Just like in a year ago Population, we did not want to measure the rulers – this is what the press and experts do – but to learn how the governance and behaviour of the opposition influenced the moods and attitudes in society. They are usually ahead of time and can announce changes in support, and so besides another processes on the political stage.
We besides took into account the opinions of Poles about presidential elections. We present the full 11 besides reflecting the most crucial findings of the survey and group interviews that we conducted with each of the electorates. These are:
1. present the populists would win
2. Civil Coalition And the Confederacy gains fanatical voters
3. Selective liberalism KO and selective conservatism PiS
4. evidence flow of electorates — demolition The 3rd Way
5. Confederation on the way to 20% support
6. The PiS does not lose the voters of the “Cinical”
7. More and more acceptable affairs
8. The leadership crisis on Left And in the 3rd Way
9. recognition crisis with government
10. What Poles See in Prison
11. Trzaskowski on the road to the presidency
1. They'd win today. POPULATIONS
In a country with utmost polarization, elections are won by a better than opponent to mobilize their voters, due to the fact that fewer can be taken from the another side. So how are the Poles elected a year later?
The assurances of those surveyed about how many they would go at the time of conducting the polls to the election, due to the fact that they always go much little numerous, are empty words, unless we can interpret them in time. Currently, the willingness to participate in the elections is declared by nearly 2⁄3 respondents, of which 56% are powerfully convinced that they would participate in the elections. 33% say they wouldn't vote, and only 2% don't know what they would do.
These are results akin to our erstwhile measurements carried out at a time erstwhile the voting position was distant. Nevertheless, the voter turnout in Poland has it against itself that it is increasing importantly in poll declarations before and after the vote. It falls on election Sundays. To estimation the real result, you request to check what their erstwhile declarations looked like. In the survey before the European Parliament elections, which we conducted at the Institute of Political Criticism, as well as this time, with Ipsos, the determination to participate declared 48 percent of the respondents. Real attendance, however, amounted to 40.65 percent. Our another pre-election polls were more or little similar.
If we assumed that we were dealing with a akin gap and this time, it means that at the minute the urn would go around 47–48% of the eligible and would be 1 of the lowest attendances in the parliamentary elections of the last 20 years. The record, almost 75% voter mobilization would fall by over 1⁄3 over the year and this best shows the scale of electoral demobilization we are dealing with.
The motivation to vote is the greater, the worse people measure the situation in the country (especially in the area of democracy and the regulation of law), and the thoughts of events in Poland are accompanied by negative emotions. The percent of those who want to vote is advanced (73%) among those for whom the Law and Justice are a organization of first choice or who sometimes argue on political issues with friends or household members (71%).
As expected by the vote, the age of respondents (67 percent among people after 40 and 60 percent among younger people) is related. The same cannot be expected of others today. This clearly indicates what kind of electorate would stay at home this time: precisely those who decided on the result of the October elections. Thus: young women, young women and middle-aged women, residents and in peculiar residents of large cities, supporters and supporters of democratic parties, hoping to meet electoral promises, including women's rights.
No wonder that in specified a situation the election consequence would be diametrically different from the consequence of the vote in 2023. On October 15, it would so be only a deviation from the standard populist norm, not a breakthrough. In a country, but not in a society.
How are the votes of support for individual parties distributed today?
Support for individual political parties
On Civil Coalition Wants to vote 28 percent – this means the difference in relation to the Law and Justice (30 percent) within the limits of statistical mistake – theoretically it could be KO in the first place in the ranking with a tiny advantage over the Law and Justice, which would not, however, turn the defeat of the democratic camp into success, due to the fact that the Confederacy has just caught up together with the support of the fresh Left and 3rd Way. And everything says it's going to grow, which is lower. In addition Among those who do not know who to vote for, the PiS supporters prevail. The negative results for the camp of power, which we will present in the next part of the report, are consistent with the quantitative results.
2. CITIZENS’ COALITY AND CONFEDERATION
The persons who identified the political organization as a organization of first choice were responsible.
Numerous studies in the last decade, besides ours, showed that KO (and earlier PO) has an electorate alternatively poorly attached to the party. The most commonly said was "minor evil" or "anti-PiS", which was expected to item the blurry identity of the party, erstwhile neoliberal and conservative, later evolving towards liberal, and on the another hand the mediocre recognition of voters with the party.
KO's binder was PiS. present we can alternatively say about the government that its binder is PiS (which we will show below), but not about the civilian Coalition. The breakthrough on the road to building a strong recognition with the organization and election mobilization on October 15, 2023 was first and foremost Donald Tusk and his activity in the election campaign. A politician who long had a advanced negative electorate showed that this could be overcome and give the second life to the organization he had assumed 2 decades ago. Thus KO can boast present what distinguished PiS, a strong root in society, and thus an iron base of voters. However, it is even more amazing that the same electoral base was built by the Confederacy, which has so far been described as an inconsistent constellation of various environments.
In detail, it looks like this:
- Law and Justice proceed to stand out from another parties with advanced interest (55%) of the iron electorate, including as much as 33 percent of those who, behind the organization of Jarosław Kaczyński, are ready to "go into the fire". They most likely moved from TVP Info to tv Republika overnight. It is primarily voters of 60 and older: in this group the percent of iron electorate is 10 times higher than in younger age categories.
- KO enjoys the same consequence (although it clearly has little of these most fanatical voters, which can be explained by the fact that it is not a organization questioning the full political order, beating the 3rd Republic, or emotionally influencing the rhetoric of war – although Donald Tusk started talking about "a fighting democracy", decently sensing the emotion of his iron electorate).
- However, the Confederacy becomes the absolute leader (62%), if we combine voters identifying with our organization to a very large and large extent.
- The 3rd Way Electorate clearly differs from the others in this respect. Only 7% of voters feel very much connected to it, and all 3rd (34%) feels rather tiny or very small. PSL voters identify with their party, not the 3rd Way sign. Simon Holown's organization is besides fresh to be the basis for building political identity. He participates in the coalition with a more expressive PSL and less and less groups connect, as demonstrated by political practice (or deficiency of it).
- That's good. Third Way voters to another parties; if the trend observed so far was to continue, it would primarily be a transition to KOs and, on the another hand, to the Confederation.
3. SELECTIVE LIBERALISM KO AND SELECTIVE CONSERVATION OF THE WISE.
In group interviews, PiS supporters powerfully emphasize the dream of strong, sovereign and modern Poland, with extended infrastructure (CPK, atomic power plant), catching up with the most developed countries in Europe.
– I would like Poland to be the leading country in Europe. So we can catch up with the Germans, the French, so we don't gotta go to the Saxons, we're being treated personally. To have a strong army, a well-guarded border and a good social policy.
– I would add reformed wellness care.
– To be as self-sufficient as possible.
– So we can make good money so we can make life plans. To make Poland modern.
It is incorrect to view the PiS electorate as 1 who rejects modernity as specified and does not desire progress. Already researched by Maciej Gdula from 2017 Good change in the City showed that the electorate of the PiS saw Jarosław Kaczyński as modern and western, social transfers, like 500 plus, as a step towards the Western European standard. Our investigation confirms that.
When we examined emotions related to the current situation in Poland, it turned out that supporters of the Law and Justice organization much more frequently than others said about anger, frustration, anger and fear. These emotions have the power to mobilise to fight and to participate in possible elections.
What kind of Poland in 20 years do the Warsaw voters of the Civic Coalition want? Świecka, progressive, green, with the right to abortion and matrimony equality, renewable energy sources, free transport, clean air and greenery. At the same time, which may surprise at first sight, it is to be a country without Ukrainians and illegal immigrants, without "social for patus", "without pilfers".
They want a ‘state that is 1 of the leaders of the European Union’ whose ‘inhabitants can afford to buy apartments’. The liberalism of KO voters is selective. It can be affirmed against the rights of 1 social group (women) and discriminating another (e.g. refugees, immigrants). There is no shortage of hatred language, though it is little present than in the PiS electorate. We showed it more in Population.
Poland of your dreams in 20 years what is different from Poland today?
– I'll be direct, this is Poland without Ukrainians.
Yeah, I'll add something here. It is Poland without illegal immigrants, without those from the mediate East, from Africa, without them all.
– And no social!!!
– But plus women's rights.
- Yes, I agree.
- matrimony for gay couples.
– Clean air, access to green.
– Higher wages, better conditions for entrepreneurs.
- Free transport.
- Tolerance.
– And respect for another man plus tolerance in all field.
- Yes, in all field, I agree.
– Without divisions, due to the fact that erstwhile a tragedy happens in our country, you can be close for 2 months, everyone walks together, hugs, sings.
– I imagine Poland as 1 of the leaders of its [EU] countries.
– With renewables and inactive low unemployment.
– With the anticipation for any usually working man to buy an flat or house.
– The availability of apartments is very important.
– In PRL, a man was given an flat and could live, and developed professionally.
– Now he has to take credit.
– If they give it to him.
And then they bought these apartments from you.
If elections were held during the period of study, the 3rd power in parliament would be Confederation. The Confederates have already doubled their public support from autumn 2023, and the current poll results are close to top organization ratings Bosaka and Mentzen from the past. However, this time the increase in votes has a very different character and should not be underestimated as a "review from the past".
