decision, BoC’s decision
• Earnings: Microsoft, Meta, Hermes, HSBC, Qualcomm, Airbus, ARM, UBS, Lam Research, Rio Tinto, Intesa Sanpaolo, Trane Technologies, Robinhood, Vinci, GSK, BAE, Mercedes-Benz, Danone, BASF, Porsche, Ford, adidas, eBay, Hershey, Kraft Heinz, Leonardo, Capgemini, Nissan, Wingstop, Etsy, Just Eat
• Auctions: US Treasury quarterly refunding announcement

Thursday July 31

• Data: US June PCE, personal income, personal spending, July MNI Chicago PMI, Q2 employment cost index, initial jobless claims, China July official PMIs, UK July Lloyds Business Barometer, Japan June retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, July consumer confidence index, Germany July CPI, unemployment claims rate, June import price index, France July CPI, June PPI, Italy July CPI, June PPI, unemployment rate, Eurozone June unemployment rate, Canada May GDP
• Central banks: BoJ’s decision
• Earnings: Apple, Amazon, Mastercard, AbbVie, Samsung, Shell, S&P Global, Schneider Electric, Stryker, Unilever, Hitachi, AB InBev, Safran, KKR, Comcast, Sanofi, KLA, British American Tobacco, MicroStrategy, Rolls-Royce, Sumitomo Mitsui, Coinbase, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Ferrari, Enel, Tokyo Electron, BBVA, Roblox, Cigna, Howmet Aerospace, CVS Health, LSEG, ING, BMW, UMG, Credit Agricole, DSV, Societe Generale, Holcim, Haleon, Standard Chartered, Legrand, Anglo American, Hanwha Aerospace, Blue Owl, PG&E, ArcelorMittal, Kellanova, DSM-Firmenich, Reddit, Euronext, Renault, Norwegian Cruise Line, Davide Campari-Milano, Lottomatica, Riot Platforms, Puma

Friday August 1

• Data: US July jobs report, ISM index, total vehicle sales, June construction spending, China July manufacturing PMI, Japan June jobless rate, job-to-applicant ratio, Italy July manufacturing PMI, new car registrations, budget balance, June retail sales, Eurozone July CPI, Canada July manufacturing PMI
• Earnings: Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Linde, Nintendo, AXA, Regeneron, Ares, Engie, Daimler Truck, LyondellBasell, Moderna

Finally, looking at just US macro, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the Q2 advance GDP report on Wednesday, the Employment Cost Index on Thursday, and the employment report and ISM manufacturing report on Friday. The July FOMC meeting is on Wednesday. The post-meeting statement will be released at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM. The pause on many country-specific tariffs is set to end on Friday, August 1st.

Monday, July 28

• 10:30 AM Dallas Fed manufacturing index, July (consensus -9.5, last -12.7)

Tuesday, July 29

• 08:30 AM Advance goods trade balance, June (GS -$100.0bn, consensus -$98.0bn, last -$96.4bn): We forecast that the goods trade deficit widened by $3.6bn to $100.0bn in June, reflecting a decline in gold exports and a rebound in imports from China and other Asian countries.
• 08:30 AM Wholesale inventories, June preliminary (consensus -0.1%, last -0.3%)
• 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, May (consensus -0.2%, last -0.4%)
• 09:00 AM S&P Case-Shiller home price index, May (GS -0.4%, consensus -0.2%, last -0.3%)
• 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, June (GS 7,300k, consensus 7,525k, last 7,769k): We estimate that JOLTS job openings declined to 7.3mn in June based on the signal from online job postings.
• 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, July (GS 96.5, consensus 96.0, last 93.0)

