CDU/CSU and SPD leaders reached an agreement on earlier elections. They will be held on 23 February, 3 weeks earlier than the first agenda presented by Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
The earlier elections were pressed by the chadecia, but they seem to be in the hands of social democrats as well. According to current polls, the SPD can number on support of about 16 percent of Germans. Its direct left-wing competitors are doing much worse. Greens, who are commonly accused of serious economical policy errors and of a deep crisis, are 11 percent. The Post-communist Left (Die Linke) has a not even on the electoral threshold, but definitely below (from 2 to a maximum of 4%). A certain entrance to the Bundestag must besides not be left-wing Sahra Wagenknecht, who previously appeared from the Left this year and founded her own party, BSW. The polls give her 5 to a maximum of 8 percent of support. However, its group is comparatively fresh and has so far been successful only in the east of the country. BSW politicians admit they are not ready for an earlier election: they may simply not be able to launch a run that will guarantee their success.
In this situation, with the top resources and capital, the SPD has an advantage which, if the run goes smoothly, should consequence in a decent election result. As a result, the group will have a comparatively strong negotiating position in talks with the chadecja, which will most likely win the election in the tusks – the polls give it from 32 to 36 percent support.
If, after the election on February 23, a alleged large coalition is formed again, Germany will return to a well-known political model. The CDU/CSU-SPD government was first established in 1966 under Chancellor Kurt Georg Kiesinger. Later on, she placed Merkel on a large coalition respective times: she ruled with the SPD from 2005 to 2009 and from 2013 to 2021.
From a counter-revolutionary perspective, this is not an optimal model. The SPD is simply a organization profoundly overeating with revolutionary thinking, and the chadetia shows small opposition to extremist impulses. It was during the regulation of the alleged "great coalition" that the alleged "third sex" and pseudo-marriage unions for LGBT couples were introduced in Germany with the right to adopt children. As part of what is theoretically possible, a better CDU/CSU coalition with FDP would be. The FDP is simply a liberal party, but curious mainly in the economy. Chadedia co-organised with the FDP respective times, during the times of Chancellors Adenauer, Erhard, Kohl and 2009-2013 behind Merkel. The CDU/CSU-FDP governments did not peculiarly advance impunity, while leading a rational economical and European policy. However, it does not seem possible to establish specified a coalition after the 23rd of February elections. This expulsion of FDP chief Christian Lindner from Scholz's government led to the current political crisis, and the organization has so low support that it may not even enter the Bundestag. This has only happened erstwhile in the erstwhile history, in 2017; now the defeat can happen again.
If for any reason the CDU/CSU did not agree after the election with the SPD, the chadecia would be able to form a government besides with the Greens. specified an arrangement at national level has not yet been in Germany, but it functions in the lands. In practice, the policy of specified a government should be very akin to that of the alleged large coalition.
The biggest challenge for the fresh coalition will be to bring economical affairs in order. This is mainly the case for the automotive industry, which is facing tremendous difficulties due to the advanced cost of production in Germany and the drastic decline in request on the Chinese market. The fresh US administration is threatening to tighten trade policy by threatening to impose duties on European goods. If these threats had been made, it would have been a coffin nail for German car manufacturers. Germany cannot afford to do that, hence the request to replace the government and turn power into the hands of CDU head Friedriech Merz, a business-related US.
From the Polish perspective, the proposal to reconstruct universal collection in Germany is peculiarly interesting. The CDU seems determined in this case. If the plan succeeds, Germany can launch a long-term process of strengthening the Bundeswehr, expanding its importance in NATO and becoming an even more crucial partner for Americans. This will not benefit Poland.
However, the CDU/CSU-SPD coalition is improbable to deviate from the assumptions of the Green Transformation, which means that 1 of the biggest structural problems for the economy will not be removed. It is besides hard to imagine any effective solutions to the migration crisis, the second large subject of modern German politics. It may be assumed that this will reward an increase in support of the alternate for Germany. AfD, so far inactive surrounded by sanitary cordon, received 10.3% of the vote in the 2021 election. present it can number on 16 to 19.5 percent of support according to the polls. The emergence in economical and economical problems may lead to an chance where, after the next elections, the participation of Alternatives in government is already necessary, which would be the biggest revolution in German politics after 1949. However, the road is far away.
Paweł Chmielewski