Support for the Confederation best explains the age and sex of voters. In the group of people before the age of 40, this group enjoys the highest support, among the 20-year-olds even declassifying rivals (37 percent support among those who want to vote in this age group, the second Civic Coalition – 23 percent). Every another (!) voter – A man before 40 (and only 1 in 9 women) supports the Confederacy. Poland, designed by young men, would look diametrically different from Poland according to young women.
The Confederacy had specified advanced results last spring. Then for a minute she attracted a "not her" electorate – young liberal men and women who were lured mainly by taxation issues. This temporary fresh Confederate electorate consisted of people who were besides pro-EU, pro-climatic, tolerant and liberal world-viewed to support Bosaka and Braun's party. erstwhile the Confederacy became loud, the media looked at the parties and began to match the controversial statements of the leaders. The fresh voters of the organization figured out who they were supporting, and the Confederacy ratings returned to square one. That doesn't mean the neoliberal bait can't work again, which we'll show you below.
This time increase in support of Bosaka organization and Brauna can be much longer than last year. The Confederacy is gathering voters present who, for various reasons, were disillusioned with the Law and Justice during the eight-year regulation of this formation. 3rd Way voters besides pass to the Confederacy, which proved to be partially a seasonal party. They are presently looking for a more explicit organization in articulate views. It is so a conservative electorate, consistent with the values of the Confederate, which will not leave it so easily, unless the Confederate refrains from radical, embarrassing and discrediting statements in the eyes of fresh voters.
The Bosaka and Mentzen organization voters want Poland strong, free and secure: “strong boundaries. No bullet can fly in, no individual can get in." In their opinion, refugees are threatened by safety and freedom ("the emergence in road accidents is their fault") and the European Union: "There is simply a request for greater freedom, due to the fact that the ban on entering Warsaw by car, building houses as the European Union wants, is no freedom. Not everyone can afford it." Poland is expected to stay in the Union, but under conditions specified as those of the time we entered it (we are not to be a net payer; we do not gotta meet the requirements for relocation of refugees, do not introduce the Green Deal, etc.).
How do they view the current situation in the country?
- All are affected by advanced inflation. Many microcompanies have fallen, the larger ones have managed. advanced prices. Butter, bread, eggs for horrendous sums.
- The housing market. Friends in Europe, where the euro is, pay little for rent than we do. Many young people would like to have an apartment, but how?
– We utilized to be afraid of getting punched in the face by a kibol, and now it may turn out that the kibols will save you erstwhile an immigrant with a knife jumps at you.
– The rent prices or the acquisition of apartments are from outer space, but it's a request law.
– The acquisition prices are twisted, not just rental. Immigrants, not only from Ukraine, but besides Bangladesh. It's getting dangerous.
Emotions that her voters feel, reasoning about the current situation in Poland, are a mix of bitterness, anger, frustration and fear, as with PiS voters. A mixture not only highly explosive, but besides mobilizing to engage politically. Both parties, which are identified as alternate to the ruling coalition and are able to win the majority, have a number of supporters motivated to go to the election.
If we were to briefly describe Left, that's her female (although we're about to find out not everyone). However, while the Left had previously been the first choice of the youngest women, she fell second in this group, with a clear distance to the KO. However, the change in proportion does not consequence from so many passing from the Left to the Donald Tusk party. They have withdrawn from political life. This is the price for the Left to enter the ruling coalition, which did not satisfy young adequate women. Many of them, who had cast their first election in their lives, felt so disappointed by the attitude of the government coalition that this time they preferred to stay home.
It is besides actual that 30-year-olds, compared to 20-year-olds, choose the left-wing sign much less. Left voters and voters are not just students from large cities demanding the right to abortion and tolerance for LGBT people. They are besides residents and residents of smaller urban centres. For example, leftist voters in Włocławek, where we conducted our qualitative research, remind of another traditionally leftist demands alongside women's rights.
What are the dreams of election and left-wing voters in the middle-sized city? About a society where "people are more kind and smiling due to the fact that they have more time for household and little work". They make it clear that they reject the "fuck culture". If you want to work due to the fact that you want more, that's your business. You don't want, you don't, and you work the essential minimum. And of course, so that the PiS doesn't regulation again.
Work.
- Work for good money.
– Payable for a good job.
– Not to work all day for a penny.
So you can see that while the most characteristic subject for supporters and supporters of the Left is women's rights, the second is Work. They believe that benefits of kind 800 plus should only be paid to active persons (which fundamentally calls for electorates of all parties). They have seen the expansion of transport infrastructure in fresh years, the construction of flat blocks for rent, but they besides talk about higher cost of living, longer queues for doctors and advanced prices of drugs in pharmacies. The most crucial emotions expressing their attitude towards the situation in Poland are: helplessness, sadness and resignation.
Third Road has the most profiled electorate. If one-person economical activity or agriculture is conducted, it is with a much higher probability that the PSL and Poland 2050 will vote for PSL than for another parties. It is 1 of the fewer alongside the conservative values of the attributes that brings the PSL and Poland 2050, i.e. parties forming the 3rd Road. There are many more features that separate between the electorates of both parties.
For supporters PSL Poland's future is to be calm in the first place, which is simply a proverb: Peaceful, happy countryside. Power is open to people and focused on gathering their needs. Society should not be marked by social divisions and political conflicts. Emotions that feel erstwhile they think about the current situation are uncertainty, disappointment with unfulfilled promises (especially about stopping the influx of inexpensive food from Ukraine), fear about the condition of the economy.
Disappointed?
- Yeah.
– They fought so hard that there were not to be these products from Ukraine. But now it's the same, but quietly, as a farmer, I know it. Why do raspberries buy all another day? due to the fact that it's from the east, they'll mix it with ours, and we have a Polish raspberry.
– What kind of oilseed rape is that?
– I don't know why they bring that food from Ukraine. The only thing that can do is to lower the prices, let the people rejoice, due to the fact that bread, oil is simply a small cheaper. And no 1 realizes how it's done, sprays, etc. They will finish Polish agriculture, there will be no Polish grain, there will be addiction.
In turn voters Poland 2050 They want a tolerant Poland, with a unchangeable legal system, a separation of the Church from the state, with women's rights, including legal abortion. A country where public services work well, with wellness and education at the forefront. Their accompanying emotions include disappointment, helplessness, frustration, regret, hopeful hopes (“and specified emptiness, we want it were, and that is not there”). They are disappointed by the political situation and the deficiency of changes in the cultural and economical sphere:
– Talking about household being just a man and a woman, and everything else is simply a deviance, it's drama, it's intolerance. It's starting again to teach kids that this 1 is cool, and this 1 is, and I don't like it very much, and what the shell will soak erstwhile it's young, it's obvious. That's what I'd start with, wellness care and legal matters. In fact, everything would gotta change.
– If we were not in the EU, we would have been in black "d" due to the fact that the PiS organization has withdrawn us. European countries are developing after covid. I have a household in the Netherlands, mom and brother, the Netherlands has received immense aid in the form of low-interest loans and invest in modern technologies, in IT, in industry, in fresh jobs. A man, a possible taxpayer, is crucial there. With us, the Law and Justice stole millions and gave us gold and withdrew us in all respect. We request people with knowledge, competent people. It's being fixed now, but it takes time.
These voters powerfully believe that Poles are industrious and resourceful, even more than another Europeans. In Poland – as they say – all average Kowalski builds this modern Europe, here, down here, not through politicians. Which leads them to uncertainty that we request politicians and governments at all. In turn, if this disappointment grows, it can bring any closer to the organization that wants to radically limit the influence of the state, the Confederation. Note that Simon Holovnia, which increasingly has the image of a conservative and conservative policy, ceases to correspond with the expectations of its own electoral base, much more liberal worldview and waiting for faster changes, and in any case to participate in them.
Conclusion: Poles frequently measure the government, without being aware of its limited ability to change laws due to the blockades left by the Law and Justice Office: a veto or a mention to the Constitutional Court of the President's Act, left by the authority of the crisis of public spending, legal dualism. The "Tamta" power was "fast" due to the fact that it did not substance to the law, had slow president, broke the regulations of the Sejm, spent public money outside the budget through a number of specially created funds.
The settlements would be symmetrically fast as changes in law or illegal actions of the governments of the United Right, but they are not due to the fact that they must be lawful. besides conducted by the institutions to a large degree by the Law and Justice Offices, which have been destroyed by professionals and planted almost exclusively by people subject to 1 organization (prosecution, courts, companies of the State Treasury, etc.) or which are inactive being dug through deliberately adopted law (Constitutional Tribunal, ultimate Court, National Media Council, National Broadcasting and tv Council). The government may presume that the most politically oriented realize these obstacles, but not that voters consider it. A chance to velocity up may come along with the presidential election, which we will deal with at the end of the report.
4. designation OF ELECTORATES — 3rd DRIVE
Nearly 1⁄3 (31%) of those declaring their willingness to vote in the upcoming elections would vote differently present than in the autumn. In our earlier reports, specified a scale of flows afraid processes calculated in years; now, 1 year after the last election, nearly 1 in 3 voters and 1 in 3 voters have changed their political sympathy. Additionally, nearly 11 percent of voters do not know who to vote for. In conclusion, many more than half of Poles and Poles would have acted completely different present than a year ago. This applies primarily to supporters and supporters of democratic parties.
