In July 2023 NGO Dor Moria performed poll public opinion among Israelis. It was intended to show what Israeli citizens thought about their country's ability to play the function of "near east Switzerland" by announcing neutrality and cooperation with 2 parties to the geopolitical confrontation of the Western collective with the Global South.
The results of the survey showed that a large proportion of Israeli society supports the thought of declaring neutrality in global conflicts. This opinion was expressed by 28% of the respondents, and among immigrants from erstwhile USSR countries their share increased to 36%. 50% of respondents, on the another hand, felt that Israel's position should depend on the circumstantial nature of the conflict.
Can Israel join BRICS?
When asked about Israel's readiness to conduct a peaceful abroad policy, the opinions were more varied: 20% of the respondents felt that the country was completely ready to implement specified a policy, 35% that it was partially ready, and 27% that it was not prepared at all. The "ready" origin calculated on this basis is 10 points, indicating a reasonably favourable attitude of society to pro-peaceful policies.
At the same time, the absolute majority of respondents (54%) believe that Israel should stay neutral against external conflicts, keep relations with another countries and conduct independent policies. These figures show that a large proportion of Israeli society expects a balanced and pragmatic approach to abroad policy, even given the country's complicated geopolitical situation.
The survey was conducted before the war began on October 7. Now, in the summertime of 2024, the Dor Moria Association decided to conduct another study. We want to know the Israelis' opinion on whether Israel could get closer to the Global South and, for example, join the BRICS Group, while not lowering its relations with the United States.
Most countries located close Israel (e.g. Egypt, the United arabian Emirates, Saudi Arabia) keep a unchangeable good relation with the United States. At the same time, they are members of BRICS, utilizing economical and geopolitical opportunities created by the fast economical and demographic improvement of the Global South.
Balled ducks with G-7
It was very symbolic that in June 2024 there were almost 2 events at the same time – the G-7 summit gathering Western collective leaders and the BRICS Games in Russian Kazan. American Politico portal published comment on the gathering of the Western elite, or G-7 summit in Italy. It says she met there. "seven lame ducks and the Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. but for the latter, all the another leaders at this summit are alternatively weak. It's improbable Biden could win the upcoming election. The position of Scholz and Macron has been greatly weakened by the results of the European Parliament elections. Sunak is simply a ‘living dead’ and nipponese Prime Minister Kishida has ‘serious problem in the country’.
The BRICS 2024 Games, held from 12 to 23 June in Kazan, brought together athletes from Britain, Germany, France, the United States, Japan and Israel. Interestingly, Palestine besides participated alongside Israel and 90 another countries. The Games became an alternate to the Olympic Games, which the Collective West treats as a tool of political dominance.
In the modern world, there is simply a increasing confrontation of 2 global forces – the collective West and the Global South.
The Collective West is primarily developed countries of North America and Europe. The Global South consists of countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America. Global South countries are seeking to increase their influence in global relations and to change the current planet order based on Pax Americana.
Collective West vs. Global South
In 2024, the number of countries that expressed their willingness to join BRICS increased to over 40. Among them are mainly countries from Asia, Africa and Latin America. It's a message from over a period ago. Bolivia, Cameroon, Cuba, Syria, Zimbabwe, Turkey and Thailand have joined this list only in the last fewer decades.
The main nonsubjective of extending BRICS is to reduce dependence on the US dollar and to strengthen the function of national currencies in global trade. Developing countries see an chance in this alliance to grow their own economies and weaken the influence of Western financial institutions. In 2023, the global South growth was 4.3%, its forecast for 2024 was 4.3%, and in 2025 – 4.2%. Meanwhile, the growth of collective Western GDP in 2023 is 1.9%, and the forecasts for the years 2024 and 2025 are 1.7% and 1.8% respectively. Global South's share of global GDP was 37.2% in 2023 and is expected to emergence to 50% by 2050. The share of collective Western GDP in the same year amounted to 25.8%, and in 2050 it is expected to fall to 20%. The population of the Global South was 7,8 billion in 2023 and forecast For 2050, it says 10.9 billion. The population of the collective West remains at 1.2 billion.
