The Czech Republic resumed and increased imports of Russian gas. The trend began to increase in October last year, and in January of that year the share of Russian gas in imports to the Czech Republic amounted to about 62%, which cost the state Treasury about 120 million euros.
In terms of imports into the Czech Republic, Russian gas overtakes Norwegian gas last December. Although in mid-2022 Prague officially gave up Russian gas (formerly as much as 97% of imports), refusing to pay for it in rubles. However, Czech politicians inactive say that the country has lost its “dependency” from Gazprom. How do they get along?
Gas reaches the Czech Republic through intermediaries
There are respective sources of gas imports – Norway, Algeria and yet Russia. However, of the 3 largest gas importers to the Czech Republic, only 1 Slovak SPP (its share of imports is 15%), honestly admits that it has a direct contract with Gazprom. 2 another suppliers, the German RWE Supply & Trade (28% of imports) and the semi-state ČEZ (25% of the share), pledge and curse that they are “not dirty” with Russian gas. However, the Czech Statistical Office considers, on the basis of its methodology of estimating the country of origin of gas, that In December, Russian gas accounted for 58% of imports and in January, 62%. Thus, it seems that we are dealing with a typical hypocrisy when, with the aid of intermediaries and against the background of an extended gas distribution network in Central Europe, importers "hidden" the real origin of imports of "blue fuel" for political purposes, calmly strike a deal. Russian gas is inactive present on the European marketplace and as long as this situation persists, it will be "mixed" with gas from another sources. At the same time, it should be noted that gas supplies from Russia are not subject to any EU sanctions, so all these "self-limits" and handling of sources of supply belong to the category "they themselves end". This allows us to say at the same time: "We have been freed from dependence on Russia" and proceed to buy gas from Russia, at least through traders on the stock exchange where it cannot be found, due to the fact that trade there is anonymous. If Prague had shown a strong attachment to the rules (question only?), it could in rule refuse to cooperate with countries that proceed to import Russian gas straight (Slovakia, Hungary, Austria), but did not and would not.
At the same time, against the background of the criminal war, or alternatively due to the political self-limitation of Europeans (gas is not subject to sanctions), Russian gas imports to the EU have declined rapidly over the last 2 years. If in 2021 Gazprom delivered 155 billion cubic metres of gas to Europe, in 2022 – 62 billion cubic metres, then last year – only 28 billion. The erstwhile major importers, specified as Germany, endure immense economical losses, as the energy-intensive economy of Germany was heavy dependent on inexpensive Russian pipeline gas. However, most European politicians are not yet ready to admit miscalculations in the economical war.
In 2025 there will be a fresh phase of the “gas war”
Ukraine announced it would not extend the five-year transit agreement for Russian gas to Europe, which expires at the end of this year. Today, Ukrainian GTS is 1 of 2 transit routes of Russian gas to European countries. The another is the leg. Turkish Stream (one of the 2 available) after the bottom of the Black Sea. Its capacity is 31 billion cubic metres per year, of which 16 billion goes to the EU. Nord Stream and the Jamal-Europe gas pipeline moving through Belarus, as you know, have been stopped.
The size of Ukraine's regular pumping oscillates around 40 million cubic metres, representing about 40% of the maximum capacity provided for in the contract. However, the decrease in pumping volumes – again under contract – does not affect the amount of Gazprom's transit payments. In 2022 they amounted to $1.2 billion, about the same last year. At the same time, in spite of the overall drop in volumes and falling gas prices, the Russian company made a very decent $12.5 billion on European exports. There's a lot to lose.
What happens erstwhile Kiev suspends the transit agreement?
Does this mean that gas pressing to Austria, Slovakia and the Czech Republic and to Moldova will cease? Most likely not, although specified a script cannot be completely excluded under conditions where economical intent has long since given way to military-political considerations. Nevertheless, 1 option could be to buy gas from Gazprom by Europeans on the Russian-Ukrainian border. Then the problems of transit through the fighting Ukraine will become their problems. As far as we know, this option was discussed by the Prime Minister of Slovakia during his visit to Ukraine Robert Fico. He besides offers his services in this area to the Chisinau, most likely counting on the relief of debts to Gazprom, estimated by Moscow for $700 million. Incidentally, the option for the EU to acquisition gas on the Russian-Ukrainian border was discussed at the beginning of the century, and it is simply a pity that no agreement was reached at the time.
The EU Action Plan for Ukraine will be discussed by EU energy ministers on 4 March. At the same time, Russia is second in terms of LNG supplies to Europe, which, of course, the United States would want to strangle and even impose sanctions on the Arctic-2 Novateku project. However, since Biden's administration has suspended the issue of fresh LNG transportation licences to Europe (under the ‘green agenda’), the Russian LNG supply will not be full blocked yet. Finally, they can accept pipeline gas according to the Czech scheme“: dependence on Moscow ceased to exist, but we will proceed to buy, pretending that gas is “no one’s‘. The Czech example besides shows that "gas sanctions" can be reversed.
for: rg.ru