Of the main political forces comparatively most disciplined is the Confederate electorate (61 percent of people voting for this organization in 2023 want to vote for it besides now) and the PiS (59 percent). In the case of the Citizen and Left Coalition, only all second of their 2023 voters would now like to confirm their choice. If, in the 3rd Polish Republic, the origin of the mandate to exercise power were polls and the current public opinion, alternatively than the result of the fresh democratic elections, the figures outlined above would mean far-reaching delegation of the ruling coalition.
Table 1. Flows of voters and electorates (all surveyed, baseline N=1008, percentages in rows to those making certain electoral decisions in 2023)[1]
Based on the data in the table above, respective observations can be made:
- PiS and the 3rd Road barely gain voters from another directions. The difference between the 2 electorates is that voters of the 3rd Way depart in various directions – to KO (7%), the Confederation (6%), and even the Left (4%), while the "unloyal" PiS voters only supply the Confederacy (6%).
Our PiS supporters, coming from a medium-sized city this time did not seem “blindly in love” with the organization and its leader. Half declared average and half declared strong recognition with the party. In the last election, everyone voted for the Law and Justice, but now half of them are between the Law and the Confederation. 2 people besides indicate PSL as a organization of second choice. What brings them closer to the Confederacy and distant from the Law and Justice? The Confederacy is besides a right-wing party, the most reluctant of immigrants, which they think will improvement “social” so that it is only for workers and tax-paying Poles. To the Law and Justice, they regret the scandals and the failure to meet electoral promises (e.g. the settlement of predecessors), the pumping of absurd Smolensk ideology and the individual of Antoni Macierewicz.
And why are you only on average?
– On average, due to the fact that I have quite a few regret for them, for example, about the scandals that you hear about now, a lot has come up. I have quite a few regret that PiS was seemingly anti-immigrant, and in fact quite a few immigrants were allowed in. That he didn't settle the erstwhile government, and he went with that slogan to the election. But I see the Law and Justice as the best alternate from what is on the political stage.
Similarly, on average, there is no better choice. But not everything they did is good. There are respective people who should get off the pedestal, e.g. Macierewicz, who should leave, spoil their PR.
– Similarly, I can no longer hear about the Smolensk bombing, I do not like that the PiS was working out with Father Rydzyk, the Church.
Conclusion? The Confederacy has its electoral base, which hardens and can number on fresh strength. This is simply a threat not only to liberal democracy, but besides to the Law and Justice. In a major organization crisis, a large proportion of voters may go to the Confederacy and support posts will begin to level out.
- After the Confederacy, fresh voters are most effectively attracted by the Civic Coalition (e.g. among the voters of the Left and 3rd Way), but they lose very many who are willing to stay home.
In fact, all of our group interviewers, who voted in favour of the 3rd Way in the last election, have a negative view of the PSL, have a second choice organization in the form of the Citizens' Coalition and Left, and powerfully distance themselves from the Law and Justice.
When asked about the perfect of politics they begin with Holowna, but like to look further, considering Tusk, Trzaskowski, and even erstwhile SLD leaders. Paweł Kukiz and Jarosław Kaczyński are the anti-model. Although voters are alternatively attached to their organization (declaring strong 4 on a scale of 1–5) and like its leader, they are equally powerfully identified with the government and believe that the perfect candidate for the full government coalition is Trzaskowski, and all parties should support it in the first round. It's a black powder for Simon Holown before the presidential election. It can be assumed that the election of Trzaskovsky as president will give him the chance to unify a democratic block comparable to what Donald Tusk now has: symbolic or with a greater commitment to (over)party president politics – real.
During the focus tests, the behaviour of the electoral and left-wing voters was symptomatic. Women representing 2⁄3 of our focus group in Włocławek in half of cases declared that they would besides stay at the Left this time:
– I voted for the Left too, arguments like any woman, and I have a daughter.
However, others were leaning towards the Civic Coalition due to the fact that they know that it besides advocates the introduction of the right to abortion, and is larger and more effective. They besides claimed that the candidate, and all the more so the candidate of the Left did not have a chance, and they would immediately vote for Trzaskowski.
The above mentioned phenomena are the gradual absorption by the Civic Coalition of coalition electorates of partners, i.e. Left and Poland 2050 (but no longer PSL). If only the PiS and the KOs stay on the stage, it may turn out that the attractiveness of the Confederation, which can already possibly draw voters from various directions, will increase even more.
In our investigation in Włocławek, for example, 2 young men voting for the Left voted in the last election to vote for the Confederate this time. This was explained by the fact that to the Left close to them worldviewally, but they are discouraged by any policies of this formation, while to the Confederates they are closer to economical and taxation issues. Reminds us of what we showed in Populationthat the Left has not the electorate that would like to have, that is, not social, but neoliberal (they hold it to the Left cultural issues). There is not much to which he refers, or social (maintains to the Law and Justice).
Martin, go ahead.
– In the erstwhile election, I voted for the Left. Now, if there were an election, I'd put a cross on the full card. But it utilized to be that I had a Confederate out back.
What drew you to this Confederacy?
– alternatively economical issues, due to the fact that I wanted to go on my own 100%, and there to take account of my own economical activity, which most political options alternatively treat as a stepmother.
What attracted you to the Left?
– All the worldview stuff.
But you're a small disappointed in the Left?
A little. There are surely besides people in the Left who caricaturely affect this party, e.g. Anna Maria Żukowska, whom I cannot perceive to personally.
[...]
Okay, Rafal?
I'm in the mediate of an utmost standard. I voted for Lewica, although unfortunately there are people there who annoy me, like the Żukowska mentioned by Marcin, cannot be listened to. Outside the Left, if I had to choose, it was the Confederate, but not the worldview [...] Just as they're yelling about taxation simplification today, it seems like I'm needed, too, and I run a club, and I know how much it takes to get everything to have hands and legs, me in that taxation angle.
- A noticeable drain of the autumn voters of the Left to the KO (9%) can be noted. Interestingly, they are mostly people who are 60 or even 70 years old, so they are completely left of the post-communist electorate, who has not yet passed his support on to the Tusk Party, and not, for example, younger women, who see more effective force in the Tusk and Trzask organization to guarantee the liberalisation of reproductive rights. This confirms the thesis that a large proportion of young left-wing voters did not change their views or political sympathy, but disappointed in the behaviour of the fresh government decided to exclude themselves from politics.
- A advanced percent of individual organization voters say that this time they will not vote; it is peculiarly advanced in the KO electorate and then the Left.
Observations on flows from and to individual parties are besides in force erstwhile analysis is narrowed to those who want to vote in the next elections.
5. CONFEDERATION ON THE ROAD TO 20 PROC. PARTY
The issue of flows of electorates is linked to the force of identifying voters with individual political signs. Traditionally for our investigation we have deepened this subject by asking all respondents whether a political organization is:
- which the responsive is likely to vote for (first choice party);
- the 1 he could vote for under certain circumstances (second choice party);
- one that will never vote for (rejected party).
The largest combined social scope is now Civil Coalition, which it wishes to vote for or in certain circumstances allows for vote – 53% of respondents. The KO is besides characterised by the comparatively low percent of people removing it from their electoral options (47%). specified a advanced ceiling of the Civic Coalition makes its strategy of gradually absorbing left and Poland 2050 electorates at least theoretically seem rational. In practice, reaching a full possible scope does not happen. Not only will the resilience of the PSL be on the way to this strategy, but besides the increased attractiveness of the Confederate in conditions of increased polarization of the PiS vs. KO. And KOs with the Confederacy of the ruling coalition will not create. Absorbing the Left and the 3rd Way can lead KO to where the PiS is today, or to a organization without coalition ability.
PiS ceiling is 45 percent. Compared to KO, a much smaller percent of people from outside the close group of voters allows voting for Jarosław Kaczyński's party. PiS besides has advanced – although not the highest – negative electorate (55%). This causes that shortly The Law and Justice cannot trust on self-government.
In the case of both main parties, a higher percent of respondents treat them as the main ones than the second parties.
Social coverage Confederations is almost as advanced as the PiS, but it treats this organization as the most crucial much less, due to the fact that 17 percent of respondents, and much more, due to the fact that 26 percent, let voting for it.
In case of Left and 3rd Way The basic electorate is only a tiny part (Levice – 25 percent, 3rd Road – about 15 percent) of the full electorate. The 3rd Way has a full ceiling almost as advanced as the Civic Coalition, the problem is that the Holow and Kosiniak-Kamisha Coalition does not give its sympathizers a good adequate reason to vote for it, alternatively than for another signs (mainly the Civic Coalition).
A akin challenge is characteristic of the Left – it has 40 percent in orbit, but 3⁄4 of this group believes that on the political phase there are better representatives of the same values and interests. The left besides has the largest negative electorate (up to 60%), which means an increase of 14 percent from our fresh research (April 2024, Population of populists). possibly the Left pays the price in this way for taking up crucial but polarising topics which it has not yet "delivered" (e.g. decriminalisation of abortion). Equally large increase in negative electorate (15%) noted the 3rd Road. Even in April, it could be recognized that it was “predicting well” (the successful launch of Simon Holown in the function of the Media Marshal of the Sejm), present it drifts in search of lost identity.