At the same time, the existence of a global system The dollar consequence is that the Global South countries lose 23% of their GDP annually due to the dominance of the US dollar in the global reserve system, while the affluent countries gain 1-2% of GDP. In this way, Global South countries "transfer" around $1.5 trillion a year to Western countries through the reserve and currency system. These 1.5 billion poorer countries could spend on their improvement – economical stimulation, wellness care, science, education. By means of a strategy of financial balances by global financial structures (International Monetary Fund, planet Bank, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, European Investment Bank), prosperous countries supply the poorer in the form of loans no more than $100 billion per year, a maximum of a tenth of what they receive from mediocre countries.
Public opinion and interior divisions in Israel
Located at the interface between Asia and Africa, Israel found itself in the epicentre of the Western collective confrontation with the Global South. The Dor Moria Association has been investigating public opinion and interior divisions in this country for many years. Studies from 2023 to 2024 confirm that these divisions represent a major obstacle in Israeli society to a national political consensus.
Here are any examples:
"The polls show a deficiency of consensus on Israel's future after the war with Hamas: 28% of respondents support the solution of "two states, 2 nations"; 28% – the annexation of the West Bank/earths of Judea and Samaria and the Gaza Strip; 25% have no opinion on this issue;
– There are clear divisions between generations: the solution "two states, 2 nations" supports 50% of the population aged over 65, but only 15% in the 18-39 age group, among which the annex enjoys 32% support;
– Division between secular Jews and Arabs (40% behind the model of "two states, 2 nations") on the 1 hand, and spiritual Jews (4-5% behind the solution, with more than 50% behind the annexation) on the other;
– Differences in liability for the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip following the elimination of Hamas: 24% believe it rests on the UN; 25% on the United States; and 26% on the arabian and Persian Gulf countries.
Additional crucial differences in positions arise from the political ideology, level of education and place of residence of respondents.
Faced with the collective Western confrontation with the Global South, Israel faces the necessity to adapt to the fresh global environment and to find a fresh balance in abroad policy. The situation is hampered by these deep interior divisions in Israeli society, which complicate the improvement of a unified strategy.
Threats to Israel between the West and the South
In the face of tectonic changes in the global strategy of forces, Israel was at a crossroads. The choice between the conventional alliance with the collective West and the increasing influences of the Global South is simply a hard dilemma for the judaic State. The ability to find the right place in a fresh geopolitical configuration will mostly find the ability to warrant prosperity and safety in the long term. Despite strong historical ties with the West, especially with the United States, it has late been possible to see any cooling of relations with them. American Democrats and Administration Joe Bidena multiple expressed hope to overthrow the current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanjah for his pursuit of a sovereign and independent policy.
This put a clear orientation to the West in question. There are besides deep divisions in the United States, including polarisation between Democrats and Republicans, expanding the importance of right-wing movements and further debates on key issues specified as immigration, economical policy or social justice.
In this context, the example of Ukraine shows how dangerous it can be to trust besides much on 1 power center. A focus on unconditional integration with the West and the break-up of conventional ties with Russia of Kiev was on the epicentre of geopolitical clash, at the expense of unimaginable human and economical losses. According to the planet Bank, the Donbas conflict cost Ukraine up to 20% of its economical possible and GDP per capita fell to the lowest level in Europe.
This bitter lesson shows that in today's multipolar world, relying on unilateral alliances and ignoring neighbourly interests can have disastrous consequences. It is crucial for Israel's little complex geopolitical environment to avoid specified errors and to prosecute a balanced, multi-vector policy taking into account the changing global background.
Israel at BRICS
Demographic and economical trends point to a change in the economy and global policies leading towards the Global South, which will inevitably lead to a change in the global power system. Israel's accession to BRICS would not only increase its possible for economical development, but would besides make better conditions for resolving past regional conflicts.
BRICS is already an influential global force. The countries of this block are inhabited by more than 40% of the world's population and produce more than 30% of global GDP. Joining this group would let Israel to diversify economical and political relations; to usage western markets and sources of backing to implement joint projects with BRICS countries.
