On Saturday, we learned that the candidate of the ruling organization for president would be elected through the primary, to which Rafał Trzaskowski and Radosław Sikorski would stand. My editorial colleague Jakub Majmurek commented on this decision in Virtual Poland, calling it “smart”. She's been working on him. Dr Anna Materska-Sosnowska, a polytolist from the University of Warsaw who believes that this is simply a good step, “infuriating chic” to PiS. I think it's precisely the opposite.
Sparing
Donald Tusk, as you know, is simply a very clever man. In fresh weeks, the evidence of this was to be, among others, evidence. suspension of the right to asylum, the continuation of the policy of the Law and Justice on the border while threatening to settle with the Law and Justice that has not yet occurred, the return in the rhetoric on climate change or the submission of force from ultra-conservatives in their own ranks, demonstrating knowing of the needs of fascism masses. However, adding a fewer questions to this awesome list of primaries.
As Majmurek writes, the next fewer weeks, during which we will be watching both candidates over and over again in weekly newspapers, journals and portals, will service “all KO, regardless of who wins this interior run”.
Is that truly the case? The last time we saw Trzaskowski laughing, worth trying to sharpen his rhetoric, winning with a “clawed fist” and being like Trump. Although, after the triumph of a Republican candidate in the United States, almost all politicians in Poland began to line up to kiss the ringing of the American governor, which can be considered a manifestation of political realism and self-awareness, it was Trzaskowski who tried to awaken a dangerous beast in himself, so that he could compete with Sikorski's proposed model of a man for wartimes, which mainly inspires compassion. Why force a politician to rebrand who has already greeted a goose?
Another scene shows that distance is not the strongest side of the president of Warsaw – the more it is not known why extend the road that would lead him to the presidential palace. During a gathering with voters in Bydgoszcz Trzaskowski spoke about Contrary to propaganda, it is not short and has more than 1.6 m in a hat. We know that Jarosław Kaczyński was likewise delicate to this point, whose figure during the run in the 1990s was to show the media as "monstrual".
The presumption that extending the competition agenda to a fratricidal conflict already in November will work in favour of the winning candidate comes from the belief that Sikorski and Trzaskowski do not have the right to lay out, while the eyes of Poles and Poles will be focused on them. That both will present industriousness and the desire to “bite grass”, which is allegedly demanded by voters. But even Champions League players are protesting against extending the calendar indefinitely present – even though their earnings in comparison with the earnings of the Polish president are staggering. And more debates, fever, financial resources and technology that will request to be utilized to carry out primaries, according to my doctrine of work, does not should be a shot at an empty goal.
The next year's presidential elections in Poland will not be an arena of large flows of electorates – the main task is to mobilise their erstwhile voters. Meanwhile, Sikorsky's support Roman Gierty already launched a propaganda Strong device Together on X – the abroad Minister is trending in the service, and the support for him was expressed by the Young Actor Platform, headed by the A friend of his son, Aleksandra K. Wiśniewska. Trzaskowski was supported by his permanent co-workers, for good 3 years preparing for the right run – not prepared for them by the leader of the casting.
I do not know how the division into a conservative faction, represented by Sikorski, and progressive supporters of Trzaskowski (let us put aside the problems of these categories for a minute in the case of both) would encourage supporters of 1 or the another to consolidate. In a month's time the PO will divided in half and although it most likely does not mean that the bitterly defeated part will stay at home in May, it sounds like a recipe for deepening interior divisions that as a live organization now do not need.
Test tapeworm
Platform leaders after the announcement of the decision argued that polls were needed to show which candidate had a better chance in a direct clash with a inactive unknown rival with PiS. This is absurd – if the PiS translates the announcement of its candidate, most of these studies and polls will be written on the water anyway. Doesn't mean we don't know how Trzaskowski would handle it.
It is worth realizing that Trzaskowski did not pop out as a favourite of presidential elections like Philip of hemp after the demolition he gave possible candidates in the local elections. His popularity was besides undiscovered at the election wave on October 15 or even democratic marches of the opposition. The first poll to give him a triumph dates back to February 2021. The defeat of Trzaskowski and Duda took only six months.
Yes, I know that "a poll democracy" and its support of current politics is simply a nightmare of modernity – a decently paid and prepared poll can be an excuse for any stupidity or oppression. However, we do not request to trust the single charts born in the heads of political machers erstwhile we have long-term trends at our disposal. And in the presidential polls since 2021 everything has changed – apart from Trzaskowski's anticipated triumph in practically all possible configurations.
When a period ago “Super Express” conducted a poll on whether the PO candidate should be Trzaskowski or Tusk, the consequence was devastating for the Prime Minister – he scored 9 percent at 84 percent (!) for the opponent. By his very presence in the polls, Trzaskowski swallowed the Hołownia – present defending himself from the nomination and preparing for election as a beheading, although 3 years ago both were given a chance to compete among themselves in the second round.
