Publishing and commenting polls is simply a permanent point of political ritualwhich usually does not contain any amazing elements. It has always been known that the winners are satisfied, the losers shout loudly about polling manipulations. Plus, there's a search for causes and guilt. All these mandatory elements appeared after the publication of the latest IBRIS poll, and there would be no reason for a deeper reflection if not for a fewer details completely omitted by most commentators. Let us look at the beginning of what IBRIS proposes, by the way, 1 of the more compromised in the context of the presidential election forecasts.
In the first place, PiS received a consequence of 30.5 percent of votes, but with a failure of 1.7 percent in relation to the erstwhile study. The second place is taken by KO, which only 25.8% want to vote for, and this means a failure of as much as 7.6 percent of the electorate, and only in a month. 3rd place came to the Confederates, a score of 16.8 percent and 0.3 percent loss, which means that Mentzen's organization is holding the course. The 4th position belongs to the Left 6.1% and an increase of 1.1%. The 5th place came to the debut organization of Grzegorz Braun of the Confederation of the Polish Crown, and the consequence 5.1 percent is rewarded with entry to the Sejm. The remaining parties do not enter the Sejm, but the most interesting quotations in this group concern the erstwhile "Third Way", which as a coalition last period had 6% of support, while separately it looks like: Poland 2050 4.6%, PSL percent. The last place came to 3.9 percent (+1.4%).
In the above ranking 1 does not rise any doubt, the absolute loser is KO, but already interpretations of defeats made by the environment associated with this formation rise considerable uncertainty and amusement. The view that this is the consequence of the deficiency of accounts of the Law and the abandonment of the fight against "false elections" prevails. A number diagnosis says that they are liable for a sharp fall in the numbers Roman Giertych's madnesssupported by Donald Tusk. The paradox is that both sides are right erstwhile the organization is in crisis, it loses voters from all sides, from radicals to centrists. The PiS fell into a somewhat different explanation trap, which aspirated the defeat of the enemy KO, but did not announcement that nothing gained and lost 1.7 percent. The conclusion is simple, both parties are not credible for the electorate, due to the fact that a barren dispute between them reached critical mass and even polarization ceased to work.
In fact, the winners of this poll are: Confederation and Confederation of the Polish Crown, Menzen's organization achieved historical support and is close to exceeding 20%, in turn Grzegorz Braun destroyed Jarosław Kaczyński's doctrine: "nothing to the Law of the Law of the Laws". They should besides draw conclusions from PSL and Poland 2050, due to the fact that in this apparent contradiction, that it does not lose itself, but gains, there is simply a hidden simple truth. Voters get lost erstwhile they receive conflicting messages and worse views within the same formation. Almost identical situation takes place on the left, here besides both parties gain for the same reason, mention to circumstantial views and thus to a peculiar electorate.
There's inactive to be poured out bucket of cold water on all the optimists sharing their skin on a bear, that is, parking tickets in the Sejm. Even with exit poll, the mistake was over 1%, and the poll mistake is 3%, and we always have election surprises. 2 parties barely exceed the electoral threshold, 3 another parties approach the threshold, so the agreement in the Sejm can be highly different, starting with the fact that only the PiS, KO and Confederation will enter, ending with: PiS, KO, Confederacy, Left, Braun, PSL, Poland 2050, Total. Indirect options can besides completely reverse the division of mandates: the PiS, the KO, the Confederation and Braun give a constitutional majority. On the another hand, the arrangement: PiS, KO, Confederacy, Left, PSL, Poland 2050 and Together, threatens to paralyze erstwhile building the majority. Everything is inactive possible and unstable.
We don't believe in anyone, we don't believe in anything! We look at facts and draw conclusions!
