I barely expressed in a column Joythat there was no longer a poll giving most of the PiS+Confederation coalition, unfortunately, at the end of the year specified appeared. The good news is that the Confederates are growing, not Pis, which reduces the d’hondtov Pis bonus.
Before I explain it – a historical figure, why we have specified a unusual ordination. Its roots lie in the 1990s, erstwhile the main axis of dividing Polish politics was postcomuna/postsolidarity.
The experience of the first fragmented Sejm led to the agreement that the ordination should be strengthened. It was exacerbated by the AWS-UW coalition.
At the end of their word of office, both groups fell below the threshold. The all-powerful (alleged) “Gazeta Wyborcza” did her best to defend the Union of Freedom – they finished with an awesome 3.2% score.
New government outside the thresholds besides introduced very tiny districts, from 7 to 19 mandates. These thresholds form a ‘real threshold’ in a seven-mandate ellipse exceeding 10%.
The SLD led in law everywhere, but Tarnow, where the PSL was first. If the results were converted according to d’Hondt, they would get respective twelve more tickets.
No 1 at the time thought that Leszek Miller would bring his group from 41% to 11% in 1 term, and desperate ideas specified as “The Cucumber for the President!” at all below the threshold. That's why they introduced d'Hondt.
It is interesting that in the past of Polish ordination carpas held Christmas Eve 3 times. In turn, AWS-UW, SLD-PSL and PO-PSL adopted rules unfavourable to weaker groups, becoming their first victim.
The unusual thing is that these changes were usually approved by PSL, which besides has a threshold problem. I say the reason was a fizier, of whom small is said: territory boundaries artificially advance provincial voters.
The axis of the "province-metropolis" is present more crucial than the "communa/postcommuna" or even the "right/left". Kaczyński is the first leader to draw logical conclusions from this.
The PiS has been positioned from the beginning as a ‘party of the province’. They don't usage the word, but semantically, that's what “we have put on average Poland”. It's like there's something different in cities over 100,000.
How does it work? Take Gdynia. It has 244,000 inhabitants, ruled by an unscripted president. But in the parliamentary elections, Gdynia is artificially attached to the territory of Słupsk, together with Bytow, Chojnice and Lębork.
If the districts were to be divided differently and, for example, make the Tri-City 2 urban districts, the bonuses for the first 2 places would be given to the "party of the metropolis" – and yes, he gets one, the second giving the "party of the province". Warsaw agglomerations could besides be divided into e.g. left-coast and right-coast, while Konstancin and Łomianki were cut off to melt them among the Mazovia villages over Bug and Bzura.
In the final election, Platform won in 5 districts, PiS in 36. The bonus from d’Hondt does not always get first place, but by trivializing it can be said that the PiS had 7 times the opportunity.
The dilatation ordination of many large-town voters in provincial districts. If it wasn't for that, the PiS wouldn't have an independent majority in 2019, or even in 2015. And that's Tusk's fault, due to the fact that the last changes were introduced in 2011.
Hence my scepticism towards the thought of a "united opposition". First, I do not believe that anti-script electorates can be summed up – that erstwhile Tusk and Zandberg take a photograph together, their voters will besides throw themselves in the arms.
Secondly, in this way the opposition will only win even more where it wins all the time, in Warsaw, Gdańsk and Poznań. There he will just get the same bonus from d’Hondt again as in 2019 and the balance will be zero (pero, pero-o-o...).
The division into the metropolis and state is so strong that it seems improbable that in Siedlce the same organization as in Warsaw will win. Moreover, the more we are mobilized, the more the “they” will be mobilised – and our top ally will now simply be the apathy and frustration of the writing camp.
What the opposition needs most now is simply a organization that can take Pis' support from the provincial electorate. It's not that I like PSL – far from it – it's that classical anti-script groups seem besides unambiguously large city to me.
This division won't last forever. He wasn't seen in the election 20 years ago. It is artificially generated by 2 factors: firstly, ordination; secondly, commercial media.
Once the inhabitants of large cities were an attractive target, so all media (except the non-commercial Radio Maryja) sought them. Today, together with equalizing the standard of surviving and consumer aspirations, it makes no sense.
Except it won't change in the next year or two. So as far as these elections are concerned, it seems to me that unifying the opposition is not a good thought to overthrow the Law and Justice.