The fact that studies of sociologists and analysts (let's even bring another reports by Sławomir Sierakowski and Przemysław Sadura) indicate that the left-wing electorate would have voted for Trzaskovsky more willingly than any of the leaders from the Left, together or another PPS, besides did not have an impact on speeding up this thought option where it is now.
But the three-year poll marathon showed not only that Trzaskowski could already choice up non-scriptural and non-Confederal electorate in the first round. He besides won against all possible opponents from the Law and Justice – starting with Mateusz Morawiecki, present waiting for information from Paul’s cell Sh. and practically unlisted among possible candidates, after all subsequent figureheads whose imagination gave a hint to journalists and pollers.
That is why it is only possible to laughter erstwhile Tusk talks about the request to conduct further polls, about democracy, about the will of structures and about the request for the largest group of organization members to decide. And it is even more fun erstwhile we look at the so-far triumphs of platformer democracy and the impossible to overestimate the benefits that the parties have given Bronisław Komorowski and Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska.
Primary successes of the Civic Platform
"Every interior election makes the organization gain fresh energy. It is an excellent preparation for this final fight, which will take place in May 2025" says Jarosław Makowski in conversation with Agata Szczęsniak from OKO.press. It is truly intriguing that for this solution lying on the street, which the Platform utilized for the first time 15 years ago, no another Polish organization bent in the meantime.
Today, fewer remember this, but erstwhile Sikorski first lost to the moles of the primaries, and Tusk proclaimed everything to the fact that the presidency in Poland was mainly chandelier and veto law, the polls gave Bronisław Komorowski in the first circular a 20% advantage over the incumbent Lech Kaczyński.
Two weeks after the primary disaster in Smolensk diametrically changed the course of the chandelier race and although Komorowski yet won with the praising legacy of the right-wing game, which 3 months earlier had lost about 50 close colleagues in the aviation crash on Russian soil, given the melting advantage and further destiny of Komorowski, it is hard to admit the primaries on the Platform in 2010 as something that textbooks will compose as the most superb political thought of their times. All the more reason we will not find specified a explanation of the second approach to the format in which the triumphant over Jack Jaskowiak in the primaries of Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska was to stand in the presidential election.
Dr Materska-Sosnowska argues, however, that "the deficiency of primaries, for example, in the Democratic organization in the United States has shown what it ends". At the time of writing this text, it has not yet been a week since the U.S. election, but with a candle to look for people, phenomena and inanimate matter, who would not be accused of losing Harris. However, the explanation that the deficiency of primaries led to it seems to be 1 of the most eccentric.
They're both so cool.
Rafał Trzaskowski and Radosław Sikorski are politicians who most likely started to join the presidency in the 1990s. Their continued presence in the media in the coming weeks will not make their fresh audience – if primary in PiS they could run under the slogan “You don’t know who I am!”, so much in the PO it would be “bonjour, Sikorski/Trzaskowski, does that tell you something?” any of the most recognized politicians in Poland will not benefit much from the primary media dividend.
Moreover, in just a fewer days Trzaskowski launched a run with a bang on Stefan Starzyński's scale. As he said in conversation with Michał Sutowski Grzegorz Friday, the pre-war president of Warsaw just before the 1938 local government elections opened endless symbolic investments in the form of the National Museum and the tram on Bielana by the recently opened Bonifraterska. The exact copy of this game, which is the beginning of the fresh MSN headquarters, which I don't think Trzaskowski did much good, and the start debated for a good 100 years The tram on the Wilanów, was to supply him with quiet months of sipping cream and a consecutive way to the presidential palace.
So what happened that didn't work out? According to the media, Trzaskowski himself was to ask for primaries, prejudging the intensifying of the activities of the competitor, supported by ultraconservatives, with Gierty and Kosiniak-Kamish at the head.
He can barely be surprised, but Tusk's behaviour remains more interesting. Just Two weeks ago, the media reportedthat there was an option on the table for support by the PSL of part of the PO's postulates in exchange for support for Sikorski's candidacy. Tusk, of course, could not say "all back, we take Radek, Trzaskowski is young, he will wait". He would be instantly crushed, even by his own voters, as a politician completely addicted to conservatives, developers and Opus Dei. In addition, he would be accused of fearing the increasing position of Trzaskowski in his own party, that he would become a Polish version of Macron, which Professor Rafal Chwedoruk suggests today, And after his eventual win, the Prime Minister would besides lose a crowning argument justifying the passiveness of his own government, or veto of the writer's president.
Thus, the primary decision can be regarded as a "smart play" or as a signal that extremist conservatives present mean much more than the top pessimists expected. As a way forward and dominating media space, or as evidence that Tusk is putting individual ambitions, fears and animosities ahead of the state's interests during the war with our neighbors. The interpretations may vary: possibly the primaries will end in full success, and the winner will combine his own and another electorates in the nirvana of national reconciliation and in June 2025 no 1 will remember the doubts of the undersigned. However, if there were stairs on the KO's way to the presidency, I would look at the beginning of the way to disaster in this decision of the Prime Minister.