Wednesday, July 30

• 08:15 AM ADP employment change, July (GS +90k, consensus +80k, last -33k)
• 08:30 AM GDP, Q2 advance (GS +2.6%, consensus +2.4%, last -0.5%); Personal consumption, Q2 advance (GS +1.3%, consensus +1.5%, last +0.5%); Core PCE inflation, Q2 advance (GS +2.26%, consensus +2.3%, last +3.5%): We estimate that GDP rose 2.6% annualized in the advance reading for Q2, following -0.5% annualized in Q1. Our forecast reflects a sharp decline in imports growth (-25.0%, quarter-over-quarter annualized vs. +38.0% in Q1) after imports surged ahead of tariff increases in Q1, leading to the largest drag on GDP growth from net exports on record. We expect net exports to contribute +4.5pp to Q2 GDP growth. We expect a moderate rebound in consumption (+1.3% vs. +0.5% in Q1) but weaker residential (-8.6% vs. -1.3% in Q1) and business fixed investment (+1.1% vs. +10.3%), reflecting a sharp slowdown in equipment investment (+3.3% vs. +23.7% in Q1) as a result of a decline in imported computer and communications equipment after a frontloading-led surge in Q1. We estimate that domestic final sales rose 0.9% in Q2, and that the core PCE price index increased 2.26% annualized (or 2.71% year-over-year) in Q2.
• 10:00 AM Pending home sales, June (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.3%, last +1.8%)
• 02:00 PM FOMC statement, July 29-30 meeting: We expect the FOMC to leave the fed funds rate unchanged at its July meeting, as the FOMC maintains a “wait-and-see” approach to monetary policy amid elevated uncertainty. We expect the FOMC to cut three times in 2025, with the first cut at the September meeting. We expect another two cuts in 2026 for a terminal rate of 3-3.25%.

Thursday, July 31

• 08:30 AM Employment cost index, Q2 (GS +0.8%, consensus +0.8%, last +0.9%): We estimate the employment cost index rose by 0.8% in Q2 (quarter-over-quarter, seasonally adjusted), which would lower the year-on-year rate by one tenth to 3.5% (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted). Our forecast reflects a roughly unchanged wage and salary growth—reflecting the signals from the Atlanta Fed’s wage tracker and average hourly earnings—and weaker ECI benefit growth after a jump in Q1.
• 08:30 AM Personal income, June (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.2%, last -0.4%): Personal spending, June (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.4%, last -0.1%); Core PCE price index, June (GS +0.25%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%); Core PCE price index (YoY), June (GS +2.73%, consensus +2.7%, last +2.7%); PCE price index, June (GS +0.28%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.1%); PCE price index (YoY), June (GS +2.52%, consensus +2.5%, last +2.3%): We estimate that personal income and personal spending increased by 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, in June. We estimate that the core PCE price index rose by 0.25% in June, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.73%. Additionally, we estimate that the headline PCE price index increased by 0.28% in June, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.52%.
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended July 26 (GS 215k, consensus 224k, last 217k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended July 19 (consensus 1,955k, last 1,974k)
• 09:45 AM Chicago PMI, July (consensus 42.0, last 40.4)

Friday, August 1

• 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, July (GS +100k, consensus +109k, last +147k); Private payroll employment, July (GS +100k, consensus +100k, last +74k); Average hourly earnings (MoM), July (GS +0.25%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%); Unemployment rate, July (GS 4.2%, consensus 4.2%, last 4.1%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 100k in July. On the positive side, big data indicators pointed to a rebound in private sector job growth to a somewhat firmer (but still soft) pace. On the negative side, we expect unchanged government payrolls, reflecting a 15k decline in federal government payrolls that offsets a 15k increase in state and local government payrolls. We have pencilled in partial payback for last month’s spike in state and local education services hiring, though we suspect that June growth could be revised lower, as was the case last year. We estimate that the unemployment rate rebounded to 4.2% on a rounded basis, reflecting the signal from other measures of labor market slack. We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.25% (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted), reflecting negative calendar effects.
• 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, July final (consensus 49.5, last 49.5)
• 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, July (GS 49.0, consensus 49.5, last 49.0): We estimate the ISM manufacturing index was unchanged at 49.0 in July, reflecting mixed manufacturing surveys so far for the month and a slight headwind from residual seasonality.
• 10:00 AM Construction spending, June (GS -0.2%, consensus flat, last -0.3%)
• 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, July final (GS 62.5, consensus 61.8, last 61.8): University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, July final (GS 3.5%, last 3.6%)
• 05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, July (GS 16.2mn, consensus 15.73mn, last 15.34mn)

Source: DB, Goldman