August 6th Karol Nawrocki will be sworn in as president of Poland, which will start an highly hard and turbulent period not only for Donald Tusk's government but besides for the Polish state in general.
The personnel composition of his associates already indicates that Nawrocki intends to go with the government to a frontal start. The future head of the president's cabinet, Paweł Chief of Staff, may look like a cultural young man, but in fact he is simply a PR expert, including the black one. Undoubtedly, he will come up with many amazing plays that will be a large problem for the government.
Prof. Sławomir Cenckiewicz as the head of the National safety Bureau is already a character that absolutely hates the current government coalition, especially the leaders of its largest party. Co-author of the series Reset and books Deal., which he wrote with tv star Republika, Michał Rachon, already has prosecution charges for declassified defence plans from the times of the PO-PSL rule. Cenckiewicz did so as head of the Military Historical Bureau. For Cenckiewicz, Tusk and Sikorski are traitors who got along with the Russians. And even if his first statements looked conciliative, it's apparent that it's just eye soap.
The President's Chancellery will not be headed by Przemysław Czarnek, who would be like a ram to the government. However, having a immense chance of succeeding Kaczyński, Czarnek chose to proceed his career in the organization as her vice president.
Zbigniew Bogucki, a typical of the young generation of PiS politicians, will so take part in this function, i.e., like Chiefernaker, although eloquent and intelligent, but besides very feisty. Especially due to the fact that they want to show themselves to members and electorate of the party, presently in the temper of a vendetta in Tusk, Sienkiewicz, Gierty and Bodnar. Moreover, the first statements by Bogacki – for example about Sikorski – indicate that love will not be here. On the contrary.
Army superior, brain of diplomacy
There are 3 main areas where Karol Nawrocki will push with the government.
The first is national defense. The president is formally Head of Armed Forces, but in a time of peace this function is exercised by the head of the MON. Even then, however, the president has crucial tasks to execute – specified as general nominations. Nawrocki will so block them – just like Andrzej Duda, the ambassadorial nominations to force on MON the filling of any of the key positions in the army with his people and the creation of a faithful faction of officers. Besides, he can always effort to take over the army completely, for example by convincing that we are not in a time of peace, due to the fact that Russia and Belarus wage a hybrid war against us.
The second seems unlikely, but the mystery of the polyquinel is that Nawrocks are a man of force and ability to do anything. In this case, any hope is given by the fact that the current head of MON Władysław Kosiniak-Kamish has lived well with the presidential palace so far, and of all the coalitions, the PSL is the closest ideaally to the PiS. Politically, too, as proved by not entirely secret meetings of Michał Kamiński with Adam Bielan. This does not change the fact that the very very real possible of politicising the army, and even introducing polarization, is dark enough.
The second area is abroad policy. Undoubtedly, Nawrocki will monopolize contacts with Americans whose current administration has good relations with the Law and Justice, but with the Polish government it is completely out of the way. The first possible dispute will be the cast of the U.S. Ambassador position, where the government wants to cast the hated in the PiS Bogdan Klich. He refused to agree to this even much more average Andrzej Duda.
The same thing may not seem circumstantial in itself, due to the fact that in Polish political practice it was assumed that the president dominates in contacts with Americans – even due to the fact that the president is the head of government in Washington. Nawrocki, however, is able to incite Washington against the government, which may be all the more effective, as Donald Trump or Pete Hegseth are besides erratic. And arguing Poland with the US, our main safety guarantee, would be highly dangerous.
Besides, we might have a second installment called chair wars, In another words, the president – erstwhile Kaczyński – with the Prime Minister – present again Tuski – dispute over who represents Poland at the EU summits. In theory, this dispute has already been resolved by the Constitutional Court, granting this function to the government, but the Law and Justice has already shown that it treats the judgments of the Constitutional Tribunal selectively. Besides, statements Bogucki's Zbigniew for Onet shows that there will besides be any pushovers in this case. As a consequence, Poland's position in the EU is weakened.
Karol Nawrocki threatens to fulfill his promises
Third area Nawrocki's destructive actions will fill the Sejm with draft laws – especially taxation ones. Karol Nawrocki symbolically signed a contract with his constituents, in which he promised, among another things, far-reaching taxation cuts. Against the background of the another 2 areas of destruction, this may seem trivial. This is not the case, however, due to the fact that these laws would be devastating to the budget.
Nawrocki's taxation promises concern almost all key taxes. He announced a simplification in the basic VAT rate from 23 to 22 percent. This would not be harmful in itself if it were built up with PIT increases. VAT is simply a harmful and unjust tax, as it weighs the least earners to the top extent. At the same time, however, VAT is the main foundation of the Polish state budget – usually liable for over 1 3rd of the revenues. However, the PIT Nawrocki taxation does not supply for increases – on the contrary.
