Stasia Wake Up: For over 200 evenings people have been blocking the main street in Tbilisi, Rustabel's avenue, close parliament. Let us remind you that protests in Georgia did not begin immediately after the October last year parliamentary elections, which by opposition and the 5th Georgia president, Salome Zurabishvili, were declared false, but after the Prime Minister announced on 28 November that Georgia suspends accession talks with the European Union until the end of 2028. In December, power brutally pacified them. Now she's changed her strategy. She mounted cameras to catch protesters and impose draconian punishment on them. But from the beginning. What truly happened that Georgian Dreams ruled for 13 years abruptly turned from the West and began looking the another way?
Gia Nodia: The observed start of the retreat from the West came in 2019. The first clear signal of change was the alleged Gawrilov night, erstwhile a Russian sat down in the Georgian parliament on the Speaker's place and gave a speech in his language. erstwhile a full-scale war broke out in Ukraine, Georgian authorities behaved ambivalently. Then it was just worse. They introduced Russian law on "foreign agents", aimed primarily at NGOs and media, passed the law on the prohibition of "propaganda LGBTQ+", and then won the election. The period over "and" was the Prime Minister's words about the suspension of Euro-Inclusion. I consider this to be primarily the return of the paranoid founder of the ruling organization and at the same time the man who de facto He is the only 1 who makes decisions in this country, Bidina Ivanishvili. It seems to me that its aim is to make Georgia an authoritarian country that will proceed to work with the West, but on its terms.
There is already an authoritarian state in the South Caucasus. It is Azerbaijan, which is ruled by Ilham Aliyev. He has a comparatively good relation with the West. However, Azerbaijan is definitely richer than Georgia, it has oil and gas resources, and it has never had a desire to join European structures. In contrast, the Georgian Constitution states that it will search to join the EU and NATO. On what basis did Ivanishvili come up with an highly different future for Georgia?
Only he knows. Ivanishvili seems certain that since authoritarian Azerbaijan may have a correct relation with the West, then authoritarian Georgia too. He expressed this in 1 of his pre-election speeches, while acknowledging the West as an enemy, who wants to lead to the beginning of the second front in the Caucasus and drag Georgia into the war with Russia. So he wanted to win the elections at all costs, put the European Union before the fact that it was done and show that there was no 1 else to talk to in Georgia.
Georgian Dream campaigned as a pro-European organization whose main nonsubjective is Euro-Inclusion, but on its terms. Only a period after winning the election they officially admitted otherwise. Since then, Georgians and Georgians have been blocking the capital's main artery, and Georgian Dreams have been getting worse and worse in the West: the US is operating MEGOBARI Actto be sanctioned by leading Georgian politicians and their families. any European countries, including Poland, have introduced sanctions against those GM members who are liable for the usage of force during protests. How is this perceived by the authorities in Georgia?
Continuous protests in the country and severe sanctions do not aid to stabilise the situation, and this surely affects the dynamics inside the party. Ivanavili had large hope in Donald Trump. He was waiting for a swearing in and hoping to improve his relation with Washington, but it didn't work. The US tends to condemn the anti-American and anti-democratic course of Georgia, imposes sanctions on leading figures from the government, and if it passes the MEGOBARI Act, it will only be harder. Turns out Ivanishvili's assumptions were wrong. A number of incomprehensible acts of power propose she panicked. Prime Minister Irakli Kobachidze wrote a letter to Trump on Facebook, in which he indicated that Georgia was on his side in the fight against the Deep State. Of course, he did not receive an answer. All of this is unusual and constitutes a public violation of diplomatic protocol.
Let's go back to the Georgian street. Protests have no political force behind them, they are a completely bottom-up initiative. These people want to carry out fresh parliamentary elections, return Georgia to the way of Euro-Inclusion and release all political prisoners. Young people protest mainly, regular risking their freedom and exposing themselves to gigantic financial penalties (the mandate is up to 5,000 lari, or about 7,000 zlotys), which they are incapable to pay. problem is, this protest doesn't work. What's next?
The chance that the protest would change something was in December, in his harshest phase, erstwhile the power brutally pacified him. This was the minute erstwhile people realized that there was no change of power in Georgia by means of elections. However, it did not happen that the revolution was the only way. So this 1 didn't happen. We slept through that moment.