All respondents (N=1001) answered the question, regardless of whether they wanted to vote in the upcoming parliamentary elections.
Interesting and crucial from the point of view of the flow of electorates is to check who and how frequently they place second place voters of individual political parties. This may be an indication of how Poles' electoral support can make in the context of events that may happen in the future, specified as the disintegration of the 3rd Way or the exit of the Left from the ruling coalition.
This table shows any interesting phenomena:
Under certain circumstances, nearly 60% of the PiS voters could vote for the Confederation and vice versa. The common platform is Euroscepticism and moral conservatism. Both parties can play with these cards, trying to outbid themselves in the fight for voters. From this perspective, the inclusion of Solidarne Poland at a advanced price (places in the authorities of the parties and factions of European Conservatives and Reformists in the EP) in the PiS seems to be an apparent decision by Jarosław Kaczyński and is defensive (against the Confederacy) alternatively than offensive (as opposed to the government, the SP is even more pressing than the PiS).
At the minute we are faced with a situation in which the publicity of scandals and abuse of the Law and Justice of the European Union from the times of government causes The flow can be alternatively one-way, towards the Confederation. PiS voters asked in group interviews about their favourite policy most frequently point to Krzysztof Bosak from the Confederation. And Bosak should be the face of the Confederate if he is to attract voters.
Listen. There was Bosak, but no 1 talked about Mentzen.
- Mentzen's a small youtuber.
– He's so popular. present on YouTube, he's gonna pull up his videos, and he's the guy that I think somewhere out there has the attitude that if you don't have the money, then die under the bridge. Like in the States.
You think that's why he's not the character who should represent this organization due to the fact that he's hurting her?
– due to the fact that he's erratic. I mean... I mean, to feel specified superiority over others.
In your eyes, is it better for the Confederate if their candidate is Bosak?
– I'd be afraid to live in a country erstwhile Mentzen threw in all those ideas he's saying in theory. I'd like to see him put them into practice, right? And people, like, I don't know, older or infirm, would have had it very hard.
They talk of Jarosław Kaczyński with careful respect, but without enthusiasm, as individual very well-deserved, whose departure has been waiting for any time.
– Jarosław Kaczyński? You may not like him, but I value him for always saying what he thinks, oh yes!
– I besides value him... I value him in any way.
– He's a patriot, but I think... I think it's time he... should get off the stage.
However, the statements of Confederate supporters about the governments of the Law and the present clearly show where their sympathy is.
How do you measure the functioning of the current government? How much better is simply a government than the last one?
That 1 was better. He could do more if there were crises. If you needed a wall, they started working fast with a wall. As for the pandemic, shields were rapidly formed.
- Prosecution, the erstwhile government. This government spends besides much time clearing the erstwhile one. He should besides spend quite a few time on what needs to be done now.
– The erstwhile government worked, the current 1 is downplaying most of the stuff, cutting most of the projects, even the good ones.
– The actions of the erstwhile government stood at a much higher level. It was not always beneficial, but a fast reaction was characterized by the erstwhile government. Now there's a small inconspicuousness, besides long to make decisions. We request to decision fast.
– This government worked for Poles, Poland, and this government is very Polish.
Anything affirmative about the fresh government?
- No, I don't.
– due to the flood, he is more negatively judged.
How do you justice the government's consequence to the flood?
– The day before that, he fooled people. Everyone heard this “don’t panic.”
– The communicative changes in 1 day. That's the Coalition.
One can get the impression that the electorates of both parties are becoming increasingly acquainted with the future coalition government of PiS-Confederation.
If the coalition of PiS and Confederacy had a ruling majority, should the Confederacy co-create a government with PiS?
Depends on who gets in from the PiS. If there were young people who had an open head who wanted to cooperate, not just the old ones who burden their affairs, it would be possible.
– You'd think.
– Just so it's not an accessory to get most of the tickets.
The Confederacy would should be liable for something, something important.
Would she should be treated as a partner and influence?
- Yeah.
- As many as 2⁄3 KO voters could in certain conditions choose coalition partners, the 3rd Road or the Left. On the another hand, it is even better: the percent of voters of both parties, who let to vote for KO, reaches 90 percent! This shows far-reaching similarities in the perception of these groups by voters. He's getting stronger. – The Citizens' Coalition, which picks up the Left voters with progressive values, and the 3rd Way receives voters comparatively liberal worldview, discouraged by the coalition with the traditionalist PSL.
– The reserve organization is the PO, people who do quite a few good, think liberally and want to see Poland as a modern country.
I besides voted for Poland 2050. Would I vote today, too? It is hard to measure due to the fact that there is simply a coalition, it is hard to say something about each organization separately, is the PSL, which has turned out to be specified a pest, and in fact it has been for years, due to the fact that it deals with everyone to be and rule. The alternate is the civilian Coalition.
Basically, the electorates of both parties forming the 3rd Way increasingly dislike each another and look for options closer to them.
– I voted for PSL. Now, if it's not the PSL, then Holownia, he was a cleric, possibly he'll bargain less, possibly he'll think of something more normal.
– But he didn't show up as a marshal, showman, actors a little.
– This starting with Poland 2050 was a strategical procedure, the PSL itself would not enter parliament.
– Whenever there was research, the PSL was under the bar, and then they came in somehow. It's always been like I remember. He lost a lot in collaboration with the PSL Holovnia due to the fact that he's not a stand-alone party, it's an appetizer.
– PSL is simply a organization with traditions, and Hołownia is specified a modern piece.
No political experience.
PSL voters see that there are parties to which they are closer to ideally, but fear criticism that would fall on PSL for switching to the Law and Justice Party.
– surely the PSL is closer to the Law and the Confederacy than the rest, but to go to the another side?
– They'd be burnt to me.
– I'm certain they would.
– On average, it's not good to jump from flower to flower.
– That's how you change the viewer, no. As they said, they must endure.
Voters Undecided, who hesitate to vote for, the most tends to PiS (17%) and KO (15%). The 3rd is the Left, which is simply a organization of the first choice for 10% of the hesitant. In turn among demobilised voters (declaring that they will not vote) the Citizen Coalition has the highest support (the first choice organization for 29 percent of people in this group), the Law and Justice (clearly little due to the fact that 22 percent) and the Confederation (19 percent).
6. THE WORD DOES NOT LOST THE ‘CYNICAL’ SELECTION
We showed the ratio above all voters to individual parties. Now we'll do it. inside each of the electorates, so we'll show the voter's attitude to our party. In another words, we no longer ask all Poles and Poles what they think about each party, but we examine each of the electorates in terms of which electorates are made up and why they vote for this party.
Of the 3 main motivations: full conviction (the "fanatic" vote), the vote for the least evil (the "sceptical" vote) and the vote for individual benefit of this 3rd motivation we considered as a signal of transactional relation to the political organization (the "cinenic" vote). In exchange for certain advantages, specified an electorate is inclined to vote for a organization with which he disagrees.
Let's compare the current results with the April 2023 situation, and so from the period erstwhile the erstwhile United Right-wing ruling camp ruled:
- In the case of PiS, there were no major changes. It is inactive a political organization with the highest percent of the voter "Cinical". Why, if it is not the Law and Justice that decides on social benefits present and the KO has not lowered them? due to the fact that the Law and Justice on this substance inactive remains more credible as the 1 who started the breakthrough in social policy. In the spring of 2023 it was as much as 30% of the voters of this party, now even more, though within the limits of statistical mistake – 33%.
- However, in the electorate of the Civic Coalition there appeared a large database of voters completely devoted to it, i.e. voters with the full conviction that this organization is the best that could happen to Poland. "Fanastic" KO voters are no longer "Codziar" and Strong Together, but a much wider group. Above all, they anticipate to settle the PiS scandal and stay active. present it is already every another voter of this party. The Donald Tusk organization thus collects the fruits of the return of its leader and election triumph a year ago. Others, on the another hand, feel differently, although they stay with the KO – they are voters "sceptical" and there are 39 percent of them. A tiny number of "Cinical" voters may be due to the fact that KO, although not taking anything, has not yet had the chance to supply anything financially attractive. Or its voters, more resourceful, request little financial motivation.
- A somewhat perfect Confederate voters (from 32 percent to 39 percent) arrived and the percent of "cynic" decreased from 29 percent to 16 percent. In the case of the Confederacy, you can talk about transaction voters, due to the fact that the financial motivation here is the promise of a extremist taxation reduction. This composition of the electorate results from migration from the PiS of a large number of "sceptical" voters. They have so far voted for the Law and Justice, due to the fact that they thought that all another parties were even worse. Now, aware of the scale of abuse and irregularities during the reign of Jarosław Kaczyński, they decided that the Mentzen and Bosaka organization offered them a fairer right.
- In the electorates of the fresh Left and the 3rd Way, the motivation of "others are even worse" continues to prevail, and thus voting for lesser evil. The past of fresh years shows that skepticism is the weakest motivation to participate in elections and support his favorite, which further reduces the already faltered forces of both Tusk coalitions.
We illustrate the above thesis:
The fresh government, although many feared it, did not take the transfers we talked about, right? 800 plus and so on. There were specified fears.
– possibly for now.
That's enough. The fresh government introduced fresh benefits: grandmother's, widow's pension. What do you say? Is that a good thing? Is it bad?
