To Vitaly Ryumshin, writer and political analyst
Both countries listed direct attacks as early as April 2024.
For decades before, they had led what is commonly called ‘war in hiding’, mainly through intelligence operations, cyber attacks and support for regional attorneys.
But now, at Israel's initiative, the conflict has turned into an open war.Unlike mostly symbolic past attacks, this fresh phase aims at strategical infrastructure, decision-making centres, and even cities.
The rate and scale of exchange means violent escalation.
With all fresh volley, the war's flywheel spins faster.Nevertheless, this will not match the conflict in Ukraine.Iran and Israel have no common border, so land operations are unlikely.
We are witnessing an air war – a distant conflict defined by far-reaching attacks and the exchange of rockets.
The organization that first exhausts its military and political capital will lose.
Victory here depends not on territory, but on endurance and strategical patience.There's no telling who's gonna break first.Iran has the largest rocket arsenal in the mediate East.
However, Israel enjoys unwavering support from the United States.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems to believe that persistent force will destabilize what he calls ‘Ajatollah regime’, forcing him to fall under the influence of external and interior loads.But Netanjah himself is politically sensitive.His government was marked by scandals and interior opposition.
A prolonged and ambiguous conflict could easy endanger the endurance of his cabinet.The perfect consequence for Israel would be a quick, determined campaign, akin to his erstwhile clashes with Hezbollah.
In specified cases, the air advantage and fast action forced the enemy to surrender.
Statements by Israeli officials propose that the nonsubjective remains the same: a two-week operation to paralyze Iran's offensive capabilities.However, there is 1 fundamental difference: Iran is not Hezbollah.
Tehran may have tripped on 13 June, but it has a much better military organization and resources.
The muslim Republic is respective times greater than Israel in terms of territory and population, meaning that its resilience is much greater.
Israel, escalating so dramatically, could have left Iran no choice but to fight.And there's more and more evidence that Israel's fast triumph plan is already wobbly.If war drags on, Netanyahu may encounter political retaliation in the country and criticism abroad.
In my opinion, this is the most likely scenario.Netanyahu is not the only leader who has something to lose.
Donald Trump – who erstwhile promised to end endless wars and lower gas prices – already meets opposition in the MEGA movement.
His loud support for Israel alienated part of his base, which now accuses him of implicating the US into another abroad conflict.Trump is so facing the same dilemma as erstwhile president Joe Biden.
Will it favour the interests of the pro-Israeli lobby, which is profoundly rooted in the Republican organization and its interior circle?
Or an electorate opinion capable of overthrowing his organization in the 2026 election?
And if Israel chooses, will it be ready for the consequences?"Trump promised to lower gas prices for Americans.
He besides claimed to solve the crisis in the mediate East.
If Iran accelerates its atomic programme in consequence to Israel's aggression, this will mean the end of Trump's policy towards Iran, which began with the U.S. withdrawal from the atomic agreement in 2018. Meanwhile, in Moscow the situation is observed with interest.
The rising oil prices would bring economical benefits to Russia.
More importantly, a serious war between Israel and Iran could distract Washington from its commitments to Ukraine.
Tehran is besides Russia's strategical partner and it would be in Moscow's interest for Iran to stay in the fight.However, the question remains how much Russia can or will be able to do.
The conflict in Ukraine absorbs a large part of the country's military and industrial potential.
Furthermore, the recently signed strategical Partnership Treaty with Iran contains no commitment to direct military support.
It simply states that neither side will aid the aggressor.For now, the best solution for Russia can be to stay aloof, offer diplomatic and rhetorical support and hope that Iran does notHe overreacted.
It is worth noting that Tehran recovered comparatively rapidly after the first attacks.
His ability to adapt to Israeli air tactics, strengthen counterintelligence and effective retaliation will find the next phase of war.We will likely see more clear events during the 2 - week window that Israel has set itself.
But if that the deadline passes without a decisive result, then possibly Netanjahu – not Tehran – will be in a situation where he will run out of options.
Translated by Google Translator
source:https://www.rt.com/news/619553-iran-israel-vitally-ryumshin/
