In early September, Algerians moved to polling urns, and little than a period later, their neighbors from Tunisia, the parent of the arabian Spring, would do the same. However, voting in the Maghreb is barely a celebration of democracy. The results of Algerian elections were manipulated so badly that the election commission criticized even the new-old president Abd al-Majid Tabbun. His triumph should besides be unharmed Tunisian counterpartKais Su’ajjid took care to remove the main rivals from the race.
Located in Maghreb, in the west of the arabian world, Algeria and Tunisia, they have much in common. After the liberation, secular dictatorships were established, more or little flirting with socialism during the Cold War, but abandoned by both countries respective decades ago. After the arabian Spring, it may have seemed that their past was beginning to dissipate, as a democratic revolution prevailed in Tunisia, and in Algeria the power camp held tight after a triumph in a bloody civilian war from the turn of the century. Recently, neighbors have reunited with 1 another in bodily matters.
The Tunisian Republic gradually returns to authoritarianism, only in a fresh edition. liable President Kais Su’ajjid, who, having won the 2019 election, proceeded to rebuild the state, ruling many months without the Parliament being dissolved by himself and imposing a new, more conservative constitution on Tunisia, with a stronger position of head of state. In many ways these are well known in Algeria. For African neighbours, this year's presidential elections, organised by both countries during the month, supply an chance to test the sustainability of the prevailing regimes alternatively than a real chance to change power.
In Algeria, triumph is besides grand even for the winners
Few had illusions about the openness of Algerian elections. The election committee has deleted 13 of 16 candidates, and The remaining 2 rivals of the President-in-Office were frequently referred to as “figurers”. According to the first messages Abd al-Majid Tabbun was to get as many as 95 percent of the vote. There were immediately allegations of falsification of results, along with many reports of irregularities in individual districts and committees. The opposition and independent media besides suggested that the real attendance was much lower than the 48 percent reported by the authorities. On the basis of their own calculations and bottom-up data collection, various Algerian sources talked about a participation of 23 or little 18 percent. French government institutions unofficially placed the bar even lower, estimating that only every tenth Algerian took part in the vote.
In consequence to the wave of criticism, flowing from country and abroad, the votes were recalculated, which this time gave the consequence 84 % of the successful candidate. However, the attendance data (finally the voter participation was expected to scope 46 percent) was not importantly modified, suspiciously advanced as for the election boycotted by almost the full opposition. He was peculiarly mysterious. sudden increase in voting numbers after 5:00 p.m., contrasting with the declines reported earlier in relation to the elections 5 years ago.
Quite unexpectedly, the first authoritative results were questioned by the president himself and the President-elect himself. Abd al-Majid Tabbun pointed out the Algerian electoral commission's impreciseness and called for "data verification", most likely being the main liable for the aforementioned revision of the results, in practice reducing its victory. It besides led the another 2 candidates to exceed the 5% threshold, which would supply them with reimbursement of run costs and likely alleviate their criticism of the authorities. Tabbun may effort to minimize the negative effects of his own mistakes in this way, but it is equally possible for the president to sincerely displease his co-workers. It is speculated that the clumsy organization of elections and their discredit with specified unrealistic results proves tensions within the power camp, in which there are individuals willing to undermine the position of Algerian leader for individual gain.
Regardless of the confusion, the elections proved that the National Liberation Front (FLN) does not intend to release power from its hands. It has been held since the exile of French colonists from Algeria, though not without periodic crises. Definitely the most serious of them was the civilian war at the turn of the century, erstwhile after the election triumph of extremist Islamists (weakened FLN allowed free elections) the military conducted a coup d'état and prevented the transfer of power at the expense of 150 000 dead in the Algerian conflict. Although the protests of 2019 and 2020 were very mild against this background, it is possible to get the impression that president Tabbun is inactive sitting on a powder keg, and the election image failure has not improved his position.
Tunisia is not an election, but a plebiscite
In Tunisia, we are one more time faced with a trilateral duel in which, among the counter-candidates of the President-in-Office, we are improbable to find anyone who can actually endanger him. The rivals of Su'ajjid are Zouhair Maghzaoui, leader of the secular and socialist People's Movement, and closer to the liberal centre of Ayachi Zammel. respective another politicians, including the main opposition leaders, were prevented from taking part in the elections, recognising their candidacy as not gathering formal requirements.
As a substance of fact, shortly before Zammel's run was officially launched, he was detained on charges of falsifying electoral records. This will not make his name vanish from the ballots, but his conflict for votes is importantly impeded. In addition to expanding arrests of opponents, on the agenda in Tunisia is violations of the independency of courts and restrictions on freedom of the press. Su’ajjid's surroundings decide who can run the election, who goes to jail, and who gets the attention of the biggest media.
All this makes it hard to talk about democratic presidential elections – the winner is well known and the question remains only how many votes Kajs Su'ajjid can number on. It is surely intended to halt the downward trend, as seen in each subsequent vote. While half of Tunisians participated in the 2019 election, only 30% of citizens expressed their opinion on the presidential task in the 2022 Constitutional referendum.
Shortly thereafter, a complete farce proved to be organised according to the fresh rules of parliamentary elections, in which only 1 in 10 voters voted. Repeating a akin consequence in a vote on 6 October would be a major blow to the comparatively fresh Su’ajjid regime. Nevertheless, ending his regulation by electoral means does not seem possible at this point – the camp of power has invested besides much in taking over the full state for itself.
This means that long-established as a model for the Tunisia region is on the way to the complete burial of the Arabian Spring. president Su’ajjid has already replaced the democratic and progressive constitution with a much more authoritarian project, and now he is utilizing it by arranging the closest presidential elections. However, Algeria has shown that even a structured vote can end in the collapse of the ruling camp, further weakening citizens' low assurance in the authorities. Any subsequent re-election will be more hard for Tabgun if he decides to prosecute his post, as in 2019 his applicant for the 5th word of his predecessor.
In Tunisia now protests against unfair elections continue, and their consequence may consequence in an even stronger eruption of social discontent. The Maghreb seems to number time until the next revolution, but as the latest past of the region has shown, harder than (and not so easy) overthrowing the reigning government may be to prevent another autocrat from coming.