– Usually, PiS would do that. due to the fact that it was the Law and Justice that proposed 800+, for example, raising, and kind of Platform... she continues this. It's continuing. He can't give it up. If Platform said we weren't doing it, she'd lose her success.
– Okay, but they could have won anyway, right? Well, I'm glad they didn't contact it. Good thing they didn't. But thanks to the Law and Justices, they didn't decision and they added fresh ones. They did it.
[...]
- Coalition, yeah, okay. Yes, and they just proceed what PiS started, criticizing of course, they gotta show their good side. But possibly a better continuation than a bad change, right? But I don't believe that.
– But erstwhile it comes to building a CPK and building a atomic power plant, they stop, right? They don't want it. They don't know what they want, after a media storm, they saw that the society was terribly displeased, they abruptly withdrew and they wanted to build CPK again. We don't truly know if they're gonna build it or not.
In fact, the same is said by the KO voters. Only that in their version, maintaining transfers and social programs is not so much a credit as PiS's fault. You can't retreat from them and you gotta give fresh ones.
It was threatened that erstwhile the PiS lost and the opposition came to power, it would end in social, the 800 plus program would end. Social programmes have not ended, and the fresh government has introduced fresh ones, like "grandmother". How do you justice that?
– I knew from the start they wouldn't take that social.
– It was specified a chase, I just think it was from the opposing party, but it was logical they wouldn't take it.
– People would be angry.
Before the presidential election?
[...]
– We've entered a dangerous spiral. No 1 in the government will want to take it off and they want to keep it, and that is why it is unchanged.
- Yes, exactly.
– And I hope they do something about it.
– I have children. Now it was the beginning of the year, I got an expedition for 2 of 300 PLN, due to the fact that the 3rd is in kindergarten. But it's nothing. A daughter in simple school gets books, a large idea, a boy in advanced school, and books are a mistake. boy in zero, 1 book to zero 50 PLN costs.
Why does the government let specified prices? I was prepared for this due to the fact that I know that all year it's September and school starts. People deal with it, but it's a immense expense at once.
– That's right. I am opposed to social in the form that we give 800 zł, but I am in favour that books until the end of advanced school are free for children and youth.
– Or meals for children at school should besides be financed.
Conclusion: The coalition could take over the PiS's cynical electorate if it launched further transfers. So much political calculation, but different from the calculation resulting from government budgetary capacity. It is possible that the Civic Coalition, erstwhile pressured by successive parliamentary elections, will effort to outbid the achievements of the Law and attract a large group of “cinenic” voters in Poland. A liable economist would most likely say: "You can't, due to the fact that "us" can't afford this (but this "us" is never defined). In view of the quality of government and the losses of the state resulting from the scandal and anti-EU policy, the cost of taking distant the PiS cynical voters may, however, prove to be worthwhile, even in purely economical calculations. At the return of populism, Poland would lose even more.
7. AFERIA CORAZ MORE ACTEPTIAL
This could mean that the electorate of Law and Justice would be more inclined than voters of another political parties to accept the various types of ethical violations and advanced standards that should apply in the public service. Is that so? We asked the respondents about the tendency to forgive the politicians of their parties for all kinds of misconceptions. Here are the key conclusions:
- The electorates of all political parties are dominated by people who are unwilling to accept corruption and wrongdoing committed for the sake of the political organization and for individual benefit.
- Less severe is the "dangerous incompetence" in the sphere of policy, although in this case more than half of the voters of all parties consider this to be a disqualifying situation for policy.
- The issue of marital betrayal is treated rather differently – but for the Confederate electorate, where almost half would not be willing to forgive specified an offence to the politician of their party, the another voters would most frequently be willing to overlook it.
- The Electorate of Law and Justice has the top tendency to accept inappropriate behavior. The voters of Jarosław Kaczyński's organization are ready to forgive political corruption, which is illegal usage of public funds for the sake of the party. However, this is not straight due to the fact that the "transaction" motivation is so common among the PiS voters. The level of acceptance for various crimes and faults of politicians is even higher in the most perfect part of the PiS electorate ("I vote with full conviction due to the fact that I believe in what my organization says").
To realize this well, let us look at a longer passage of the conversation with the voters of the Law and Justice organization in Lublin about the scandal of the government of Matthew Morawiecki.
The settlement of erstwhile governments is ongoing. What do you think?
– There is simply quite a few misinformation that misleads voters of a given party. It's hard to tell what's truly going on. What do we know here to judge?
You don't believe this has happened?
– Information about hiring friends, family, in all organization it happens. I don't mind. It's the facts that matter.
– For example, what's not to say, Orlen has grown in fresh years, has become a larger company than he was before...
All right, what about the another stuff? Visova – have you heard of her?
– erstwhile it comes to the visa scandal, if that's true, I'm against it. due to the fact that I'm mostly against immigration. But whether it's the PiS or the Platform, what comes out, it comes out, what doesn't come out, it doesn't come out, we'll never know. In this case, it doesn't substance what organization governs, specified things will always happen.
– Now there's a desire for revenge, as the government will settle the PiS. It's not going to work anyway, just like PiS was going to settle the old government.
– The thing that pisses me off the most is that everyone wants to settle, not do what they're expected to do. The job's down, and they're working on what.
– I get the feeling that everything's standing inactive and they're dealing with the scandals, taking care of themselves.
– To me, these are demonstrations, these commissions, they're expected to cover up another things, we'll find out what they are.
– We could usage a political culture, so that these parties can work together despite their views. This is about the unity of Poland.
– I'm against it erstwhile 1 organization has the majority. There should always be any kind of brake.
But that's the situation now, and it wasn't there before.
– But there's nothing to it. The PiS lost its power due to its pride. And the Coalition only did it against them. For example, I believe that the best solution would be if the Law and Justice had a majority with the Confederacy, due to the fact that they would not let certain things.
[...]
Pegasus and the surveillance of the opposition, does that bother you?
– We don't know what it was like out there. The Pegasus strategy itself is utilized to track terrorists, criminals, and that's good. The question is how many of these wiretaps were actually there. They overheard each other, asking whether Morawiecki was being overheard by Ziobro. We'll never know the truth. But it's incorrect to eavesdrop on the opposition.
– It shows that bad things are happening, not only that the opposition, they were listening to each other, it's truly bad.
– How are we expected to feel safe erstwhile everyone can be overheard?
As you can see, voters on the 1 hand do not believe or effort not to believe that corruption actually happened. On the another hand, they effort to relativise and diminish the importance of possible abuses, indicating that this applies not only to their parties but is simply a certain general standard. In a way, further. There's a regulation that we wrote about in the book. Population of populists, explaining the affluence of the Law and Justice: fanatics would not believe that their leaders had committed crimes and the cynics expected nothing else.
A crucial part of the group interview repeats questions from the survey about what they could in certain circumstances forgive a politician deserved for the organization and the case.
If a favourite politician were to illegally usage public funds to support his party, can you forgive?
– You can, due to the fact that everyone does, but we don't know.
– Let's not kid ourselves.
– I don't think so.
– Now taking the money from the PiS is simply a political act, we'll take it from you, you'll do nothing.
– No, it's crossing another line, it's expected to be an improvement.
To aid his party, he committed a state secret.
Absolutely can't happen, war after death.
– There's no excuse.
He paid for a private journey from public funds, once.
– I don't accept it, but I'm just gonna cross him off?
– I would.
– If a average citizen is punished, why not him?
– If he explained himself, I'd forgive him.
In an interview with a journalist, he showed gross incompetence. Can you forgive me?
– I'm sorry. He might have had a bad day. possibly he was hungover.
– Most specified cases have happened to the Left.
He betrayed his husband, his wife.
– It's everyone's individual case.
– Everybody's got something behind their ears. We shouldn't be doing this.
In this case, voters are more or little willing to forgive all the politicians of Law and Justice but for the betrayal of state secrecy, which is easy to explain by the fact that we are talking to the inhabitants of east Poland ("war behind the city"). specified permisivism was not demonstrated by voters by any another organization with whom we had conversations.
Of course, we are talking about declarations, but expressed in the company of others, so more liable than for example posted on social media. Consider, in the meantime, that we may be dealing with a retroactive approach of the interviewees. Since they supported and supported the Law and Justice and the Law and Justice brought about many scandals, the attitude of these voters to the Law and Justice affair is simply a function of their attitude to the organization itself. If that is the case, we are faced with a lowering of standards in the country's political life (greater acceptance of the affair).
8. CRISIS OF LEGISLATIVE AND TRAINING
Respondents were asked a question about the attitude towards elected political organization leaders. The evaluation could have been made on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 meant that the policy "does not like at all" and 10 meant "very like". In order to supply a clearer image emerging from these answers, we presented them in specified a way that we considered the assessments 7 to 10 as "like" signals, and the assessments 0 to 3 as indicators that the individual "does not like". This is how you can see how sympathy and antipathy for individual politicians are spread among the data of electorates (people who want to vote for the political parties in the upcoming elections), as well as among the hesitaters or unintended to participate in the elections. This may be peculiarly applicable in the context of the upcoming presidential elections. Here are any conclusions:
- On the scale of the survey the most favourable assessments were recorded by Trzaskowski and Tusk (35 percent and 31 percent of affirmative reviews of all respondents).
