Local elections are getting closer. shortly we will find out what the lists of the parties forming the coalition will look like on October 15. There are many indications that at least in the elections to the provincial Sejm they will go in 2 blocks: on the 1 hand the 3rd Road, on the another Left And KO.
Of all the forces of the ruling camp, the Left seems to be the most keen to go to the local elections as wide a coalition as possible. "We are the ruling coalition present and in specified a expression we should run for local and European elections. Voters They gave us a mandate to cooperate, waiting for her. That's why the Left made talks with all the partners, but only the Civic Coalition expressed its desire. It is not besides late for Mr Władysław Kosiniak-Kamish and Mr Simon Holovnia to change their minds and go together as a large coalition. I encourage this due to the fact that that's what voters want" – said in an interview with PAP Robert Biedron.
This fresh Left attitude evokes mixed feelings of left-wing commentariat. There are voices that NL throws a towel at the local elections by giving up their own run-off, risking a complete collapse with the Liberals. The request to separate from a stronger, liberal partner is indeed and will be a problem for the Left in this word – but just this year's local elections, especially to provincial Seyms, are not necessarily the place where the Left could effectively accentuate its independency and distance from KOs.
It's a killer policy.
This is the consequence of 2 factors: the inactive comparatively low support of the Left, oscillating around 10%, and the ordination in the election to the provincial seymites, which is highly unfavourable to letters with little support.
We elect provincial councillors in much smaller constituency than Members. And the less Members are elected in the territory with proportional ordination – in addition to counting mandates by the d’Hondt method – the greater the natural electoral threshold. Natural, or 1 that actually translates into tickets.
The constituency election with a tiny number of mandates premium the lists with the top support. The weaker the list has support, the more likely it is that, despite exceeding the electoral threshold allowing participation in the allocation of mandates, it will not gain any.
This hazard in this year's election to the provincial Seymites is peculiarly dense on the Confederate and the Left, as 2 parliamentary forces with the lowest polling support. The Confederacy does not have much chance to limit this risk, the Left may effort to take a joint start with coalition partners.
A joint start with the KO would defend her from the script of crashing in the Seymites by a natural threshold, and the full government block would defend her from the “drew” of left-wing voters. Which, in a number of jurisprudences, where the Law and Justice will keep power, will find very tiny differences in support and the number of mandates, may prove peculiarly important.
Like in conversation with “The diary of the Legal Gazette” said the political scientist from the University of Lodz, Maciej Onasz, a coalition with a stronger partner reduces the likelihood of 1 more adverse to the Left of possible developments: a situation in which it introduces into the Sejm 1 or 2 of its provincial councillors, but turns out to be unnecessary KO and the 3rd Road to build the majority. If the same 2 councillors entered the joint list of KO and Left, 1 could at least argue that the votes were cast on the full coalition and jointly, according to the commitment given to the voters, it should now form the board of the voivodship.
A coalition with a larger partner – either a full force forming a government majority, or at least a KO – could so be an optimal solution for the Left, provided it does not look like its full surrender to a larger partner. On the symbolic level, the Left should so fight to guarantee that this is not just a start from the PO list, for example by the name of the committee. At the level of concretes – with a reasonable number of places on the list and guarantees of left-wing local policies within the framework of the future management of the voivodship.
If this were to be played in negotiations, it would be worth sacrificing the image gains that the left-wing list would give itself. All the more so, due to the fact that present the left does not have – at least in terms of the level of the voivodship – a concept of local policy distinguishing it from the civilian Coalition.
What about the Together Party?
Nor does it seem that there is any peculiar opposition to a akin agreement in the activism or among the voters of the Left. The biggest problems with him could be the organization Together, the most ideologically expressive part of the Seym, coalition club Left. Together, it supported the Tusk Government, but refused to enter it, arguing this deficiency of agreement on providing funds for the implementation of the key policy formation. The most faithful electorate, and especially the act of this party, is defined in a strong contrast to liberals from the PO.
Together, however, he does not intend to issue a letter to the Sejm on his own this year. Last year, in 2018, the organization achieved a nationwide consequence of 1.57 percent in these elections, only in 2 provinces – Warmian-Masurian and Pomeranian – won over 2 percent of the votes, besides in 2 – Świętokrzyskie and Lubelskie – did not gain even 1 percent. This year's results would be similar.
The organization participates in talks of the fresh Left with the Platform about the start of a joint letter from the Sejm. It does not exclude that at least in any voivodships its candidates will appear common lists of KO and fresh Left.
The question is whether the Civic Coalition will want candidates together to the Sejm on specified common lists. The Biejat and Zandberg organization can be seen in local PO structures as besides far tilted to the left for the party's electorate, belonging yet to the Chadeck global Division. Unlike the fresh Left, Together does not make a government with the Platform, it is in a incomprehensible gap between government and opposition for many voters.
Distribution Platform
In general, the issue remains open, as the Platform will yet respond to the left proposal. The decision and the proposal that the Left will receive will depend on how the Tusk organization will resolve the dilemma internally: whether in the elections to the Seymists it is more curious in emphasizing dominance towards the coalition's partners on October 15, or on the top weakening of the Law and Justice.
From the point of view of the PO, an optimal solution for this dilemma would be 1 list of coalitions on October 15 in the parliamentary elections. specified a list, naturally centered around the strongest party, would emphasize Platform's dominance in the government camp and importantly increase the probability of reflection of as many seismics as possible from the PiS as possible compared to the starting script from 3 or 4 lists.
However, Poland 2050 and PSL decided that they would run for the parliamentary elections together, as the 3rd Road. In this situation, the Platform has a dilemma: whether to share seats in its letters with the left or to effort to fight for a consequence that will let it to take power in many provinces without the left – which would strengthen the dominance of the Tusk organization over the remaining members of the coalition on October 15, but could cost it power in one, 2 Seyms, where left-wing voices will be wasted by a advanced natural threshold.
The political interest of the full government coalition would order the Platform and the Left to agree. The launch of ruling parties on 2 lists could be the optimal script in the seismics for the full power camp. He would let the 3rd Road to fight over the disillusioned radicalism of the PiS more right-wing voters who would never vote on the list with Tusk or Biedronia's people. On the another hand, 2 lists would defend the coalition from the trap of advanced natural thresholds in tiny districts.
If there's any difference, it's in the cities.
The agreement at the level of the Sejm does not necessarily mean that the Left and the KO should go together at each level of the local election: in all city, municipality, district.
On the contrary, municipal elections – both at the level of presidents and municipal councils – could be a good chance for the Left this year to make a difference to the Platform. At the level of the city, it is much easier to present to voters a proposal for a left-wing local policy, which is clearly different from that conducted by the close Local Government Platform.
While the left is improbable to have a chance present to fight for the presidency in large centres, a good run of their supported candidates may be politically percentaged in the future, as well as making concrete profits in the form of city council seats right now.
There is simply a field for the Left to build its subjectivity within a democratic camp – in the Seyms 1 will most likely gotta agree. The question of whether the Left would want to build its independency at the level of cities or districts – in this substance there may be divisions in the left-wing coalition and very interesting configurations in different cities.
