On Sunday, at the Krakow church of redemptorists at a gathering with the sympathizers of Radio Maryja performed Przemysław Czarnek. erstwhile asked about the PiS Action Plan, announcedIf the organization candidate wins the election next year, PiS “it will not wait until 2027”, only it will take power immediately. On Monday, an interview with Jarosław Kaczyński was published in Karnowski's weekly “Sieci”, in which the president of the Law and Justice Office stated that the constitution in Poland was no longer in force and that after the change of power, a fresh 1 would should be adopted, and if the constitutional majority of 2 thirds did not gather, it would be in her place to adopt a “replacement act”.
Both of these statements have escalated even more in fresh months already tensed the rhetoric of the main opposition party. In consequence to the words of Czarnek and Kaczyński there were even opinions that PiS politicians were announcing a coup. Is there truly anything to fear?
Nigger's game is in the rules...
Czarnek's statements can inactive be defended as an announcement of a sharp but constitutionally based political game. The erstwhile Minister of Education, developing his thought of "taking over power" after the presidential election, made it clear that this would happen as a consequence of talks with the PSL and the Confederate, which he suggested were already taking place.
In another words, Czarnek announced the triumph PiS candidate in presidential election will be a catalyst leading to the reversal of alliances in the present Sejm. Theoretically, a new, majority coalition, supported by the clubs of PiS, PSL and Confederacy, could be formed. Together they have 240 seats, so 9 more than the absolute majority in the Sejm. So specified a coalition could arise, even if any of the MPs of the people or Confederates were not ready to support it – especially since there are 4 more MPs of the Kukiz ’15 wheel in the retreat.
Such a reversal of alliances would surely be profoundly disappointing for voters of the current coalition, in many of them it would make a sense of deception and even betrayal by the PSL. surely the peoples, erstwhile entering into an alliance with the Law and Justice, would abuse the trust of people who supported them on October 15 last year or, more brutally speaking, would compromise their mandate. All the more so, as part of their coalition with Holovnia, they argued that only a strong 3rd Way would defend us from the 3rd word of the Law and Justice.
However, the mandate of the MP and senator is free in the Polish strategy – for better or worse. Changing the front by the peoples in the event of winning the Law and Justice would so be without prejudice to constitutional rules. Another case, how likely is this scenario? Although the politicians of the ruling coalition can besides be heard with fearing voices, the PiS candidate's triumph in the presidential election is unlikely, and secondly he may not solve problems with the deficiency of coalition capacity of this party. He will not even dispel the memory of how the Law and Justice have dealt in the past with specified partners as Self-defense and the Government Agreement.
...but Kaczyński's words origin concern
The words of Jarosław Kaczyński are much more disturbing. The leader of PiS not only states in an interview with the Karnowski brothers that the constitution in Poland is no longer in force, but besides asked by them whether, after the change of power, it is not adequate to simply “start following it”, he says that it is not. "Something that fell apart, which turned out to be incredibly weak, even clay, cannot be the basis of the system," he says.
Interestingly, as examples of the fact that the constitution does not work, Kaczyński gives changes to TVP and the national prosecutor's office. Neither TVP nor national prosecutors are constitutional bodies. Rules giving the national prosecutor almost complete control of the prosecution's work and preventing its cancellation without the President's approval were introduced just before the PiS's losers election. You can argue about the mode of making changes in TVP or in the prosecutor's office, but these changes did not violate the constitutional foundations of Poland in anything – although they hit the interests of the Law and Justice in 2 institutions, where, as Kaczyński counted, the parties will be able to concrete their influences long after the losing elections.
What is most worrying, Kaczyński announces the adoption of a "new fundamental act" "maybe a substitute" pending the emergence of a fresh constitutional majority. It would be completely unconstitutional. The fresh majority of the Sejm cannot conclude that the Constitution is no longer in force and without a constitutional majority to adopt a fresh one, even of a transitional nature.
This fresh "essential act" would include, as Kaczyński said, the institution of the Council of State, which would have the power to defend institutions specified as TVP and the prosecution against illegal takeover in the process of changing power. In addition, the Council of State would complement its composition by co-optation, apart from any democratic control.
Kaczyński's idea, if it were realized in this form, would fundamentally end Poland's adventure with liberal democracy. I would have concreted all the key institutions in the country – courts, prosecutors, public media – and would have put a peculiar institution with subjugated forces in which only the people designated by the organization would sit. specified a strategy is simply a recipe for either a real monoparty dictatorship or a civilian war.
Is this just about consolidating the ranks?
If Kaczyński expressed himself in this way as the leader of a organization aiming to power, 1 should be afraid. However, it speaks as the leader of the formation in the deep defensive, retreating to pre-established positions, acting in a consolidation and close-up mode for hard times.
Throughout the past of the 3rd Polish Kaczyński, erstwhile he lost power and hope for its fast recovery, he radicalized. After the fall of Olszewski's government, he furiously attacked Wałęsa, organizing marches on Belvedere, where Bolk's puppet was burned and attacked his opponents as agents. After Smolensk he accused Tusk and PO of being liable for the death of president Kaczyński, PiSowska's propaganda even went to the proposition that Tusk might have participated in any unholy Smolenian conspiracy together with Putin. Since the PiS lost the election last October, Kaczyński repeats that the PO is an ‘external party’, commissioned by Germany to destruct the Polish state and pacify the opposition, utilizing torture on specified persons as a certain active in the affair of the Justice Fund priest.
The closer Kaczyński came to power, the more he softened his tone. erstwhile he took over, in practice he did not draw the consequences from his most extremist statements from the times of opposition.
It cannot be excluded that today, too, the announcements of the creation of the “Council of State” – which present sound a bit like the fantasies of a bankrupt man about what he will spend his billions on erstwhile he regains his luck – not so much express the real systemic plans of the Law and Justice, but they are a tool for mobilising and consolidating the electorate. Kaczyński admits, in a conversation with Karnowski, that present it is crucial to consolidate environments that do not agree with the current policy.
How long can we keep the PiS behind the cordon?
On the another hand, it is besides impossible to simply ignore what Kaczyński says, the announcement that if he regains the authorities, he will not respect any constitutional rules, due to the fact that these in his opinion no longer apply. As long as the Law and Justice organization does not violate the law, the state should not overreact to specified rhetoric, it is besides hard present to pretend that the Law and Justice organization is acting as a normal, respectful opposition rule, with which, for example, it could be agreed on the resolution of the wedge which, as a consequence of the reforms of the Ziobra Ministry and the President's law firm, it has offered in the judiciary.
The only hope is that akin rhetoric, even if it consolidates the ranks of the PiS, at the same time repelles the normals and takes the PiS coalition ability, consolidating the current "cordon coalition". The question that seems crucial present is whether it will be able to keep the Law and Justice behind the cordon until it forces the right hand from almost insurrectionary force today, and surely at least verbally rejecting constitutional rules and the right of opponents to participate in a democratic game, in a formation capable of playing according to rules, play the function of opposition and even organization of power, without turning over the table.