- Mateusz Morawiecki (PiS), Donald Tusk and Rafał Trzaskowski (KO), as well as Sławomir Mentzen and Krzysztof Bosak (Confederation) have the strongest position within the electorate of their political parties (these politicians like about 75–85 percent of the voters of their parties).
- A somewhat weaker position among their voters is Jarosław Kaczyński (PiS) and Szymon Hołownia (Third Road), although the largest proportion of voters inactive accept these politicians (67%) and 60% respectively). announcement that the parties of Simon Holownia did not grow up with a comparable position, so there is no 1 to choose from.
- The another leaders are definitely weaker. Władysław Kosiniak-Kamish (Third Road) likes 41 percent of the voters of his party (but here it should be noted that his quotations have fallen importantly among the supporters of Poland 2050, and a much better position is now in the PSL electorate – this is another sign that the 3rd Way coalition "at the bottom" is spreading in stitches).
- A real leadership crisis can be referred to in the case of fresh Left (although it is worth noting that due to the limitations on the dimension of the telephone interview we could only include 2 names). The Wizard Among the voters of its party, only 27% of affirmative ratings (and 10% of negative assessments) are recorded, and Adrian Zandberg – 32 percent (and 18 percent negative). The Leader Together inactive does not admit 18 percent of fresh Left voters.
- Rafał Trzaskowski, who likes as much as 65% of left-wing voters, is definitely stronger in the left-wing electorate.Donald Tusk – 38 percent – besides noted higher affirmative ratings. In addition, this is explained by the previously discussed flows of left-wing voters from autumn 2023 to the Civic Coalition: they weigh towards a organization with more expressive leaders.
- Politicians PiS, Kaczyński and Morawiecki, have the largest negative electorate – they do not like about 60% of the full respondents. As we will show below, they are leaders of the ranking of politicians who Poles would most like to see sentenced to prison.
The data collected from group interviews proved to be consistent with the key findings of the survey. We have politicians who besides impress electorates with different views. An example of specified a policy is Krzysztof Bosak, attractive to voters of PiS, PSL, Poland 2050, and even sometimes KO and Left. Krzysztof Bosak did not postgraduate from any higher education, but his erudition and appearance gives the impression that he was a specialist, and voters on focus argue about whether he is simply a lawyer or an engineer.
Voters PSL They are rather traditionally focused around their leaders. Asked about favourite politicians mention Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, Krzysztof Hetman and Marek Sawicki. In the second case, they note affirmatively that it does not change its views. They consider the party's president to be the best PSL candidate in the election. They talk very critically of others. They don't like Tusk, Trzaskowski is just his sidekick. Kaczyński “was finished” and is simply a burden for the PiS, and Morawiecki is only his sidekick. Positively received by Bosak (Sustained, supported by young people, inspires respect). It's not an exception, it's a rule. Bosak turns out to be a policy, which is besides exchanged by participants of interviews voting for PiS, Poland 2050, and even KO.
Similarly, the focus on their leaders are those talking with Confederations. Although spontaneous as a model of politics indicate Andrzej Lepper for his uncompromisingness and charisma (last popular on TikToku made recordings of the statements of the leader of Self-defence), while the present like only leaders and politicians of their party. The fact that Anna Bryłka and Ewa Zajączkowska are mentioned alongside Bosak and Mentzen indicates that the Confederacy rapidly drew conclusions from the political camps crossing the borders of the trend in inducing young women in politics.
Andrew Lepper. I wasn't a fan of him, but I liked him being honest and supporting the small ones. He was very brave, defending his point, his opinion.
And from the living?
Christopher Bosak.
– Mine, too. They unveiled the monument to Volyn and only Bosak appeared from major politicians. I liked that due to the fact that it's an crucial part of our story.
– Mine, too. I value Plan B. If he fell out in the election, he'd be fine elsewhere. Bosak, Mentzen. Bosak is educated, he's an engineer.
– I think you're a lawyer, too.
– I think I'm an engineer. He's speaking logic, and I like that.
- Order, respect.
– He's not letting his emotions get in the way.
– He's not losing control.
Always cultural. He never refused anyone a photo. Smiled, behaved.
– In interviews, he seldom wonders, he can talk out about anything.
Listen to the podcast “Women's Education”:
Other Confederate politicians? [here's surprise: they spontaneously exchange women, which shows that the Confederate did well, placing more young women in politics]
- Anna Bryłka.
- The part speaks very well. Eva Zajączkowska, too.
[...]
– And beyond the organization Marek Jakubiak, he is simply a patriot.
Like Lepper. No one's considering him. Entrepreneur who wants to do something for Poland.
Similarly, voters KO in principle, they do not mention any policy outside of their own leaders:
A favourite politician, who and why?
– For me, Rafał Trzaskowski, he's got a parity and he beats charisma, he's an intelligent guy, he's super nice, and if I was gay, I'd go after him.
Do you agree?
– Yes, and Donald Tusk, of course, I love him. He has a wonderful presence, he can say a lot, I like his speeches. He is besides handsome and impresses me that he was the EU president and has achieved a large deal in politics.
I like Tuska for charisma.
– And the only 1 who doesn't embarrass us abroad.
Yeah, that's fine.
– Trzaskowski besides for me, a man who has values, and too he truly communicates well.
- Yes, it is.
The situation with voters is simply a small more complicated Left in mid-sized city group interviews. Turns out their favourite politician is Vladimir Black. This shows that the Left should look more closely at its electorate from outside large cities. However, these affirmative statements about Black do not change the fact that the same voters believe that The presidential candidate of the full coalition should be Trzaskowski and They're reasoning about switching the vote to another parties..
Similar answers were given by the Lublin electorate group PiS. due to the fact that they think that Kaczyński's time and surroundings have passed, they start looking in another parties and – here there is no surprise – come to Krzysztof Bosak.
Give an example of your favourite politician?
- Bosak. I think the guy's specific, I haven't seen him nervous. Despite his early experience in politics, he can go far.
– Dariusz Matecki from Solidarne Poland, is circumstantial in what he says, what he does. I like the way he exposes this government.
– I like Czarnek, he has charisma, he is stable. Even though he may be a fool.
Christopher Bosak.
– Jan Kanthak, is simply a modern person, specific, striving for a goal. In second place, Bosak, has a healthy attitude, is besides substantively well prepared, I don't know, I think he's a lawyer.
– I like Morawiecki, we had a gathering with him, he compelled me with his attitude.
This is another confirmation that the PiS flows on a hollow ship and takes on water, and voters can decision to the Confederate if its helm is Bosak and if they avoid controversial statements like those from which Sławomir Mentzen is famous. This does not change the fact that the possible coalition of the PiS and the Confederacy as a full is increasing stronger and only the proportions between possible coalitions are changing.
We besides see that Szymon Hołownia is only minimally popular (60%) in the electorate of its organization than Rafał Trzaskowski (54%). Donald Tusk is more popular in the 3rd Way electorate (46%) than Simon Hołownia in the KO electorate (42%). Krzysztof Bosak is more popular in the PiS electorate (21 percent, he does not like him only 26 percent) than Jarosław Kaczyński in the Confederate electorate (15 percent, but he does not like him as much as 55 percent).
9. recognition CRISIS WITH GOVERNMENT
We were curious in both the degree to which the surveyed identify themselves with the actions of the government and the overall assessment they give him, as well as whether in different spheres of life they perceive affirmative or negative changes.
Half of the surveyed (51%) are mostly or very small identified with the government's programme, transmission and actions. This is primarily due to the voters of Law and Justice and the Confederacy, highly critical of the cabinet formed by Donald Tusk. It's obvious. But besides among the coalitions of the civilian Coalition, in the electorate of the 3rd Way and the fresh Left there is simply a deficiency of critical or tempered assessment of the government's actions. In both groups, the percent of people at most in certain situations that consider the government to be "his" outweighs the percent of those who identify with the current cabinet. Among the KO voters, which is natural, there are assessments showing support, but here besides all 3rd voter (35%) has doubts.
Group interviews confirm the poll's findings. The PiS and Confederacy electors powerfully identify with their parties, and the current government considers themselves to be strangers in contrast to the erstwhile government, of which even Bosaka organization voters enthusiastically spoke. Ko-KO coalition electors identify themselves with the government to a tiny or average degree, and its activities on a school scale of 1–6 measure the ‘fare three’. They're very critical. The government's general achievements include: no fast changes and price increases. The exception is only Polish 2050 voters, indicating that they are hesitant or not to transfer their support to Donald Tusk's party. The only voters who selected a strong recognition with the government on a scale during focus investigation (each individually, writing on cards to avoid group pressures) proved to be "fanatic" voters of the Civic Coalition (those who claimed to vote for KO due to the fact that this is just their party). They are the only electorate who think that the government has done well during the floods, etc., etc.
– I voted for KO due to the fact that I felt like they were working on their mistakes that were 8 years ago.
– I wanted to pursuit the Law and Justice and I think that there is nothing better in Poland today.
– Me too.
– I voted for KO due to the fact that I like Mr. Rafał Trzaskowski very much.
– I love him, too!
– And I've even had a chance to meet Mr. Rafał in private, it's great, truly great!
[...]
How do you justice the government's consequence to the flood?
– It's a small confusing what Tusk said about stress.
– This was an expression taken out of context by his opponents.
