For the first time in more than 20 years, the French parliamentary elections are not held just after the presidential elections, which has always been a bonus for the recently elected tenant of the Elysée Palace. The final vote was exceptional, due to the fact that Emmanuel Macron's organization did not win an independent majority and had to regulation with the omission of parliament, for example through famous Article 49.3.
The push for unpopular reforms in a little democratic way yet affected the power camp during the fresh European elections, and Macron dissolved the National Assembly in consequence to the defeat.
To fight for as many deputies as possible The left stood united, while the right hand art succeeded only partially. The splits among another right-wing groups, however, helped the Le Pen party, which after the Euro-election remained on the rising wave. Contrary to any hopes, she was not even harmed by the advanced turnout, estimated at 68%, higher than in any parliamentary election of the last 4th of the century.
Nationalists Leading
If Macron's goal was to halt the far right's advance in the early elections, The president has just suffered a catastrophic defeat.. The National Unity (RN) won 33.2% of the votes, thus defeating the fresh People's Front (NFP), which received 28 percent and the presidential block for which 20% of voters voted. Conservative Republicans (LR) with 6.6% of the votes and various ointments of candidates outside the main groups were inactive falling behind.
It would seem that from 1 3rd of the vote to the absolute majority is far away, but not in the strategy of single-mandate electoral districts. While traditionally utilized to block the far right, nationalists should now benefit from a circumstantial electoral law. It provides for a second round, which is eligible not by the 2 strongest candidates, but by anyone who receives at least 12.5 percent of the votes of all registered voters. In practice, this means that over half of the 577 constituencies can compete with 3 candidates, which further complicates the situation before the second round.
In almost all districts where the first circular of the vote did not choice the winner, the next will be the National Unity candidate, usually accompanied by a left-wing rival.
The People's Front improved the NUPES score 2 years ago and advanced to the position of the main alternate to the Le Pen party, but it is inactive alternatively disappointing. There is talk of voices lost by interior conflicts and the waste of energy and resources for campaigns in districts that were inactive safe for the left – the main faces of the NFP were frequently seen in Paris and little frequently in the province. However, the attitude of the remainder of the political scene may have been a more crucial factor.
A dirty centrist run buried the Republican front?
The electoral strategy of the macronists from the beginning was to demonize the alliance of the left and convince that it was as bad as the Le Pen party. The People's Front was portrayed as completely dominated by Mélenchon, to whom a large negative electorate has been built in fresh years. The patch of dangerous anti-Semites was impeccably fastened, despite the fact that it was the RN that placed on its lists respective twelve candidates tried for racist, anti-Semitic or negative Holocaust statements, and among NFP politicians it was much harder to find authors of akin content. Sometimes they besides resorted to “newsfak”.
One of the highly inelegant plays was the release by Prime Minister Attal of a organization calculating pensions in the event of the People's Front's win and the implementation of the left-wing pension reform. Problem is, page reported highly low results, nothing to the NFP and internally contradictory. The net ran screenshots with various absurd calculations. The creation of the calculator was of course liable for the ruling party, rapidly sued by the left for defamation and manipulation.
This resulted in the partial demobilization of the left electorate, a slight strengthening of the centre, and then weakening the Republican front, or conventional alliance of democratic parties against the extremist right. For this reason, it is hard to resolve the issue of trilateral duels in which, in addition to the RN candidate, NFP and Macronists or Republicans mostly participate.
In the second round, it is adequate to take the first place, without having to win more than half the vote. While the People's Front immediately announced the withdrawal of its candidates, who went to the second circular from the 3rd place and could facilitate winning nationalistly, conservatives distanced themselves from akin concessions towards the left. However, declarations of support for candidates with akin values came from the Centre, but it is not clear whether this will besides apply to the insubordinate. besides much energy has been devoted to demonizing them so that we can get back together so smoothly.
Le Pen fights for the parliamentary majority
The possible deficiency of tactical agreement between the left and the centre will facilitate the RN's task in the next circular of the vote, which will take place on 7 July. Nationalists can already be certain of at least a fewer twelve mandates, which would have been unthinkable a decade ago – in the 2017 election they won only 8 of them. Macron's presidency paved the way for Le Pen to power, but the president will be 3 years old to effort to correct his mistakes.
According to any hypotheses, Macron deliberately sacrificed parliament so that the fresh right-wing government could disappoint the French until the next presidential election, which in the French political strategy is simply a game for everything.
Will specified a risky gambit pay off? It is hard to say, but most likely after the Sunday vote before Macron there will not be besides many another options. For a year he will not be able to dissolve the parliament again, and the method government will not get adequate support. Any co-habitation (a situation where the president and Prime Minister are from different camps) would be the 4th in the past of the V Republic, but the first involving centrists and the extremist right.
It is besides uncertain who will be the second after RN parliamentary force – the left won much more votes than the Macronists, but will be in a somewhat weaker position during the next circular of the vote. The collapse of the Republican front makes conservative voters increasingly tempted to vote nationalists against the left. Le Pen, Bardella, and Ciotti have long been calling for an alliance of the full right hand, and if they stand on their own, France can go the way of Italy. Next Sunday we'll see how real this script is.