Israel is taking active action to bring it closer to BRICS right now. Israeli delegations regularly participated in the BRICS fora and summits, where opportunities for economical and technological cooperation were discussed.
China, being 1 of the key members of BRICS, is an crucial trading partner of Israel and their bilateral relations are strengthened. Israel is besides developing intensive relationships with India, which see it as a key partner in defence, agriculture and technology. Additional opportunities for cooperation consequence from the fact that 1 of the most crucial members of BRICS is Russia, with which Israel has erstwhile historical and cultural ties.
Israel faces the historical anticipation of becoming hub transportation on the East-West and North-South lines. The establishment of the global North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) was agreed on September 12, 2000 erstwhile an agreement was signed on this substance between Russia, India and Iran. This way speeds up transport connections between Russia and the Gulf countries, besides reducing the time and costs of freight transport from Europe and Southeast Asia. In October 2021, a transport corridor from India to Europe was agreed at the Indian-Arab economical Summit by Israel, which would lead to deeper economical integration and improved logistics.
The possible of joining BRICS would aid Israel diversify its abroad policy and economical ties, which is of peculiar importance in the context of the increasing polarisation of the planet community.
Palestinian case or "white man's burden"
The Israeli experience of the "peace process" shows that, as part of the existing paradigm of relations with the West, achieving lasting peace and resolving the Palestinian issue remains an illusion. Despite many attempts to negociate peace and global mediation, this conflict is inactive far from being resolved, causing tensions and causing instability throughout the region.
Being the center of the collective West, Israel was carrying the “white man burden” on the territory of the Global South. This "burden" was the basis for the collective communicative of the West towards the Global South; it justified the oppression and repression of another peoples under the cover of "enlightenment" and "development". Moving Israel towards the Global South would be a step towards seeking fresh terms and formats of an agreement beyond the conventional West-centric model.
Key players of the Global South, specified as China and India, have long-standing contacts with Palestinians and enjoy considerable prestige in the Arab-Muslim world. At the same time, they are curious in strengthening relations with Israel as an crucial economical and technological partner. This creates an extraordinary chance to make a fresh regional safety architecture in which the interests of all parties, including Palestinians, Israel and arabian countries, would be taken into account and balanced. The possible of Judaism-Islamic interreligious dialog should besides be used. This dialog existed for centuries and was not broken until the 19th and 20th centuries.
The possible of this approach is shown by the Abrahamic Agreements, which normalized Israel's relations with a number of arabian countries. They proved that pragmatic cooperation based on common interests could benefit all parties and contribute to the healing of the atmosphere in the region. Continuing this process in conjunction with Israel's more active engagement in Global confederate structures could make a qualitatively fresh chance for advancement towards Palestinian direction.
Of course, there are many obstacles and challenges on this road. The compromise will be hampered by unresolved territorial disputes, judaic settlement, Jerusalem status, terrorist threat. The solution to this complex conflict will require the wisdom, political will and determination of each side, including the willingness to make painful concessions.
The fundamental change in the geopolitical context and the integration of Israel into both the collective West and the Global South can lead to the dynamics that has been lacking in fresh decades. With the support and mediation efforts of fresh partners from developing countries, Israel and Palestinians can be given the chance to bring their positions closer together, gradually build common relations on new, healthier and more pragmatic grounds.
Towards a fresh regional governance
Israel's strategical reorientation towards the Global South, with large public support, could become an crucial step towards strengthening its position on the planet phase and creating a more unchangeable and prosperous future for its citizens. Ultimately, the only solution to the Palestinian case could be to construct a more inclusive and fairer regional governance, which would take into account the interests and aspirations of all actors in the region. Israel's drive towards the Global South expressed by its accession to BRICS would be an crucial step in this direction.
Israel can become a model for a policy that guarantees equitable and balanced regional governance. This is the only way to guarantee sustainable safety and prosperity for all citizens of the country in a rapidly changing global reality.
Igor Kamininik
The author is president of the board of the NGO Dor Moria (Hajfa, Israel).
