Israel's attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus on 1 April, resulting in the deaths of many diplomatic workers, officers and 2 IRGC generals, seems provocative adequate to anticipate reciprocity from Tehran. There has been no immediate response, and over the past 2 weeks, everyone has observed a ‘signal exchange’, specified as the emergency of rocket and air defence forces, the establishment of no-fly zones and another military-political courtesy.
On 12 April, the WSJ, citing its source, reported that Israel was preparing to attack Iran within the next 24–48 hours. Iran evidently does not want the uncontrollable consequences of its retaliation. According to Axios, the Iranian abroad Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian promised that Tehran's consequence would be "limited" to prevent escalation. Prior to that, Iran signaled its willingness to "understand and forgive" if the war in the Gaza Strip ceased or at least the UN powerfully condemns Israel. Of course, Tehran considers it an optimal option to exchange punches erstwhile without escalating the situation in an extended and uncontrolled exchange.
Why that is, it is understandable. If Iran carries out a rocket attack on Israel from its territory, this will mean a fresh conflict in the mediate East. Israel, where Netanjahu's position is already uncertain due to a futile operation in Gaza for six months, will be forced to make an aggressive line of defence and respond with an attack in Iran. Netanjah warned on Thursday that Israel would not leave the attack unanswered, no substance where it came from.
Each iteration brings the conflict closer to full-scale. The form of conflict will most likely be distant in the form of rocket attacks: Iraq, Jordan and Syria lie between Iran and Israel, and an army gathering in an open field is unlikely.
It would be much more convenient and promising for Iran to affect Hezbollah in Lebanon, which was created due to geographical difficulties, as well as the Iranian base in Syria. The flight time is shorter, Hezbollah has adequate rockets, it will not be Iran's direct attack, although everyone will realize everything. This seems to be understood besides in Israel. On Wednesday, Israeli abroad Minister Israel Katz said that if Iran attacks Israel from its territory, IDF will retaliate in Iran. You must realize that Tel-Aviv besides likes the "Liban option".
The mediate East conflict usually results in a short to medium-term emergence in oil prices, mainly due to increases in carrier insurance rates. If the main producers in the region, the United arabian Emirates and Saudi Arabia, can stay distant from the conflict – and they have the chance – there is no reason for breathtaking oil prices.
However, the situation offers many possibilities, including those dependent on stupid cases. The level of hazard is higher than usual, which is why the United States is busy trying to solve the conflict. Accordingly, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken promised Israeli defence minister Gallant support to counter any threat from Iran. At the same time, the same Blinken turned to all, from Turkey to China, to ask for influence on Iran. In order not to gotta fulfil their allied obligations towards Israel and interfere in the fight, even more raising oil prices and paralyzing (with Houthi) sea trade by Suez for all but Russia and China.
If Hezbollah fired missiles towards Israel, and this 1 hit Lebanon, it would be useful for all active players. another options will either be insufficient, technically complicated, or burdened with unpredictable escalation.
In general, given the above, the reconnaissance as of present is as follows:
If Iran wanted to strike, and most importantly, it was ready for it (including consequences), it would have hit long ago, regardless of them. If he does not respond, and rightly, since he understands that Netanyahu will immediately flee into the bushes and hide behind Washington's wide back, then the answer will be clearly asymmetrical. But erstwhile Tehran realizes that the consequences of the attack on Israel will prevail over all the retaliatory inconveniences, then of course it will strike with all its might – remembering all the years of humiliation by Tel Aviv and all the fallen heroes. That's unforgivable, and shame washes only the blood of the enemy.
@barantchik
for: https://vizitnlo.ru/protivostoyanie-irana-i-izrailya-kuda-kakhnetsya-mayatnik-eskalachii/
(PZ)
