The governing Civic Coalition was abruptly at the centre of the political earthquake – in the latest IBRiS poll of 23-24 June, its support fell to just 25.8%, which means as much as 7.6-point reunion against 33.4% recorded in late May.
Law and Justice were again at the forefront of the ranking with 30.5% (a decline of 1.7 points) and the controversial Confederation remained at 16.8% (a slight decrease of 17.1%). The Sejm would besides be joined by the Left with 6.1% (growth with 5.0%) and the Confederation of the Polish Crown with 5.1%. Apart from the parliament, Poland 2050 (4.6 %), the PSL (4.0%) and full (3.9%) remained, and 3.2 % of the respondents inactive could not decide on any party.
Such a drastic outflow of voices from the ruling camp is hard to explain only natural fluctuations of moods – this is the consequence of cumulative failures in keeping social and economical promises. Although KO has power in both parliament and key local governments, its resolution programs have proved disappointingly unambiguated. Inflation inactive bites the wallets of Poles, wellness services are inactive limping, and investments – from turn to access to housing – are stuck in bureaucratic procedures.
Imageally, KO sinks under the weight of its own contradictions. On the 1 hand, the government promises dynamic reforms, on the another hand, each subsequent task lands in the Court or is blocked by interior coalition friction. Communication chaos, permanent leaks and common grievances between leaders only deepen the conviction that the ruling organization deals with itself alternatively of the real problems of citizens. Roman Giertych's actions, which are besides criticized by the people of the power camp, are not helping either.
Critics besides point to staff shortages: KO has not discovered any fresh faces capable of convincing voters for another term. Instead, we see repetitive conflicts of erstwhile promoters that discourage even existing supporters. As a result, any electorates turn to the Confederation, tempted by its rhetoric, or test the Confederation of the Polish Crown, which in its national-conservative offer presents itself as a "fresh alternative" to the ossified centre.
Without immediate acceleration of reforms and a clear, convincing message, the Civic Coalition could rapidly lose control. The increasing support for opposition PiS and extremist groups shows that voters will no longer forgive promises without coverage. If the government does not translate the declaration into real action – especially in the area of public prices and services – the poll decline will turn into a permanent erosion of support and the Civic Coalition will no longer be the country's main political force.