Why?
There was no leader. There was no plan. The street didn't want anyone from the opposition to lead it. She was organizing herself. In that case, it had no chance of success.
Initially, it seemed that Salome Zurabishvili, a erstwhile president, might be at the forefront of the protests.
Yes, but she didn't stop. She's no good, she's not a revolutionary. She's neither strong nor popular enough.
I remember voices on Tbilisi Street that they could do without a leader. It was hard to believe, due to the fact that even taking the parliament building through the crowd would have done nothing if there was no 1 there to represent it. This decision from the beginning seemed to be devoid of any plan. I had the impression that the opposition or Salome Zurabishvili were inactive only announcing that the next day they would tell people what they were planning, and each time they ended up concluding that they had to make an early election. But a mark isn't a plan. Can it be said present that the main mistakes are the deficiency of a plan and a leader?
Probably, but now we don't talk about mistakes, due to the fact that it would negatively affect the morale of those who go out on the streets all day. As long as the protest continues, there is hope that something will change. erstwhile it's over, you'll gotta admit defeat and mistakes, go home. That's why we gotta go out on the streets, even if there's not much hope in us.
Protesters roamed the streets all winter, believing that something would change in the spring, and it's only worse. Power introduces increasingly suffocating laws, bans and warrants. Now that it's known that a change of power can only happen through revolution, possibly there's a chance we'll see it in the fall, around the local elections? erstwhile in 2003, something like this happened in Georgia.
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Yes, but it's not coming now. At the time the economical situation was tragic, and present we have something to eat. Local elections will take place, whether the opposition participates or not.
Salome Zurabishvili and Micheil Saakashvili, erstwhile presidents of Georgia, advise against opposition to participate in the elections. If she listens to them, she will lose her chance to take over local government power, for example in Tbilisi, which could affect the arrangement of forces in the country.
Definitely. If the opposition took over the capital, the ruling camp would have origin for concern. but the course for this had to be taken from the beginning. In October, however, everyone focused on losing, betting on protests, seeking aid in the West and boycotting parliament. Now the opposition is divided and we do not know if it will stand for election.
Or could the opposition have joined parliament?
To make a large mouth out of yourself? That would mean losing respect for all the people who have been protesting for 200 days against falsified elections.
The drive of the rulers to autocracy is only a mania of greatness or the influence of Russia?
Both, but above all a mania the size of Ivanishvili's Bidina, who, in my opinion, considers himself almost God, and at least the owner of this country. Russia, of course, is pushing Ivanishvili in this direction, due to the fact that it is very good for her. We know that the national safety Service consultants are cooperating with our services. This was seen during the pacification of protests. The methods of repression utilized were typically Russian. As society is mostly anti-Russian, power does not talk out about it.
Meanwhile, Micheil Saakashvili is in prison and does not appear to leave the prison during the Georgian dream. The opposition needs him?
Power can't afford him to leave. In fact, she is much more needed in prison than the opposition in the wild, due to the fact that Georgian Dream on Saakashvili built its legend, it is before it scares society before all election. His punishment is like proof of their regulation of law. They wouldn't be able to explain his release. And now that they're not under force from the West and free from his influence, the more they don't gotta explain themselves to anyone.
Can we talk about autocracy in Georgia?
Yeah, actually, we already are. On the last day of May, FARA began operating, a revised law on abroad agents that hits free media and NGOs. The authority plans to introduce university improvement – whatever this means, it is known that it will hit young people first. Ilia State University, where I lecture, officially supports the protests, which is why we will most likely get the most. In addition to this, opposition leaders 1 by 1 end end up in detention, and a committee is acting at the parliament, which explains the crimes of Saakashvili's government and aims to bring the opposition to the delegation. The final phase will be the local government elections won by Georgian Dreams. They will be repressed, the last rebels will perish – either leave or go to jail. Then we can talk about the dictatorship.
What's left?
Apathy. And the hope that something will happen. Nobody believed in the fall of the USSR either.
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Gia Nodia– Georgian philosopher, political scientist, analyst, publicist and politician, Minister of Education and discipline of Georgia in 2008.