– Yes, he did not say it in a bad context, but he said it at all, and that gave food.
– The office in Wrocław were live, and it was a plus, and a plus for what Tusk said that looters would sit down and immediately received 8 months for stealing 300 or 400 PLN, due to the fact that they hoped that, as for the 800 PLN theft, they would get a ticket, alternatively than immediately in the stripe.
– Yeah, that was very good.
– KO super utilized the situation to show positive, and Duda and the harvest, they completely compromised here.
– I'm very impressed by the transparency of the information, there's no veil on this drawn and an emotional intelligence specimen was how I saw Tusk in T-shirt, unshaven and you can see the sleepless guy. T-shirt prime minister, unshaven and looking at Twitter. No emotion. And there's Morawiecki in his coats and in his white shirt and with a hammer, posing for the photo.
- It's working.
Exactly.
– Giga satisfaction from our government.
Throughout the survey, the government deserved in our survey a rating of “acceptable with a plus” (2.7) on a school scale of 1 to 6. It is not amazing that the lowest marks were presented by the voters of the PiS and Confederacy (one with a plus). The electors of coalition groups, the 3rd Way and the Left, were besides far from commendation, awarding a solid "three" (3,3 and 3.2). Only voters of the Civic Coalition issued a good rating (4,1). Our interviewors at group interviews were only somewhat more favorably favored by the government, but they mostly made very akin notes than the respondents.
For example, the Lublin PiS voters have given the government a measurement of encouragement (something they effort to do but neglect to do), appreciating only changes in education (cutting off the programme) and in relations with the EU. rather generously the government's actions are besides judged by the Ko-burdening TD voters from Włocławek, who put the government 4 (more than the KO voters who rated their assurance in the government at 4 and his actions after 1 year at 3).
– I think they've done a lot, they're trying, but they have a pest in the form of a president and a concrete law.
– We take into account the conditions they have, in many institutions there are inactive people connected to the Law and Justice.
- Yes, it is.
The graph shows an average scale of 1 to 6.
These mediocre overall assessments consequence from the fact that many respondents are convinced that despite the change of power in many areas of life, there have been no desirable changes for the better, and frequently even worse. Of course, these assessments were arranged according to political sympathy and antipathy.
- According to the majority (57%), political change did not translate into their economical position and standard of living. However, 29 percent believe that in this respect the situation deteriorated, and only 14 percent that it improved.
- The percent of people who believe that change in power negatively affects the improvement opportunities of Poland, almost balances the percent of people assessing this change as beneficial for further improvement of the country.
- Migration policy has been critically assessed – part of the sympathizers with parties forming part of the government coalition accuses Tusk of insufficient continuation of the main assumptions (not radically different practice!) of the migration policy of the PiS, in the Left there are most likely any who do not like to leave much of the substance at the border as it was during the PiS (pushbacki).
- Strengthening Poland's position in relations with the EU is the only area where the majority of respondents see an improvement compared to erstwhile years. Even any opposition organization voters see the affirmative actions of the current government.
We have looked at which of these areas are the strongest in shaping the overall assessment of the government. This ‘shaping’ means that with affirmative assessments of the government's work there are advanced assessments of Tusk's activities on a scale of 1–6 and vice versa: with assessments showing that the area has deteriorated, there is simply a negative overall assessment of the government's work. specified a single strongest origin is:
- For the PiS electorate, the sphere of media freedom and journalistic independence;
- Among KO voters the chances of Poland to further develop;
- In the 3rd Way electorate – Poland's relations with the EU;
- Among the fresh Left and Confederacy sympathizers, the quality of democracy and the regulation of law.
They are full in line with this image of what our interviewers have said in group interviews. And this time we asked them to measure the different areas of government work, according to the survey scenario.
A standard of surviving for people like you?
– Down.
– Down.
– He hasn't changed.
Development opportunities in Poland?
– No way! [the remainder nods their heads as a sign of approval]
A scandal scale, political abuse?
– There's no 1 to check them out yet.
The quality of democracy, the regulation of law?
– I don't know.
– It's so hard to say clearly.
– Tusk said he would punish breaking the constitution and himself breaks.
Even the very government-friendly electorate of Poland 2050 in Włocławek has fatally assessed the efforts of the government in the area of the standard of surviving of citizens.
In what areas has the top improvement occurred?
- Legal stuff, here's improvement.
– In the sphere of relations with the EU.
Freedom of the media.
And how did the government deal with immigration and immigration policy?
– There's an improvement, I think, they've changed the law to usage their weapons primarily for soldiers, these border guards, due to the fact that now soldiers headed for the border already know that they are attacking them with dangerous objects.
– After all, they came to us in bulk and nobody controlled it, visas were given. It went without any control at all. There's progress, there's control.
And the standard of surviving of people like you has changed for the better, for the worse?
– For better, due to the fact that we work more. [laughs] Not 2 jobs, 3 jobs.
I hear irony in that.
– Nothing's changed.
- Constants is.
– And the cleaning woman in the ministry earns PLN 7–9 thousand.
After this year of governments, in what areas of life have they improved, in which things have not changed, and in what areas have they even worsened?
– I'm certain it's a plus to account for your predecessors, which wasn't there before, due to the fact that any of them were yelling at each another that we would settle you and nothing happened at all. But now the commissions are formed, and finally, as they will endure the consequences for, for example, these 70 million respirators, they may yet halt stealing.
[...]
Immigration and immigration policy?
– Not yet.
– I'm not personally in favour of receiving.
– Me too.
- So do I.
- Yeah.
– We're in a vacuum, we don't know.
– There was a referendum.
– We see what is happening in France, for example, and we do not want the same thing as it is now. It's logical to me.
Relations with the EU?
– Well, they surely improved their relationship. The question is, will we benefit from it?
A standard of surviving for people like you?
– hard to say.
– What am I expected to say now, me, a teacher? Well, I got a raise, and the kid wasn't, but to make me feel in my wallet, I wouldn't say that, due to the fact that everything's going up, so I don't think anything's changed. Well, possibly a small bit of a plus.
– We make more money and spend more on bills, at least.
– That's right.
Chances of Poland to further develop, large infrastructure products?
– It was expected to be an global airport, CPK, but it slowed down, I don't know.
During a group interview with voters of the Civic Coalition, it was rather enthusiastic to review the work of the fresh government until it became a dispute over migration policy and to measure the impact of refugees on safety levels:
Which areas on the plus side?
– Restoring the regulation of law, what Bodnar did, it's chapeau bass, due to the fact that it's truly a turbo dense area to deal with with turbo turbulence.
– And plus education, too.
– The withdrawal of donations to the Church and abruptly Rydzyk settled, has nothing to sponsor his television.
– Rydzyk is specified a pig, a terrible pig.
– Correct relations with the EU on a affirmative and negative situation with Ukraine.
– Immigration policy hasn't changed much.
Did it get any better or worse?
– Oh, no, it got a lot better.
– Illegal visas have yet stopped.
It's for suckers.
I like Ukrainians to Africans.
– We live in the safest country in the EU, and let us not screw up, so to speak.
Yeah, we wouldn't want to ruin it.
– I don't agree with illegal immigrants and I don't want them.
– But they're not the only ones who hang on, it's up to a man.
– That's right, our guys are beating and lashing too.
– Everyone must be treated with respect at first, we should not immediately delete individual due to the colour of the skin or nationality.
– If I wanted to emigrate and live in another country, then out of respect for this country I would learn his language and culture and adapt to this country, and future Ukrainian children to school and my children could not usually learn.
10. WHAT POLICE SEES IN PRISON
The long-pronounced explanation of the scandal and abuse of the people of erstwhile power in the social assessment so far has not been peculiarly successful. Only 1 in 4 respondents thinks that the government's actions to date have been effective.Confederate politicians are the most critical in this regard.
The strict settlement of the erstwhile power has social legitimacy, 2⁄3 respondents believe that there are specified politicians or officials of the erstwhile power who deserved prison.That is even the 3rd voter of Law and Justice!
At the top of the list of politicians worthy of prison are Mateusz Morawiecki and Jarosław Kaczyński. Zbigniew Ziobra is frequently exchangedand Mariusz Kamiński and Maciej Wąsik. The only policy rather frequently pointed out by the voters of Law and Justice is Ryszard Czarnecki (16%). In another cases, respondents to the PiS were incapable to supply circumstantial individuals from the erstwhile power camp.
Those who agreed that there were politicians or officials of the erstwhile ruling camp who deserved to be jailed responded. The surveyer did not read the list of names, he marked the names mentioned by the respondent.
The results of qualitative studies show that the PiS settlement case has taken on additional importance in our policy. For the voters of Donald Tusk's party, it has become a motor driving support for his group and the government, and at the same time a tool to regroup its electorate and set up a hard base of "fanatic" supporters who, for being able to watch the accounting process, are able to forgive, if not everything, it is in any case a lot. Interestingly, this hard-core electorate of the civilian Coalition not only calls for the most public punishment of the guilty, but is the only 1 who welcomes the government's achievements in this area and is willing to overlook shortcomings in another dimensions. For KO leaders, this is simply a comfortable situation. After 8 years of populism, state funds are almost empty. The government cannot afford any more costly gifts for citizens (and even, as it gives them – grandmother's, widow's pension – that, as we showed earlier, the electorate, and so in this area, it assigns more merit to the PiS). In addition, this responds to the social request to punish the guilty and capitalizes the widespread aversion of politics and political class in society as such. This is why 2⁄3 Polish society, including many PiS sympathizers, would like to see at least any ruling in prisons until recently. In the course of interviews, even the voters of Jarosław Kaczyński's organization request that politicians be put in jail.
