Disclosure Tomasz Szmydt as Belarusian or the Russian agent has narrowed the debate on the European Union, the challenges it faces, and about our place in it for the slogan "either with Russia or with Tusk".
This surely spoils the pre-election PiS game, which gradually tightened the anti-European course. This step was crucial due to the fact that the support for the EU in Poland was always very high, up to 90%. extremist anti-European slogans would not aid the Law and Justice, alternatively harm. What's different is cooking frogs.
Untended for respective years, criticism – a small substantive, duplicating propaganda coming from Moscow, but rhetorically strong, for example, given by Prof. Zdzisław Krasnodębski and nuanced by the more subdued Euroscepticism of Mr Karski, convincing that the times of Euro-enthusiasm were behind us, brought – according to the latest figures of CBOS – a decline in support for the EU up to 77 %. It is inactive 77%, but the decline is visible.
No more frog cooking?
However, anti-Europeanism, anti-Ukrainianity and pro-Russianism are glare on almost all episode of the PiS. Their next device is agricultural protests. The support for them the Law and Justice besides graduated. At first, he supported unofficially, then indirectly, although it was hard to see his politicians in the demonstrations, the Confederate MPs were present. But on the last Friday Jarosław Kaczyński became the chief Polish farmer, defending the Polish village from a "green whip".
The decline in support for the EU is the strongest in the Confederate electorate – 51% is behind Polexit. 63% inactive powerfully support Poland's presence in the EU.
In democratic electorates, the level of support for the EU continues to be above 90%, and polarising razors are so strong in this perspective. And despite the fact that support for agricultural demands went across organization divisions and reached 78% of support.
In view of the discovery of Szmydt in Belarus and the sharp division among pro-European and pro-Russian citizens, Kaczyński will be much more hard to sow grain of average Euroscepticism. Especially since there is simply a war in Ukraine and the media are beginning to emergence to civilian opposition scenes against the “Russian law” adopted by the governing organization in Georgia, according to which NGOs subsidised by Western organizations will receive the stigma of “foreign agents”. It does not take long to remember that PiS besides called NGOs he disliked and refused to subsidize.
The tactics utilized so far to make strong comments about the EU as the end of the Polish statehood and the subsequent calming that no 1 is planning any Polesites will now be impossible. due to the fact that besides the Prime Minister, to whom the most severe accusations have been made for years, is now fueling anxiety, indicating the attitude towards the EU as a litmus paper of betrayal of Polish interests.
Russia is an hostility towards the West, especially towards the Union, contempt for the regulation of law and all minorities, the stubbornness of the economy and the media, legalized state corruption, religion in power services, the regulation of peculiar services. Open your eyes and look for similarities.
— Donald Tusk (@donaldtusk) May 14, 2024
There's no place in the middle.
Therefore, Kaczyński remains either to translate from erstwhile meetings with KGB agent Wasin, or to sharpen anti-European rhetoric. This course is almost impossible to keep without the hazard of going to a Russian onus, due to the fact that there is no place in the middle. While sitting on a razor, Simon Holovnia tries to make it, Who Criticizes The thought of creating a committee to analyse Russian influences and conservatively connects over divisions.
Reactions to these attempts from KO supporters show that on this razor it will be hard for him to balance, and Tusk's tactics take distant political fuel besides from government coalitions.
Tusk thus plays hard on the 1 hand on the fear of Russia, on the another hand conservatively not to irritate and mobilize this anti-EU and pro-agricultural electorate. It has “ten hours” for farmers, it seals borders, continuing the policy of the PiS, slows down the separation of the Church from the state, fails to repay the credit drawn in women's environments, announces the shields for the poorest, erstwhile energy prices rise, but at the same time restores VAT to life, tempers aspirations by talking about war and explaining that now money has to go on defense, and by the way traditionally looking for bonuses for entrepreneurs.
So it is not only the Holovnia, but besides the Left, whose MPs prove to be not very causative, not only in matters of women's rights or partnerships, but besides as a representation of the communities that saw their hope in them: people from migration, teaching and perieducational, parental and labour circles. The announcements of the reforms are, but it is heard from all sides that there is no consultation that there is no dialog that populists had hoped for after taking power, feeling co-authors of the victory. The October elections were until late a triumph for civilian society, and now it is more and more visible that it was only a triumph for the KO.
Can we go back to the past?
It seems that Tusk at all costs wants to show that it is impossible to regulation Poland better than the Liberals did before 8 years of the regulation of the Law and Justice. That the triumph of the Kaczyński organization was due either to the activity of abroad services, or that the electorate had fallen in his head from prosperity and "warm water in the tap." I'm certain there was no blame for the liberals themselves.
Perhaps this return to the past is besides intended to make the GOK government consolidate and accomplish triumph over populism in the presidential election. It is clear that fear has not yet ended, the PiS inactive has an advantage in the polls, and the horror of authoritarianism and Polexit are current. 1 can safely presume that the hybrid war will develop, 1 must number on the weakening of Ukraine, or even Trump's victory, and in specified a case, possibly the efficient actions of the government, which does not should be discussed in the group for a long time, will be better for security. The word is that the best for hard times will be governments with an established Liberal advantage.
But will the populists yet be defeated by the forces of the liberal electorate itself, whose mobilisation of the most active part already after the election decreased? This trend can be seen even after far less signatures under citizen petitions.
Too exuberant ambition and sense of the merits of the electorate do not gotta aid rule. It may be easier to regulation erstwhile attendance is not excessive, but adequate to legitimize power. However, with the clear mobilisation of the European right hand may not only number the enemy's ranks and play their demobilization, but number their own ranks, not abandoning them and ignoring them?