First of all, it announces the submission of a bill expanding the amount free for parents raising at least 2 children to PLN 140 1000 for each individual – i.e. for couples together to PLN 280 thousand. Moreover, it will besides include couples holding children of adults up to 25 years of age if they learn. Pro-family relief is besides intended to cover businesses that account for liner tax, who presently cannot benefit from the free amount in exchange for their privilege.
The next 2 announcements in the PIT taxation are to increase the second threshold from PLN 120 to PLN 140 1000 and to rise the general tax-free amount to PLN 60 1000 per year, which would mean "help" to the government in the implementation of 1 of its promises. In particular, this second proposal will be devastating for the budget. In addition, it intends to force the abolition of the alleged Belka tax, i.e. capital income tax, for investments worth up to PLN 140 thousand. The second will be comparatively least felt for the budget, but will mainly scope people reasonably well placed.
President of all (rich) Poles
Most of Nawrock's proposals will go to those who gain well. Their impact on the gross of the individual groups estimated CenEA analytical centre. The benefits of the proposals to families with children will already be highly uneven. The lower 60% of the population will receive little than a 100 PLN per month, with the poorest 30% of these benefits being completely traceable. The next 3 decibels (7.8 and 9) will receive little than PLN 200 per month, but at least 100. For this, 10% of the wealthiest households will receive little than PLN 400 per month.
The full Nawrocki proposal in the PIT – raising the second threshold (but not raising the general free amount) – for 90% of the population will have precisely the same consequences as described above. The difference will be in the case of 10% richest, as their benefits will be little than PLN 600 per month.
The full package of solutions defined by the authors as “Nawrocki-PIT” will cost PLN 19.1 billion. The lower in terms of income of 50% of households in Poland will be PLN 2.5 billion. Meanwhile, to the top 20% will flow from the budget of PLN 12 billion, of which as much as 9 billion only to 10% of the wealthiest houses in Poland. In another words, almost half of the budget costs of these curiosal proposals will be to 1 tenth of the richest Poles and Poles.
Other calculation showed the Ministry of Finance. According to the MF, the cost of pro-family promises of Nawrocki would cost the budget PLN 29 billion, of which as much as 19 billion would go to 10% of the wealthiest. Additionally, the MF separately calculated the cost of raising the threshold to PLN 140 1000 and reducing the basic VAT rate to 22 percent. Each of them would amount to PLN 8 billion. The full budget costs calculated by MF would so amount to about PLN 45 billion.
However, to calculate the burden on public finances through family-friendly solutions and to rise the second threshold of the PIT better approach with a distance. Indeed, the MF most likely has more accurate data than CenEA, but it can besides be assumed that it has adopted specified parameters in order to accomplish as much as possible. However, even if we add the costs calculated by the CenEA centre (PLN 19 billion) to the budgetary failure given by MF as a consequence of the VAT reduction, which seems to be true, we are talking about an amount of PLN 27 billion.
Society welcomes demolition with delight
Meanwhile, both studies do not take into account another, highly costly change, which was announced by Karol Nawrocki. We are talking about raising the general tax-free amount from PLN 30 to PLN 60 thousand. Technically, this is not Karol Nawrocki's proposal, but the president-elect announces the submission of specified a task as the implementation of 1 of the 100 particulars promised by KO in 2023.
Impact of this action on public finances in 2026 estimated the recently created Ministry of Finance and Economy. The amount of PLN 52.5 billion, which would, however, be spread about halfway between the state budget and local government funds.
At the same time, they would besides lose NGOs, as their revenues would fall due to the yearly transfer of 1.5% taxation to them of part of citizens. Nawrocki's last 1 would besides be pleased, due to the fact that his environment with most NGOs is not on the way. Just remember the joy of the right hand taking backing from the USAID.
In total, the failure of public finances from the aforementioned announcements would amount to between PLN 79.5 and 97.5 billion. specified an amount would be destructive to the state and local governments. However, Nawrocki is very happy to destabilise Polish public institutions, as its main aim is to overthrow the current government agreement. The destabilization of the finances of the largest agglomerations would most likely besides welcome it, as most non-righteous politicians regulation there.
For the government, facing these draft laws will be very problematic, as they will be socially popular. Poles always receive very affirmative plans for taxation reductions, as well as support for families with children, even if they have late assumed them little and less.
The task of raising the universal amount of the free Nawrocka will describe as the realization of 1 of the run promises of the coalitions, which will be embarrassing for her in two. Thus, the majority of the ruling will gotta conflict not only to veto its own laws, but besides to reject popular presidential projects. At least in the second matter, the pro-state instinct is not lacking.