You said the scandals of the erstwhile government were an exaggeration. Are there politicians of the erstwhile crew who should be in prison?
– Czarnecki, if it all checks out.
– Yeah, he should go first.
– Sasin, with an enveloped election led public institutions to the brink of bankruptcy.
– He was premeditated.
– Kamiński for the land scandal.
Who else?
– If this Justice Fund has been so robbed, it will prove true, Ziobro.
– Ziobro's got a lot behind his ears, besides confident.
For the reasons discussed above, the electorate, which enthusiastically evaluates actions to settle the PiS rule, are voters of the Tusk and Trzask party. They enjoy all small success, kindly explain to themselves and others nonsubjective difficulties, and realize that it takes time to get things done.
One of the priorities of this government was to settle the predecessors. How do you justice that?
– Positive.
– They have this separate category, the accounting of the Law and Justice, and from what I can see, I think all the points from 100 to 100 days are in progress. Awesome. Clear them out of everything, get the money, thieves!
– Yeah, my chief, too. Let's get the bazooka back to the motherfucker.
– Ziobro has already received a affirmative opinion from the doctor, and I support it as much as possible and I believe that this is the biggest of the advantages of the current government. I see the consequences here.
– They ruled 8 years, so it takes time to settle that, too.
– Before these signaling voices are converted to any truth, we can anticipate not a month, but years as it should be done well. I'm not in a hurry. I can wait.
– And don't let go!
– Yeah, you can't.
The voters of the remaining government coalition organization are little satisfied. They support a fast settlement of all PiS scandals. Either they anticipate the impossible, i.e. to justice and convict the guilty within a year, a maximum of two, or they absolutely do not believe that this will always happen.
Does it bother you? Do you think that's inflatable?
– All of this should be accounted for.
– So far there are scapegoats, they say wrong, but no 1 has been brought to justice. Did individual go to jail for the envelope election?
– Shumowski's way is missing.
So what you're saying is we request to get them settled as shortly as possible?
– Yeah.
– That's what commissions in parliament, cookie, coffee are for, just like we're sitting here. They're interviewing Kaczyński, and he says, "I won't say, he's making fun of them."
[...]
– The full committee that was set up in Tusk's government didn't full explain anything. The full visa thing, over 300 grand. And the president explained that 60,000 of this was at the invitation of entrepreneurs, but they didn't come to work due to the fact that they didn't come.
– The slogan was already “We will number and let go in socks” and now the comrades from the PZPR are multimillionaires, and they have immense enterprises, and Włocławek could buy all of them. For example, I think they should settle a fewer and, for example, plant them. If we embezzle, if we embezzle, if we embezzle, if we embezzle, if we embezzle, if we embezzle, if we embezzle, if we embezzle, if we embezzle, if we embezzle, if we embezzle, if we embezzle, if we embezzle, if we embezzle, if we embezzle, if we embezzle, if we embezzle, if we embezzle.
– A morale bill would be good.
– Pegasus overheard all the citizens.
– They eavesdropped on each other, so rushed.
Do you have any candidates for prison?
– Ziembro.
– A mustache.
– Kamiński.
Putting politicians in prison does not satisfy as usual pragmatic PSL voters, who believe that the social benefit will be negligible.
Are there politicians who deserve prison?
– Nope.
– They should, but they request to be proven, charged, not just talking.
Isn't there a individual you think he should...?
– Czarnecki.
– But prison wouldn't make me happy. Give me the money, man.
– Sasin.
– But he didn't take it in his pocket.
– Only $800 million was wasted.
– Let him give it back or at least work it back somewhere.
11. TRZASKOWSKI AT THE AUDIT FOR THE PRESIDENT
So far, only the Confederate leader Sławomir Mentzen announced the start of the presidential election. In the case of another people, there is only speculation. So we decided to ask the respondents who they thought should become the president of Poland, and to perceive to the names they would mention, without reading them from the list. As in the erstwhile chapter, Spontaneous responses are much more crucial than marking names in the poll cafeteria.
The only policy that was mentioned by more than 10 percent of respondents (and precisely 3 times as many!) was Rafał Trzaskowski, the likely candidate of the Civic Coalition. His name was indicated by 72 percent of KO sympathizers and 63 percent of fresh Left voters. In the 3rd Way electorate alone, the current president of Warsaw lost only somewhat to Simon Holovnia (28 percent of the indications, and the talker of the Sejm 31 percent). Trzaskowski declassifies all possible competitors.
The surveyer did not read the list of names, he marked the names mentioned by the respondent.
We invited respondents to find who they would vote for in the second circular of elections if he got to it Rafał Trzaskowski or individual candidates, sometimes indicated by name and sometimes only by organization affiliation or another features.
This simulation shows that the best chance of competing with Rafał Trzaskowski would be the PiS candidate (unless it is Tobias Bocheński). The screenplay of our survey was already evidence long for telephone investigation (average 20 minutes), so we could not ask about all possible candidates appearing on the stock exchange. However, the analysis of the results of this survey suggests that if alternatively of Bocheński alternatively of the "PiS candidate", we insert any name associated with the scandals of the last 8 years (Morawecki – second in the ranking "who is behind bars", Blaszczak, or "the 1 from the rocket", the effect will be comparable or even worse. For voters outside the hard-core PiS electorate it would be better for a candidate generation closer to individual like Kacper Plażyński, but would an older electorate of the organization itself accept it?
Another serious competitor for Trzaskowski alongside the “PiS candidate” (as long as he remains anonymous) would be Krzysztof Bosak. In both of these variants, the competitors of Trzaskowski could number on over 40% of the vote and lose to the possible candidate KO by only a fewer percent points. However, with Krzysztof Bosak, there is this problem that, although, as we have shown in many places of the report, apart from the Confederate electorate ahead of Mentzen by 2 lengths, the second organization mistakenly chose to be its candidate.
surprisingly many votes were received by Krzysztof Stanowski, the name that appeared on the pre-election stock exchange, a non-political individual but enjoying advanced recognition. Youtubera from the Zero Channel indicated 28 percent of respondents, he could number primarily on votes of PiS and Confederate voters, especially younger ones, before 50 years of age. specified a consequence does not tell us anything about whether Stanowski wants to run or alternatively like to be a "candidacy candidate", but shows that there is inactive a possible in these elections for the emergence of a "gamechanger", specified as 10 years ago was Paweł Kukiz. An unexpected candidate of anti-establishment alternatively on the right than left can attract people in the first circular who have not yet thought about going to elections. As in 2005, in the second circular specified an electorate would alternatively fall to the PiS candidate. But this is an area far beyond possible research.
Out of our options The least chance against Trzaskowski would be a female – Left candidate. With specified a couple, a possible candidate of KOs would support up to 34% of Confederate voters (the candidate of the Left pointed out 16 percent of them).
All of this leads to the conclusion that, 8 months before the presidential election, Rafał Trzaskowski is the strongest, but not without a chance is the candidate of the Law and Justice, and – if at all he would compete and enter the second circular – besides Krzysztof Bosak. For now, however, Trzaskowski has no 1 to lose to but himself.
The figure shows the percent of indications for each candidate in pairs. The remaining interest is the consequence "I would not take part in the election", "I don't know who I would vote for" and "I would give a invalid vote".
Methodological note
A survey on a typical example of N=1000 by telephone (CATI) conducted the Ipsos studio on 10-18 September 2024. Note that fresh interviews were conducted at the minute erstwhile the flood continued in Poland, which did not have any impact on the results concerning the general social temper or assessment of the government's work (no differences between the answers from the beginning and end of the trial period). Focuses with electorates of all parties were carried out on 24–26 September in Warsaw, Lublin and Włocławek.
Lublin
– six people surviving in Lublin and voting in the last election for the Law and Justice (three people aged 30–45 and 65+; equally women and men)
– six people surviving in the countryside (but not in the immediate vicinity of Lublin; at least 2 of them are farmers men), supporting PSL, equally those aged 30-45 and 60+)
Warsaw
– Six people voting for the civilian Coalition (aged 25–45, both women and men)
Confederate voters (25-40; 1-2 women; another men)
Włocław
– six people supporting Poland 2050 and Holovnia (25–45 years, both women and men)
– six people voting for the Left (1–2 men, another women; age 25–40)
The investigation was carried out by the Institute of Political Critics with the support of the Warsaw Representation of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation. With these funds we paid for coordination of research, implementation of the survey and implementation of focusses with right-wing organization voters. Additional support from the Warsaw Representation of the Heinrich Böll Foundation enabled the implementation of the focusses with the organization voters of the government coalition.
[1] The table shows how voters' votes changed between 2023 and 2024. It should be analysed in rows. The first from above shows how erstwhile voters of Law and Justice want to vote. 59% inactive want to vote for this organization today, and only 6% are presently in the Confederate direction. For example, 50% of left-wing voters last year keep their erstwhile election, and 8 percent do not know who they will vote for.
